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1/3 MGM National Harbor - Tough Spot

Hero has K10 of spades in MP (850 eff)

Hero opens to 15
Villain (900 eff) raises to 35 on BTN
Folds to hero who calls ($74)

-Villain was in his mid twenties with headphones on. I had not seen him show down any hands.
-Hero is early twenties. Fun table and I had been drinking but straightforward tight aggressive.

Flop: AsQd8d
Hero checks, villain bets $50 and hero calls ($174)

-I don’t love this call but we both had decent stacks and backdoor flush draw.

Turn: Jd
Hero checks, villain bets $175 and hero calls ($475)

-Would he take this sizing with a flush?

River: 9h

Hero checks, villain goes all in and hero tank folds.

My thoughts:

How many Ad combos is he 3-betting?

I asked him about it later and he said he had a set, which I just don't believe. Unless he turned AA with a diamond into a bluff?

His bet was pretty polarizing and I feel like I have a lot of flush combos there too?

For me it just came down to the fact that many people don't make this play without the nuts at 1/3.

Overall tough spot but would love to hear your thoughts!

Comments

  • ChaosInEquilibriumChaosInEquilibrium Posts: 121Subscriber
    edited September 30

    Man, this is really a tough spot.

    I too am doubtful about him making this play with a set. I wonder whether he can have AA and QQ in his range when he min-raises preflop? Also there aren’t many players who are courageous enough to go for thin value here with AdAx. Taking this river sizing with AA (no diamond) and QQ is suicidal, so we’re really just beating two set combos here (if that).

    I’d end up making this call because I know KT is too far up in my range to fold. But it’s not a snap call by any means IMO.

    Definitely an interesting hand.


    P.S. I would not share any information with the table that you folded here with a straight. An observant player will deduce that you’re overfolding, and take it as a license to bluff you in the future.

  • dpbuckdpbuck Posts: 2,067Subscriber
    I probably fold flop since villain bet 2/3rds pot. I think you can get away with calling (or raising) to a smaller sizing, but your implied odds actually go down the bigger he bets. Add in the dirtiness of your gutshot, and this should just be a dump.

    On turn and river, villain doesn't have many flushes in his range. With the Q/J/8 out there, it really leaves only a couple flush combos. Kinda feel like we need to pinch our nose and call down...
    Thanked by 1LatvianMissile
  • ChaosInEquilibriumChaosInEquilibrium Posts: 121Subscriber
    edited September 30

    On second thought we also beat 3 combos of T9s that might take this line (relevant Q: is Villain 3-betting non-premiums?). We only lose to AKdd, ATdd, A5dd, A4dd, and T9dd.

    If we beat any value hands in Villains range, we have to call. So I think the relevant Qs are:

    1. is he 3-betting non-premiums, and if so, could he go for thinnish value with a straight with this line?
    2. is he capable of bluffing at all?

    if the answer to either question is yes/maybe, we have to call. If the answers are both no, we can make an exploitable fold.

  • ChaosInEquilibriumChaosInEquilibrium Posts: 121Subscriber
    edited September 30

    I will say one other thing: the preflop sizing in this hand is really very strange. This small sizing can mean different things for different players. If I noticed him take this sizing, I would pay close attention to all showdowns he’s involved in to try to determine the pattern of his bet-sizing. By default I would tend to assign him a weaker range consisting of mid-pairs, suited connectors and suited aces (not AKs/AQs). I think it’s fair to eliminate QQ from his range. Some players will also take this sizing with AA so as to not drive away action.

  • NathanGuentzelNathanGuentzel Posts: 153Member
    I used the CLP chart for 3 bet in late position versus a MP opener. It is basically a starting range of the seat in front of MP1, or UTG2. I dropped out some of the 50/50 hands where we could 3 bet or call either way half the time. I tried to do so an even amount and keep a linear 3 bet strategy. We have mostly strong hands and a few board coverage hands in the mix. This is not exactly what the opponent is doing, but it should provide a picture into what types of flush hands he can have here.

    Board: Qd8dAsJd
    Equity Win Tie
    MP1 79.15% 78.15% 1.01% { KsTs }
    BU 20.85% 19.84% 1.01% { 99+, AJs+, A5s-A4s, JTs, T9s, AQo+ }

    This is obviously subject to what the person puts into his range of 3 betting versus flatting.
    However, for flushes, with this range we have 4. 1 straight flush and 3 with AK, A5, A4. As DpBuck said, there are not many flushes in his range, if he is using a similar strategy. That is the question I guess. How many suited aces is he 3 betting with? How many suited connectors is he 3 betting with?


    The point that CIE made is pretty much the crux...the hands that we have which arrive at the river better than this specific holding are basically the few that we are worried about being beaten by. Both players can hold them.


    Board: Qd8dAsJd9h
    Equity Win Tie
    MP1 91.67% 91.67% 0.00% { KsTs }
    BU 8.33% 8.33% 0.00% { 99+, AJs+, A5s-A4s, JTs, T9s, AQo+ }


    We could widen the button's range a bit and add in a few flushes with suited connectors below T9s, but it is not changing the W/L % dramatically.


    If he is capable of bluffing, or overvaluing a hand here, I think you have to call as well.
    (bluffs would be Ad X, TdTx, 9T.)









    Thanked by 1ChaosInEquilibrium
  • cdevinecdevine Posts: 8Member
    dpbuck wrote: »
    I probably fold flop since villain bet 2/3rds pot. I think you can get away with calling (or raising) to a smaller sizing, but your implied odds actually go down the bigger he bets. Add in the dirtiness of your gutshot, and this should just be a dump.

    On turn and river, villain doesn't have many flushes in his range. With the Q/J/8 out there, it really leaves only a couple flush combos. Kinda feel like we need to pinch our nose and call down...

    Yea, looking back at it I fold the flop 95% of the time but was feeling the booze a little bit I guess :)
  • cdevinecdevine Posts: 8Member
    On second thought we also beat 3 combos of T9s that might take this line (relevant Q: is Villain 3-betting non-premiums?). We only lose to AKdd, ATdd, A5dd, A4dd, and T9dd.
    If we beat any value hands in Villains range, we have to call. So I think the relevant Qs are:
    is he 3-betting non-premiums, and if so, could he go for thinnish value with a straight with this line?
    is he capable of bluffing at all?
    if the answer to either question is yes/maybe, we have to call. If the answers are both no, we can make an exploitable fold.

    T9s is definitely a possibility but is he really betting pot on turn and then shoving river with the non nut straight... at 1/3 I don't think anyone is going this thin. The reality is I did not know the villain at all so just made a tough fold knowing most players aren't bluffing at 1/3.
  • cdevinecdevine Posts: 8Member
    I will say one other thing: the preflop sizing in this hand is really very strange. This small sizing can mean different things for different players. If I noticed him take this sizing, I would pay close attention to all showdowns he’s involved in to try to determine the pattern of his bet-sizing. By default I would tend to assign him a weaker range consisting of mid-pairs, suited connectors and suited aces (not AKs/AQs). I think it’s fair to eliminate QQ from his range. Some players will also take this sizing with AA so as to not drive away action.

    My exact thoughts. Thanks for the feedback! On 2+2 a lot of people said to fold to the 3-bet, which seems foolish because of the price I am getting and the small sizing he took.
  • cdevinecdevine Posts: 8Member
    I used the CLP chart for 3 bet in late position versus a MP opener. It is basically a starting range of the seat in front of MP1, or UTG2. I dropped out some of the 50/50 hands where we could 3 bet or call either way half the time. I tried to do so an even amount and keep a linear 3 bet strategy. We have mostly strong hands and a few board coverage hands in the mix. This is not exactly what the opponent is doing, but it should provide a picture into what types of flush hands he can have here.

    Board: Qd8dAsJd
    Equity Win Tie
    MP1 79.15% 78.15% 1.01% { KsTs }
    BU 20.85% 19.84% 1.01% { 99+, AJs+, A5s-A4s, JTs, T9s, AQo+ }

    This is obviously subject to what the person puts into his range of 3 betting versus flatting.
    However, for flushes, with this range we have 4. 1 straight flush and 3 with AK, A5, A4. As DpBuck said, there are not many flushes in his range, if he is using a similar strategy. That is the question I guess. How many suited aces is he 3 betting with? How many suited connectors is he 3 betting with?


    The point that CIE made is pretty much the crux...the hands that we have which arrive at the river better than this specific holding are basically the few that we are worried about being beaten by. Both players can hold them.


    Board: Qd8dAsJd9h
    Equity Win Tie
    MP1 91.67% 91.67% 0.00% { KsTs }
    BU 8.33% 8.33% 0.00% { 99+, AJs+, A5s-A4s, JTs, T9s, AQo+ }


    We could widen the button's range a bit and add in a few flushes with suited connectors below T9s, but it is not changing the W/L % dramatically.


    If he is capable of bluffing, or overvaluing a hand here, I think you have to call as well.
    (bluffs would be Ad X, TdTx, 9T.)









    Thanks so much for the feedback! After seeing this I kind of wish I had called, but I really don't think players at these stakes are bluffing here. The only bluff I really put him on was AxAd that turned a set into a bluff to get me off of a straight/small flush. I don't see 9T bluffing with the showdown that he has.
  • ChaosInEquilibriumChaosInEquilibrium Posts: 121Subscriber
    edited October 2

    I do not think AdAx is a natural bluff here. I think KdKx makes a lot more sense. Or just random air. The problem is it’s hard for him to have air on this board.


    AdAx will want to check the river and take a showdown.


    He could also have TdTx and be going for a sort of merged “value bluff”.


    When he’s repping such a narrow range of value that beats us (5 combos max), his random spaz plays begin to comprise a more significant part of his range. That’s why I’d find it hard to fold. He just needs to spazz out with KdKx a few times and we’re justified to call.


    But then again, where I play the 1/3 plays more like a 5/5 or 5/10, and players actually find bluffs. If you have a read on the guy that he’s cautious and doesn’t bluff enough then don’t call river — actually, I guess in that case you should fold flop.

  • FuzzypupFuzzypup Posts: 2,601Subscriber
    edited October 5
    Fold flop for that sized bet. He has enough Ax combos in is range that with that bet size it is very likely -EV to call even with the BDNFD.

    Bet or XR the turn depending on his aggression.

    Call the river

    Now for the work..... 3m later.....

    If we assume a 3b range of 7.4% because headphone kid is that good - 88+,AQs+,KQs,QJs,JTs,T9s,98s,87s,AQo+ which includes 25% of a bluffing range with high equity speculative hands.

    You have ~24% equity in this hand if you are allowed 2 cards. You are getting 2.5:1 to call.
    Of his range..... 43% has you crushed
    +9% has you beat pretty badly.
    +6% has a lot of equity on you with a FD.
    I am not even counting ties or card removal.
    That's 62% of his range smashes that board really hard.

    If my math is right this is a flop XF.

    As for the turn. Since this is a 3b pot only ~5% of his range has the FD with the current action. You need to bet out OTT His range didn't change from the flop when you act 1st and he hasn't. Very likely he will bet his strong hands Xx hands, check his AdX hands and X his XdXx hands. If he is that aggressive and will bet at a very high frequency anyways regardless of his hand then XR.

    River...

    As played.... Dude you have to call.

    When he pots the turn he really polarized his range.
    His range is basically reduced to this.... AA,QQ-JJ,88,AQo,AQs,QJs,T9s and maybe one bluff hand.
    Of this range only ~1 in 6 has the FD. Now would he also pot the turn with the NFD after you checked which indicates you very likely don't have the FD or even a set? Notice in my range all the SCs don't have FDs OTT because of the cards on the board that are part of his range.

    So OTT most of his range is sets and 2 pairs and this doesn't change with the river card.

    So reverse the hand to his perspective. How does your hand look like? XC, XC, X = Not a flush.

    FInal clue. Why would he 3b you so small? He isn't looking for you to fold. He is looking for you to call preflop. I can't tell you how many times I have seen players live and online 3b small with AA to get action. So now the weight of other hands goes down due to the 3! sizing.

    Now this is all assuming he is a good player. Very likely he doesn't 3b bluff enough and his range is even narrower with fewer FDs and more sets thinking you have QQ or JJ.

    I make my decisions in posts before I do the work and before I read replies to see if my experience and intuition are still sharp.

    And thus why I always keep ramming down the new players throats, do the work, do the work, do the work just like this. Believe me it helps your game tremendously because it cements the math into intuition.

    Final verdict.... Call the river and yell "show me the money" before he flips over his set of AA.


  • FuzzypupFuzzypup Posts: 2,601Subscriber
    Folding preflop is a mistake for that price that deep. It comes down to a math equation in ToP.

    In this case folding is worse -EV than calling. Overall you will lose money on this hand but folding loses more money than calling and playing. You are getting 45:1 implied.

    A hand like this has abut a 5% chance to win vs AA/KK combo just on the flop. And I am pretty sure you will get paid at least $400 in that scenario.
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