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Is this a good river to continue my bluff?

Shorn7Shorn7 Posts: 81Subscriber
Game is $2/$5 $1000 max (6 max) at Boston Billiards in Nashua NH. Villain is YWG, good reg, aggressive and capable of making moves. He also tends to defend with any two suited cards, especially in position. Effective stack is Hero with $1200 (V covers).

One limp to V OTB who raises to $20 OTB. Hero looks down at K T in SB. Given V’s reluctance to fold after raising, I decide to just call here instead of 3! Might not be correct but I didn’t want to bloat the pot against an aggressive/good V OOP. BB calls as well and limper folds so we go to the flop 3 ways.

Flop ($60 after max rake)
A 7 4s

I check and both BB and V check. I find this a bit odd as it is a pretty good texture to c-bet as of raiser so I immediately discount Ax or hearts in V’s range.

Turn($60)
A 7 4s 6

I check, BB checks and V now leads for $25. Given my read OTF, I decide this is most likely a “everyone checked twice so I can take this pot now” kind of sizing and interpret it as weak. I decide to CR to $75 and think I will take it down a lot here but if V calls I will evaluate river and decide based on what comes if I will fire a second barrel. BB folds and V tanks. Checks his cards and after maybe 15 seconds he calls. I do not smell strength from this action.

River ($210)

A 7 4s 6 4

So I ask is the 4h a good bluff continuer? If yes, what size do you take? If no, why would you give up here?

Thanks,

Shorn

Comments

  • SuperflySuperfly Posts: 625Subscriber

    Call from SB is marginal. BTNs range is wide, but I’d be more prone to do this vs a weak player rather a good aggressive player. You are easily dominated and will be forced to play defense OOP.

    I agree with you as a population read that most PFRs will cbet an A multi-way with a FD on the board. But good tricky players def have delayed cbets in their arsenal, so I wouldn’t put his chance of having an A at zero.

    The other thing about bluffing this turn is that the board strongly favors the BBs range. Yes, he checked twice, but there are plenty of pair+draw type hands that he could check call. Given that you have very little equity, I would shy away from trying to bluff this turn.

    As played, V won’t put you on a FD after you check raise turn. You’re representing sets and maybe 2P (A4s) that filled up on the river. That’s a very narrow range so if you are going to bet you need to bet big - overbet the pot. Whether you pull the trigger depends largely on your image. Does V see you as someone who is capable of c/r bluffing the turn and continuing to bluff the river? If aggressive bluffs on later streets is not your MO, then fire away, you aren’t going to win by checking. But it’s a high variance play.

  • SuperflySuperfly Posts: 625Subscriber

    PS. Forgot to mention, I think you lead out with a naked A on the turn, so don’t really think AX is in your range on the river.

  • Nit_BetNit_Bet Posts: 72Member
    edited August 9
    Superfly wrote: »
    ... easily dominated and will be forced to play defense OOP...
    I'd rather like to see a fold or a 3bet here.
    We don't have no SB flatting range, IN PARTICULAR IN A RAKED CG.
    Superfly wrote: »
    ... good tricky players def have delayed cbets in their arsenal...
    Correct. I personally do that relatively often.
    Superfly wrote: »
    ...the board strongly favors the BBs range....
    Don't see it, please elaborate.
    Superfly wrote: »
    ...you are representing sets and maybe 2P (A4s) that filled up on the river...
    Hero is more likely to represent a bubble or in the best case a draw.
    Any strong made hand (which are out there only a few as opposed to draws) had lead out on the flop instead of going for a x/r, in particular in the presence of draws and an A which fits strongly into V's range. I put V on a big pair, probably the nuts on the flop here.
    Superfly wrote: »
    ...you need to bet big - overbet the pot...
    Correct but this is dangerous, especially versus thinking opponents.
    I'd rather prefer to do it with the nuts but vs. this kind of V's you probably need to start balancing.
    To prepare the river bluff I'd propose a way much bigger bet on the turn to put maximum pressure on (at this time) both opponents and to reduce the SPR. Instead of 75 125 or 135 comes on my mind. If he calls you let the hammer down on the river and he will have a real hard time to call without the nuts or a hand close to it.

    The 75$ x/r appears to me more like the 'good old' and 'stubborn'
    ...you checked twice, I 3bet now. I am going to steal with a standard 3x bet here...

  • SuperflySuperfly Posts: 625Subscriber

    @Nit_Bet in answer to your question, with a limp, a raise and a call, BB is priced in to call with all kinds of low suited connectors. The low connected board hits those hard with both made hands and draws.

    It’s possible that the limp yet to act behind might constrain BB from calling with low suited connectors if limper is in EP. But if in MP/LP, J don’t think BB needs to be too concerned with a reraise and is likely to call quite wide.

  • Nit_BetNit_Bet Posts: 72Member
    @Superfly Ah yes, sure, you are right, the board favors (BB's) calling range of course.
  • Shorn7Shorn7 Posts: 81Subscriber
    Just to close the loop, I did decide to fire the river here for $165. V tanks for a good minute, picks up his cards as if to fold, puts them back down and decides to raise to $385.

    Anyone have an issue with my sizing here? I obviously folded and will reveal what V showed in my next post.
  • SuperflySuperfly Posts: 625Subscriber
    edited August 12

    I think you need to bet pot or more here for this to work enough. The problem is that if you don’t usually bet big with value, then doing it in this case will look fishy. Your bluff bet size has to match your value bet size. So if you generally bet smaller with value in order to get calls, you’re kind of screwed when you want to try a highly polarized bluff like this.

  • Shorn7Shorn7 Posts: 81Subscriber
    Ok thanks. And I agree that sizing needs to be consistent. I think $165-$220 is in my range for value and bluffs here so on the lower end but still pretty consistent. Anyway, after lots of discussion on here and with Nathan on discord, I think my biggest error is not recognizing that I rep very little value with the turn checkraise as most value hands would more likely lead the turn once V checks back this flop. I got lost thinking more about V’s lack of good hands played this way and didn’t consider my own very narrow value range on the turn.

    Anyway as I said, V raised the river to $385. I tanked a bit and briefly considered shoving, but thought better of it and folded. V proudly showed Q 6 for one pair and took it down. I tipped my cap to him.

    Shorn
    Thanked by 1NathanGuentzel
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