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5/5 tough spot with AK deep vs whale

SUYAPASUYAPA Posts: 91Subscriber

Hero (1,8k) sitting on this juicy table for like 6 hours waiting to get in a good spot with the whale and to get a piece before he leaves. Was on the bad end of card distribution and couldnt make a pair the few times i was involved in a hand with him.

Villain (~1,2k) already donated like 5k to the table. Definitely not stupid. He didnt overplay hands, just liked to bluff and play huge pots and didnt care too much about the money. Sometimes he had it, sometimes he didnt. People started calling him down lite and he adjusted by having it more often because of that when he put money into the pot.

Rarely raised himself but limp/called a lot. But also had a fold button pre. The times he bluffed before i saw him x/r smaller (always 3x) otf and then barrel turn and river. But on completely different boards that favor his limp-caling range.

The table was also very passive pre. I think i was the only one that 3b a few times.

Shortstack in mp raises to 25, hero 3b in bb to 100 with AK, villain cold calls in bb (first time), mp calls.

Flop (305) A 9 7

hero cbets 100, villain snap raises to 400 with 700 behind, mp folds, hero

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Comments

  • GarlandGarland Posts: 565Subscriber
    I’m not sure anything but all-in is correct. Win against AQ, tie to AK, lose to a few sets and suited combos of A9/A7/97. Throw in a few T8s & 86s for bluffs and I think it’s a call.
  • ChaosInEquilibriumChaosInEquilibrium Posts: 124Subscriber
    edited October 25

    IMO it’s either call or fold. I’d lean fold unless you’ve seen Villain grossly overvalue hands, or you think he can have weak hands like JTs as a bluff.

    Basically if Villain is a semi-aware player he should realize that you have AK a lot, and he should never raise here with AQ.


    so he has AK, 99, 77.


    is he cold calling a 3bet with A9s or A7? Maybe? If he is a fold button pre, he should rarely have those hands. Give him 1/4 of the available combos, so 1 combo of 2 pair.


    is he cold calling a 3bet with 86s or T8s? If he has a fold button pre, he should never have this hands. Maybe give him 1/4 of his combos that will raise the flop. So 2 combos of bluffs.


    so we have 66% equity against 2 combos of bluffs, 50% equity against 6 combos of AK, and 4% equity against 7 combos of 2pair/sets.

    So our equity is {66*2+50*6+4*7}/15=460/15=31%

    we are faced with a pot committing decision here on the flop. So we can treat Villains bet as as all-in. We’re risking 1000 to win 500, so we need 40% equity to continue.


    Under the assumption he has no AQ as a flop raise, it’s an easy fold.


    If you give him AQ as a flop raise then I guess we can call and evaluate river. Even with all combos of AQ we’re still not an equity favorite, so I don’t think shove is the right move.

    Thanked by 2Steveo76 CycleV
  • NathanGuentzelNathanGuentzel Posts: 155Member
    edited October 26

    Working through range problem and wondering..hero is in the SB? Text says hero and villain are both in BB.

    What are the hero's suits? Do you remember?

    This is a similar hand to a recent podcast!

    I would like to run the suits for combos. Thanks.

    It's actually not a big deal I guess after reviewing.

    Here's the real important question that Garland and CIE didn't mention...This was a 3 way pot on the flop!

    The OP calls the villain a whale, but speaks of him as anything but...he has characteristics of a lag.

    We see the flop with 1100 in the villain's stack...and how short is the MP player? He has yet to be heard from on this flop when the villain raised. That is pretty important to me. Obviously he folds out, but he could have all the nut hands except AA preflop.

    OTF, I would not expect many bets without an Ace out of the hero's position. That is why I am a bit confused by the villain's raise. He should have no problem getting his money in the pot with a strong hand, as if he called the flop it leaves only 2PSB left. His raise will also likely fold out all but the best holdings from MP. His flop raise of the PF3 bettor looks extremely strong and it looks like it is going to cost the hero his stack to find out.

    I am in the camp of making an exploitable fold here. If this was heads up OTF, I can get behind at least a call, but I don't like calling here and having 1100 in the pot and villain has 700 left. Our hand is really not getting better very often and there are not many outright bluffs.

  • SUYAPASUYAPA Posts: 91Subscriber
    edited October 27
    Sorry i was in the sb and had A K

    MP folded otf and had a stack of about 300.

    I said whale because he wasnt a strong player and lost a lot of money which he didnt care about.
  • SUYAPASUYAPA Posts: 91Subscriber
    Im not sure if we should go broke in this spot with TPTK for 250bb.

    Reasons:

    -it was a 3b pot
    -he wasnt stupid, so he knows that i have an ace (AK or AQs) a lot in a 3b pot on A97r
    -he wasnt unaware and he wasnt overplaying hands so we cant expect villain to raise and go broke with A5o here
    -people started calling him down a lot and lite because he was bluffing so much and like i said he adjusted to that
    -the times he bluffed he always raised smaller (3x) and barreled t+r, now it was 4x. Maybe to make it look more like a bluff especially on this flop.
    -what i didnt mention was that my read (or intuition) was that he wanted me to think that he is bluffing. His snap raise and the way he threw the chips in the middle. It felt like he had it this time and wanted me to disbelieve him and go broke with an ace.

    Otf i had to make the decision if i want to go broke with my hand because he is obviously raising otf to gii ott. So i kinda treated the raise like an allin. Calling otf to fold on a deuce turn is no option.

    All in all i felt like tossing a coin even though i lean more towards a fold because of the reasons mentioned above.
  • ChaosInEquilibriumChaosInEquilibrium Posts: 124Subscriber
    edited October 27

    Seems like sound reasoning on your part. So what were the results of the hand?

  • SUYAPASUYAPA Posts: 91Subscriber

    I folded and villain didnt seem to be happy about it.

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