Hi there, first timer here. Please, bare with me, a couple of questions.
1/3, 500 effective.
Everyone folds, i'm at the Btn with A♥ J♥, I open 10$, SB and BB called. 30$ in the pot.
Flop comes 10♥ , 4♥ , 2x. Everyone checks, I have the flush draw, I bet 20$ in 30$. SB folds, BB raises to 75$.
This villain has been pretty snug, but is a young guy. So it can be a lesser flush draw, an overpair, a 10 or a set. I constructed these ranges:
1-(KK-TT, 44, 22, ATs, A5s-A3s, KTs, KhJh+, QTs, JTs, T9s, 53s, 42s, ATo, KTo, QTo, JTo, T9o, 53o, 42o) not counting air. The cruncher gives me almost 47/53 favoring me- Although...
2- ...live I thought I was dealing with a set or a face+10x, in which case (TT, 44, 22, ATs, KTs, QTs, JTs, ATo, KTo, QTo, JTo) the percentages are inverted in his favor, 53/47.
3-And lastly, the worst case, sets, I'm down to roughly 25/75 in his favor.
So calling 40$ in 125 is still ok pot odds. The pot now is 165$
The turn comes a 5x, and now there is a gutshot to a wheel. So the scenarios are now like this:
1- 65/35 in his favor (roughly 2 to 1)
2- 65/35 in his favor (roughly 2 to 1)
3- 78/22 in his favor (roughly 4 to 1)
the villain bets 110$. Pot is 275$, roughly 2.5 to 1. Villain has around 300$ behind.
So, the questions:
1- if i'm convinced that i'm dealing with sets, is it wrong to call here? Because I'm not sure if I'm going to get paid if a heart or a 3 comes...
2- Are the ranges constructed correctly?