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AA OOP with a bad board. What to do?

Shorn7Shorn7 Posts: 81Subscriber
Game is $2/$5 $1000 max (6 max) at Boston Billiards in Nashua NH. Villain is YWG, pretty ABC and seems to overbet pre with premiums and will make large bets on boards to prevent the bad beat. V has $690 and Hero covers.

Button straddle to $10. SB and BB call and Hero raises to $55 with A A UTG. Folds to V in CO who calls, everyone else folds.

Flop ($140)
K T 4

Hero bets $85 and V calls.

Turn ($310)
Q

Hero decides to check and would like thoughts on that play. Bet/fold better?

Villain bets $250 and has $300 behind? Do we call and play 5 St Chicken or do we just fold now on this board?

Thx,

Shorn7
Thanked by 1NathanGuentzel
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Comments

  • MVHMVH Posts: 23Subscriber

    Lets give this guy a range of KTs, AJ with 1 diamond, QhTh, all 3 combos of both TT and 44, 1 combo of QQ, all the KQ, and Jd9d. Against that range you have 17% equity. If you add in JJ with Jd and AK with Ad you get up to 27%. However you need 45% to make the call. So just a check fold. I also looked at what if you had AdAx. Even in that scenario you still only have 40%. Now maybe with the implied odds you could call with the Ad.

  • NathanGuentzelNathanGuentzel Posts: 128Member
    Hi Shorn7,

    Interesting spot for sure. While it may look pretty tough, lets take a peak here at what we are dealing with.
    Pre flop, I actually would not mind making it up to 65-75, really just making it large after the straddle and the two flats, to make sure we don't have a chain reaction call effect happen. However, I can get by with 55 pre flop, it is 5.5 times the straddle, where as 30+10+10=50 and lets throw in 1 or two for being UTG.

    Unlike MVH, I don't really think the CutOff should be flatting with KT suited here or AJ offuit. They are both very poor hands which don't really flop very well. The same could be said for AJ suited. This is why a large open from UTG is so very dangerous. It is generally represented by serious strength, which will dominate those types of weak holdings. I would much rather see those hand ranges moved into a 3-bet or fold scenario, thereby attempting to get the pot heads up with position on the opener.

    With those thoughts in mind, I really, truly don't think you have a two pair board scenario on this flop! That also means that you should not have KK or QQ out against you, based on the profiling you have done on the villain. I would also move the TT into a 3 bet scenario in this specific case, for the same above mentioned reasons.

    I would be very willing to bet this flop large, $105 plus.

    On the turn, while I do think it looks scary, based on my thoughts of ranges which are flat calling you, I think you likely still have by far the best hand. I think a large portion of the time you are against AK or AQ with the A of the flush suit.
    Checking in this situation is a huge mistake. What flushes should the opponent really have here on a 5.5x raise from UTG pre-flop? Even less so if you made it larger by a couple of blinds.

    This is based on your description, BTW...the villain should not be set mining with 700 effective pre and 55 cold to go...so if he is ABC and not a dope, you should have the nuts here quite a bit....only if he flatted with KQ suited, which, there are 3 ways.... would you be in trouble.

    I Would honestly be willing to bet larger on flop and bet turn large as well.
    As played, I would bet here every single time, and I think that I am betting 250 minimum, up to an overshove..forcing AK with the A of diamonds or AQ to call it off on the flush draw.
    I don't think AK or AQ without the flush draw is calling a bet here, so you don't have to be too concerned with losing the action from that hand. I think our main concern is not getting value from the Ace of the suit with the pair.

    If reading through this makes you think, well yeah, but he can have the KT, KQ and AJ, then, raise larger preflop and bet more on the flop!

    If i bet 250 or so on Turn and am called with river bringing a diamond, I am probably checking and folding every time. If no diamond and no K/Q, heavily weight toward K...I am betting off for value. Stacks are small at 70 blinds...Straddle remember. Simply my opinion.
  • Shorn7Shorn7 Posts: 81Subscriber
    Thanks guys. Great stuff as usual and I actually did feel like I made a number of sizing mistakes on this hand and didn’t think thru it clearly. V clearly doesn’t have KK on this flop, but TT and 44 are definitely in his flatting range pre (as are maybe a partial of QQ). I do like your suggestion of larger pre especially OOP with the straddle...not sure that changes V’s behavior but I certainly get mor preflop value that way as his flatting range is likely the same. That also allows me to size up on the flop as well and given V’s smaller stack size (and your reminder that he has a 70 blind stack in this hand), probably makes this more of a “bet turn/call it off” if he shoves kind of spot.

    This type of spot is still a weakness for me where I tend to give V’s too much credit, don’t take my time with it, and end up making a poor fold.

    Thanks for the thoughts.

    Shorn
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  • NathanGuentzelNathanGuentzel Posts: 128Member
    Leaving us hanging???

    This type of spot being a weakness for you, is why we are here, right? I am not neccessarily correct here, however, I am just looking at this situation as how I would play my whole range this way. Also, in this specific spot with this board, what likely types of hands does the CO have. Don't feel bad if you didn't think about some of these things. It just takes a little time to develop that process. Another point to consider, is that okay, so the villain could flat TT and 44 and flop a set on you...big deal...you profit because he is set mining too shallow. To further that point, you outplay him when the flop comes KQ x and he has TT and you wiff and continue. If he is flatting 44 from this spot with this sizing, you are making money for the same reasons.

    Due to the shallowness of the stacks compared the the straddle size, I would be comfortable getting AA in for 5x the pot on the flop against most in this spot. I think what you will find is they will have the flush draw, or TP+FD or the like, much more than TT or 44. Doubling up someone with AA as an overpair on a two flush-two broadway board is not so terrible, when they should not have much for two pair hands.

    So what happened in the actual hand and what were your thoughts as you played street to street??

  • Shorn7Shorn7 Posts: 81Subscriber
    Haha sorry didn’t mean to leave you hanging.

    So I sized $55 preflop (and not bigger) to try and get some action out of my big pair. But I do think that I could get away with bigger here and still get the call.

    On the flop, I sized a little over half pot so that if V had a FD he wasn’t getting immediate 4-1 to draw and so that I could get value form AK or KQ which I don’t think V would fold to 1 bet.

    The turn card froze me and my initial reaction was that it was one of the worst in the deck for me although after your posts I see that really isn’t the case as it lowers the number of flushes V could have even further given there are 3 Broadway diamonds out now. When I freeze like this I tend to check and evaluate which I need to at least stop and think about it more before doing so (as Bart says, stop and go back to preflop to re- evaluate when you get into the fog). Anyway I checked and V bet $250 with $300 behind which I actually viewed as a shove as I don’t think he folds if I shove (he would be getting $1110/$300 or 3.6-1). I simply decided that I didn’t want to pay $550 more to find out if my hand was good so I folded (again, without giving myself enough time to properly come to the best decision).

    V did not show..
  • MVHMVH Posts: 23Subscriber

    Couple questions Nate. This is a pretty wierd configuration pre flop. Button straddle, both blinds limp and utg raises. If you are in villains place in cutoff, how close is this to a 3 bet or fold scenario? The button is left to act and some people will limp with their whole range from the blinds with a button straddle. I'm kind of surprised it went heads up. So if the CO is incentivized to 3 bet here, what kind of calling range would you give him? Also, I agree that he should not have a lot of the hands that I gave him. But hands they should have and hands they do have are often different.

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  • NathanGuentzelNathanGuentzel Posts: 128Member
    Hi MVH,
    I will do my best to answer your questions from my point of view and understanding. Like i prefaced before, I could be wrong, but I just feel like the ideas I have make sense to me. If not to you, that is okay. Maybe you can present an argument that makes more sense to me. As always, thanks for your input and chance for me to debate and learn....here goes
    1) "If you are in villains place in cutoff, how close is this to a 3 bet or fold scenario?"
    Well, looking at what has happend, with both blinds limping in, I would want them out with pretty much every hand I am going to play. I am not set mining at 70 big blinds, when the UTG player is likely going to be my target and bettor on the flop. So, as the CO, I am not thinking that more of the blind money in the pot is beneficial to me. Further more, if I flat the UTG, and the button 3 bets, I am certainly done at that point...which would just about make me sick. While the button is unheard from yet, and can have an uncapped range, yet to act preflop, I would much rather use a 3 bet to try and fold the blinds and button and define my hand with the UTG opening to me. Even if I am dominated, I can win position and at times may take the pot with that position.

    Regarding the play of the blinds. They need to be extra careful due to lack of position. While they have limped, I actually am not sure if that is the correct strategy with a button straddle. That button straddle is designed to really screw the blinds...I really hate those games. In any event, I think that the blinds should really be playing a very tight game, if they are generally playing 100 BB deep. 200 BB+ then they could open up a bit. We don't really know what the blinds stacks were, so, I never considered them really much at all. If one of them 4 bets, I am done. If one calls 3 cold, I look at that as a mistake made by not raising first or 4 betting.

    2) I would not have a calling range from the CO's position I don't think. Myself. anyway. The only real calling hand I think that could be there, that is now beating the hero are 3 KQ suited hands. I don't like those very much against the UTG range, they don't play very well against his Big card range.


    Hope this answered your questions.
  • MVHMVH Posts: 23Subscriber

    Thanks Nathan. Yes I agree. I'm looking at this as majority 3 bet or fold from the villains perspective. Not knowing the villain or the way this game is playing I would look at the COs call as generally weak in itself, which is why I gave him the wider range. Anyway thanks again for the input.

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  • Nit_BetNit_Bet Posts: 72Member
    edited August 7
    Shorn7 wrote: »
    Hero decides to check and would like thoughts on that play. Bet/fold better?
    Villain bets $250 and has $300 behind? Do we call and play 5 St Chicken or do we just fold now on this board?

    While being a terrible board for AA I'm not going to fold here for less than 120bbs total.

  • Nit_BetNit_Bet Posts: 72Member
    edited August 9
    First of all I must admit that I didn't follow the whole discussion, sorry.
    Second I'd like to ask you if it is possible that your opponents call bigger bets not just pre-flop?
    It's a live game and as such we can probably open up to 5x or bigger. You don't want anybody and his sister call your opens - or at least not if you hold this kind of hands. In the local high-stakes game in Switzerland/Zürich Struddle/20/10 the opens are sometimes 5x or more.
    I also don't like the sizing on the flop.
    It's very draw heavy, why not just pot it, even over-bet?
    I don't know what the solver solutions say but just because 'someone' started to do 1/3 or 1/2 pot c-bets it doesn't mean it's a dogma. This is where exploitative play starts and solver solutions can't help much.

    To answer your question:
    It's a substantial bet V is doing, I admit and it seems to be a very close decision to do here.
    I wasn't at the table, you didn't describe V very much and it seems he isn't very afraid of the K or the draw.
    Hmm... you put yourself in this spot.
    I'd made a (relatively small but not too small sized) 2nd barrel to 'see where I'm at'.

    That's my point of view and I've probably never checked OTT so I am maybe less of a help.

  • ChaosInEquilibriumChaosInEquilibrium Posts: 93Subscriber
    edited August 9

    Just to comment about the Cutoff range: This is 6-max 3-blind game, so ranges are going to be considerably wider than for typical live games. CO flatting range should include AJs, as well as pocket pairs 77-JJ. Live ranges will be even wider than optimal ranges. I’d be surprised if V doesn’t have all combos of AJo and KQo.


    I’d normally be hard-pressed to find a board where I’d fold AA at 70BB effective. Prototypical example where I might find a fold would be KQJ monotone. KQT monotone is basically just as bad. Check/fold turn when V uses PSB sizing is fine.

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  • NathanGuentzelNathanGuentzel Posts: 128Member
    CIE,
    While there are 3 blinds, it is the button straddle. This is quite a bit different than 3 blinds in order. Secondly, regardless of the game being 6 handed, the CO should be incentivised to 3 bet and fold out the button and the limped blinds, who are likely weak. Thirdly, you don't set mine for 5.5 blinds with a 70 blind stack. For good measure, how does AJ without the A of diamonds ever sniff a call on the flop? Is he folding out an Ace turn?? What about a J turn? Brick 3rd diamond? He is too short to call a meaningful bet size and fold later.

    If you want to change the stacks around to different depths, that is one thing...and a completely different scenario. However, if you are going to set mine against the hero with 70 BB and continue on two suited flops with a gutter, against the hero with range and nut advantage, I think you are giving up serious equity in the long run.

    While I do agree that those hands could be in there, I don't think that they should be. The other thing is that what the OP agreed with is that he feels he let the villain take over control of the hand by checking. The Villain could have held AK here, with or without the diamond, and felt, not only was it the best hand, but he needed to protect against a diamond coming.

    Thanks for the input.
  • ChaosInEquilibriumChaosInEquilibrium Posts: 93Subscriber
    edited August 9

    Nathan: I was not precise, sorry about that. I meant to say that CO has all combos of AJ and KQ in his preflop range. Of course, the offsuit varieties of those hands are fairly trashy, and I would personally fold them against a tight HJ range. But I doubt most live players have this much preflop discipline. Matter of fact, if I were playing in a live game where half the table is making that fold, I’d ask for a table change.


    I think his most likely hand is KQ, his second most likely hand is AJo (with ace of diamonds), and his third most likely hand is AKo (with ace of diamonds). If he has combos of AKo w/o A on the turn, his turn bet would be a pretty awful overplay. But still, given our blockers, that will be a small part of his range, the vast majority of which crushes us. Not ready to stack off here on the turn with 2 SPR — I really can’t assign a CO range where we have 40%. So I’d still fold.


    Given how poorly we’re doing against the value part of his range, I don’t think we can justify a bet on the turn. What are we hoping to get value from? A Q× ? It just seems we’ll often get shoved on and be in terrible shape.

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  • Nit_BetNit_Bet Posts: 72Member
    edited August 10
    @ChaosInEquilibrium I believe you see monsters under the bed here. Well yes of course, all you said is valid but what about the non big-card hands he has in his range and decided to call PRE? What with the 'midlish' pairs he decided not to raise PRE but called them instead? What about his bluffing and semi-bluffing range? I think the analysis you did is correct but incomplete and you go half cut here. I wont do the efforts either to count all combos nor putting the whole thing into my solver. Just saying.

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  • NathanGuentzelNathanGuentzel Posts: 128Member
    @ChaosInEquilibrium

    Thanks for the discussion. Couple of points I see that I want to discuss. First, to be accurate, in your quote, " I meant to say that CO has all combos of AJ and KQ in his preflop range. Of course, the offsuit varieties of those hands are fairly trashy, and I would personally fold them against a tight HJ range."

    The hero is not in the HJ, He is UTG, acting immediately after the two blinds have limped in from the button straddle.

    @Nit_Bet has a simple point, which is exactly what I am trying to discuss. There are other hands here, besides the nut straight or the flushes, which beat us that the villain can have. 6 AK, (two hold the A) 6 AQ, (two hold A), 9 KQ, 8 AJ, 6 (99), ...out of those it is basically 50/50 if you give the villain the full compliment of AJ and KQ. I am not sure that everyone calls a pure gutter on the flop with the stacks with AJ. However, they are just as likely to call the flop with AQ as well then, being it is the same gutter.

    I expect on the turn if the hero bets, any 3rd pair type hands will fold out, as I do think AQ without the diamond probably will too. However, just like I would not play the AJ for a call, I expect some to stick around with AQ.

    The AK, with a diamond is really in a pickle, as well as the AQ with the diamond. We also can't let the 99 hand continue for free either.

    What about a KJ suited, ect.??

    Also, keep in mind that we are not broke against KQ. While that hand is Top two pair, we hold the range and nut advantages and can easily be crushing that hand. Also, they never have a flush. We can win with any 4, T or Ace.


    The big point is that with a 2 spr, and the hand as played, checking gives the worse hands a chance and earns no value, while betting, sometimes loses, it also gains significantly from hands that have outs to win or chop and really have a tough decision on whether to continue or not. When we saw the flop with a 5 spr, we should have been planning to get money into the pot, and it is no different here on the turn.

    Thanks for the conversation.
  • NathanGuentzelNathanGuentzel Posts: 128Member
    edited August 10
    Not sure if I missed any here, and am sure that not all of these would continue, but they seem reasonable.

    http://www.pokerstrategy.com
    Board: KdTd4hQd
    Equity Win Tie
    UTG 52.54% 51.14% 1.40% { AhAc }
    CO 47.46% 46.06% 1.40% { 9d9h, 9d9s, 9d9c, AsKs, AsQs, KhQh, KsQs, KcQc, AdJd, AsJs, KhJh, KsJs, KcJc, QhJh, QsJs, QcJc, QhTh, QsTs, QcTc, Ad9d, Ad5d, Ad4d, AdKh, AdKs, AdKc, AsKh, AsKc, AdQh, AdQs, AdQc, AsQh, AsQc, AdJh, AdJs, AdJc, AsJd, AsJh, AsJc, AdTh, AdTs, AdTc, KhQs, KhQc, KsQh, KsQc, KcQh, KcQs, KhJd, KhJs, KhJc, KsJd, KsJh, KsJc, KcJd, KcJh, KcJs }



    Much tighter range of continuing for the villain is
    http://www.pokerstrategy.com
    Board: KdTd4hQd
    Equity Win Tie
    MP2 32.77% 30.87% 1.89% { AhAc }
    CO 67.23% 65.34% 1.89% { AsKs, KhQh, KsQs, KcQc, AdJd, AsJs, AdKh, AdKs, AdKc, AdQh, AdQs, AdQc, AdJh, AdJs, AdJc, AsJd, AsJh, AsJc, KhQs, KhQc, KsQh, KsQc, KcQh, KcQs }


    Here we are a 2-1 dog. 24 hands and we are beating 7.

    I would say we are somewhere in between and there is value to be made.
  • Bart HansonBart Hanson Posts: 6,171Administrator, LeadPro
    Im having a lot of trouble finding hands that we are beating here given this action. Yes you have some equity vs two pair type hands, but I think we are going to see a fair amount of flushes here which we are drawing dead to. Its pretty close given the bet size and pot odds but I dont see guys turning QJ or bombing KJ enough in this spot to make me want to call.

    If you were deeper and decided to call on the turn and got an unimproved river (total blank) I would have a very hard time calling another bet. The fact that he bets again is change enough. These stacks are awkward however and most likely should be played as a check shove on the turn IF you want to continue, which in essence means that your opponent is putting you all-in and you would need something around the low to mid 40%s in equity in order to call. I dont think we have that. Bart
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  • NathanGuentzelNathanGuentzel Posts: 128Member
    @Bart Hanson, Thanks for the time to review it, much appreciated. So on the other end of the spectrum then, if you feel the AA has run out of value, would an approach of small flop and small turn bet be better and fold to a raise? That seems like it will keep in hands we would get value from and give us opportunity to fold if raised?
    Thanks for the thoughts.
    Nathan.
  • Nit_BetNit_Bet Posts: 72Member
    edited August 10
    @NathanGuentzel Much more precise approach! Thanks for the work/effort.
    The dilemma I see after H gave up the initiative is, that there is no more fold equity for him after V bet 3/4th of the pot OTT thus 'making us fold'. It's always good to be the aggressor as long we are capable of making reasonable and/or very tight, sometimes sick laydowns.

    @Bart Hanson V is practically putting us all in OTT.
    --- I don't really think the CutOff should be flatting with KT suited here or AJ offuit.... ...same could be said for AJ suited... --- I would much rather see those hand ranges moved into a 3-bet or fold scenario... ... also move the TT into a 3 bet scenario in this specific case...
    I hope you don't make the same mistake like I do to hang in this kind of games too often... :-)
    ...means that you should not have KK or QQ out against you...
    Could be but unlikely. Depends on how 'tricky' (aka dumb) V is.


    Nice discussion.
    Cheers

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