Crush Live Poker Podcast No. 426 "Run it Twice!"

Bart Hanson

In this special non hand episode of the Crush Live Poker Podcast Bart discusses the EV of running the cards more than one and tells multiple stories of incidents dealing with running the cards multiple times that he has witnessed over the past 15 years.

https://crushlivepoker.com/podcasts/run-it-twice

Episode reference about the Harry and Chris incident is here: https://crushlivepoker.com/podcasts/no-hands-just-harry

joshofalltrades

A helpful analogous example to show that probabilities don't change:

Suppose you and 5 friends are playing Russian roulette with a nerf gun where you don't spin the chamber between each turn. Which position is most advantageous?

Player 1 = 1/6.
Player 2 = (1/6 (player 1 lost)*0 (no more darts) + (5/6 (player 1 survived)*1/5 (1 dart of 5 remaining chambers) = 1/6
Player 3 = (1/6)*0*0 + (5/6)(1/5)*0 + (5/6)(4/5)(1/4) = 20/120 =1/6
...

What if you add more darts? Say there are 2 darts loaded into the nerf gun.

Player 1 = 2/6 = 1/3
Player 2 = (2/6)(1/5) + (4/6)(2/5) = 2/30+8/30 = 10/30 = 1/3
Player 3 = (2/6)(1/5)*0 + (2/6)(4/5)(1/4) + (4/6)(2/5)(1/4) + (4/6)(3/5)(2/4) = 8/120 + 8/120 + 24/120 = 40/120 = 1/3
...