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A hand and a question about pot odds in different scenarios

FufuPokaFufuPoka Posts: 2Member
edited September 26 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
Hi there, first timer here. Please, bare with me, a couple of questions.

1/3, 500 effective.

Everyone folds, i'm at the Btn with A J, I open 10$, SB and BB called. 30$ in the pot.

Flop comes 10 , 4 , 2x. Everyone checks, I have the flush draw, I bet 20$ in 30$. SB folds, BB raises to 75$.

This villain has been pretty snug, but is a young guy. So it can be a lesser flush draw, an overpair, a 10 or a set. I constructed these ranges:

1-(KK-TT, 44, 22, ATs, A5s-A3s, KTs, KhJh+, QTs, JTs, T9s, 53s, 42s, ATo, KTo, QTo, JTo, T9o, 53o, 42o) not counting air. The cruncher gives me almost 47/53 favoring me- Although...

2- ...live I thought I was dealing with a set or a face+10x, in which case (TT, 44, 22, ATs, KTs, QTs, JTs, ATo, KTo, QTo, JTo) the percentages are inverted in his favor, 53/47.

3-And lastly, the worst case, sets, I'm down to roughly 25/75 in his favor.

So calling 40$ in 125 is still ok pot odds. The pot now is 165$

The turn comes a 5x, and now there is a gutshot to a wheel. So the scenarios are now like this:

1- 65/35 in his favor (roughly 2 to 1)
2- 65/35 in his favor (roughly 2 to 1)
3- 78/22 in his favor (roughly 4 to 1)

the villain bets 110$. Pot is 275$, roughly 2.5 to 1. Villain has around 300$ behind.

So, the questions:

1- if i'm convinced that i'm dealing with sets, is it wrong to call here? Because I'm not sure if I'm going to get paid if a heart or a 3 comes...

2- Are the ranges constructed correctly?

Thanks.

Comments

  • NathanGuentzelNathanGuentzel Posts: 152Member
    edited September 26
    Hello Fufu and congrats on your 1st post!

    I am coming up with a little different numbers for your pot sizes, not counting the rake, but we are off a bit more than the rake should be.

    Here are the numbers I have:
    Flop pot Prior to betting : 30

    you bet 20, are check raised to 75 and call.
    Flop pot after betting: 180=30+20+75+55.
    Effective stack is 500-10-20-55=415

    After turn bet: 415-110=305 Pot is 400= 30+75+20+55+110+110.

    Pot odds to call the turn are 110 to call with 290 in the pot.

    If we call it, equities are calculated as such: We have to call 110 to win a pot of 290+110=400.

    110/400=27.5%. We need to win that often to break even.

    On the turn you have 22.73% equity. You will make your hand a little better than 1 time in 5.
    That is saying that you are appoximately 4-1 against making it.

    Based on strictly the opponent's bet, you are short on the call. He would have to bet 75 or less.

    This is straight pot odds. However, if you hit your hand and he will call a bet from you, you actually don't need to make very much more from him to make the call profitable.
    That is the Implied odds. You could win all of the remaining stacks...which are 305. If you suspect that he will call a bet a percentage of the time, you could build a river profile and figure what to bet based on that.

    You are getting a fair price to continue and I think most would given the price as played, without much thought.

    As for the ranges: I don't think they are completely correct. While it is certain that most players would 3 bet an overpair to this board preflop and also some of the big broadway cards and maybe even some medium pairs, it is not always going to be the case.

    That is the difficult thing to figure...what exactly the ranges would be. If we go with reasonable assumptions, and say that the villain would 3 bet AJs+ and TT+ and AJo+, we are heavy on his hands. If not, we are light. Depends on what you think about the player.

    Realistically in this exact spot, it matters very little. You need to make like 20 more dollars if you hit on the river to break even on the call. The villain should call that every time.


    I hope this addressed what you asked.


    If you subscribe to the CLP membership, this subject (pot odds) is addressed in the Fast track curriculum basic and advanced math.






    Thanked by 1FufuPoka
  • FufuPokaFufuPoka Posts: 2Member

    Thanks Nathan for your reply. 

    The flop you are right, such a retarded mistake. It seems I didn’t go to school :) that extra 15$ adds up.

    So the after the betting in the flop is 180. But I think I have this wrong, or there is a extra addition from your part: in the turn, I have to call 110 to win 290, not 400. So is 3 to 1, and calling will complete 400. Unless you think that the third player called, which he didn’t, he folded. 

    Let me know if I’m wrong here. Thanks again!

  • NathanGuentzelNathanGuentzel Posts: 152Member

    I am converting your pot odds of 290:110 into equity. You do this by adding up the final pot amount, which is the pot, the opponent's bet and your call and place your call amount over that number.

    180+110+110=400

    110/400= 27.5%. This is the amount of time you need to win to break even, winning more often will profit.

    Your exact hand has 22.73% equity, so you are about 5% short. You either need a smaller bet or make 5% off the pot on the river.

    Your pot odds calc is correct, but that doesn't tell us what we need to make the call, specifically. That is derived from the equity of your hand versus the equity offered by the bet you face.

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