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Is this set river value bet too thin?

GarlandGarland Posts: 565Subscriber
$620 effective, my stack. $2/$5 blinds.

7-handed. Main villain is generally passive rec player, but makes suspect raises pre-flop.

Pre-flop (7 players - $7) UTG limps, I am in LJ with 6 6 and overlimp, HJ main villain makes a small $20 raise which I interpret as “for fun”, very loose aggressive CO calls, Button calls, BB calls and UTG calls. I consider a squeeze, but just opt to just call.

Flop (6 players - $117 after drop): 7 6 4 ♠. Checks to me, I bet $50, HJ calls, CO calls.

Turn (3 players - $267 after drop): J. I bet $180, HJ calls pretty quickly, and CO folds.

River (2 players - $627 after drop) 3, I have $370 left and bet??.

(a) As played, is this an all-in or check evaluate?
(b) What if the villain who calls me down was in BB or UTG and checks the river to me. Would you still value bet?

Comments

  • NathanGuentzelNathanGuentzel Posts: 155Member

    I don't think there is much to evaluate here @Garland. If he's is a passive rec, he probably is not betting a worse hand for you with a one liner straight and backdoor flush draw coming home. He either made a Jack on the turn, or he made a flush on the end, most likely. Either way, the river makes it tough to get paid off. I am not a fan of check calling. It is possible to get paid for a small bet by a Jack.

    As for the BB or Utg, those should be different ranges. BB can have the straight or flush and Utg is likely to have some type of broadway flush versus anything else. I am less likely to bet against either of those positions, given the manner which they saw the flop and it played through turn.

  • ChaosInEquilibriumChaosInEquilibrium Posts: 124Subscriber
    edited October 26

    We lose to at least 10 or so combos, as far as I can tell. They are A5s, Ah7h, 7h8h, 8h9h, 9hTh, maybe 55.


    its not clear what hands we are hoping to get value from. I cannot see how Villain ever has a J in this spot. He should not be floating flop with two broadway cards given the multi-way situation. are we specifically targeting 7x? 88? 99?


    if the options are all-in or check/evaluate, we should never bet all-in.


    i could get behind a bet but it would have to be pretty small. Basically 120 or so.


    that said, I think the standard is to check which is what I’d recommend.

    Thanked by 1Steveo76
  • ChaosInEquilibriumChaosInEquilibrium Posts: 124Subscriber

    Can you give more info on your preflop read? What is suspect? Do you just mean that he has sizing tells? Or have you seen showdown of weak hands that he PFRed?

  • GarlandGarland Posts: 565Subscriber
    Can you give more info on your preflop read? What is suspect? Do you just mean that he has sizing tells? Or have you seen showdown of weak hands that he PFRed?

    Sure. The raise pre-flop was definitely not standard (4x + adjust for limpers) as I thought he would raise more with a stronger hand. There are times it limps 2 or 3 ways to him in BB and he'd raise is option to $15 "for fun" with something like 86s for example.
  • GarlandGarland Posts: 565Subscriber
    We lose to at least 10 or so combos, as far as I can tell. They are A5s, Ah7h, 7h8h, 8h9h, 9hTh, maybe 55.

    its not clear what hands we are hoping to get value from. I cannot see how Villain ever has a J in this spot. He should not be floating flop with two broadway cards given the multi-way situation. are we specifically targeting 7x? 88? 99?

    if the options are all-in or check/evaluate, we should never bet all-in.

    i could get behind a bet but it would have to be pretty small. Basically 120 or so.

    that said, I think the standard is to check which is what I’d recommend.

    I think we can rule out 55. Another detail is I thought there was a decent chance villain had a decent made hand when he calls the turn bet. As an FYI, this hand is scheduled to be a call-in with Bart today.
  • ChaosInEquilibriumChaosInEquilibrium Posts: 124Subscriber
    edited October 26

    Excellent. Looking forward to the call-in show.

    If he can have small 1-gap connectors in his "raise for fun" range, then we lose to additional 5x, such as 65s (1 combos), 75s (3 combos), 54s (3 combos). We also beat additional combos of two pair, however, though with middle set we block many of the two pair combos, such as 76s (1 or 0 combos, depending on suits of your 66) and 64s (1 or 0 combos). So all in all, the revelation that he can have small suited connectors here is probably bad for us and would push me more in the direction of a check/evaluate.

  • GarlandGarland Posts: 565Subscriber
    edited October 27
    This hand made the call-in show as the 2nd hand around the 15 minute mark. https://crushlivepoker.com/podcasts/evaluating-backdoor-flushes

    I agree with what the posters and Bart had to say. This is a bet around $150 and fold to raise or check. The result was villain tanked for 90 seconds and showed 76o, and I was good.

    Another takeaway is to be able to take the decision making process and divorce it from the result. I.e. it would be easy for a lot of people to fall into the trap of thinking "I got the best possible outcome, so I made the correct decision" and simply forget about it rather than reconsider.
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