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TPTK on connected flop

ChaosInEquilibriumChaosInEquilibrium Posts: 43Subscriber
edited June 24 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
Villain is passive, loose preflop, and cautious postflop. He does a lot of limping pre. In a prior hand Villain overlimped in MP with AJo and called my BTN raise. His open raising range is pretty tight, probably close to AQ+,AJs+, KQs, TT+.

The blinds are 1/2. Effective Stacks are $450. Game is pretty loose -- I've had a 3bet of $60 get called in 3 spots. Raises to $15 will typically get called in 4-5 spots.

Villain opens MP to $15 (standard), Loose Passive (70% VPIP) on BTN calls, Hero raises to $80 in SB with A K , Villain calls, BTN folds.

Already I'm nervous with Villain calling here. I'm feeling that perhaps a 3bet is too optimistic, though, I do understand 3bet is the standard play here.

Flop: K Q J
Pot: $180

Hero checks, Villain bets $130.

With stack sizes as they are, I'm probably committed if I make this call. Is it too tight to fold to a single bet on the flop?
Thanked by 1NathanGuentzel

Comments

  • urDONEson79urDONEson79 Posts: 50Subscriber
    I like the 3b squeeze as it allows you to take the betting initiative away and let’s you win the pot when you both miss. With this flop, I would probably check fold. If his opening/3b calling range is this tight, he has a lot of sets here and don’t think he’ll have any semi bluff type of combos. The absolute worst hand he’ll have would be AcKx. This 3b size was $65 more than his open so he has to have top of his range here. Curious to see what others have to say.
  • Baggio95Baggio95 Posts: 19Subscriber
    I think just calling preflop is also an option againts such a tight open range (you have 54% equity againts it). I also don't mind to keep in the fish with his dominated hands. What's the plan if Villain 4bets (KK+ and you should fold?)? On a KQJss board I check/folded AA in a similar situation. IMO it's an easy check/fold too, he probably checks back AQ,AJs,TT , so AK is crushed here. If his range is a little bit wider he has ATs,KJs,QJs too.
    Thanked by 1NathanGuentzel
  • ChaosInEquilibriumChaosInEquilibrium Posts: 43Subscriber
    edited June 24
    I planned to fold if Villain 4bets (he only ever has KK or AA if that happens).

    Given that Villain only opens premiums, I don't expect Villain to ever fold to my 3bet.

    If Villain flats my 3bet, then he has a range of hands primarily consisting of AK and AQ, and I can take the pot away on a lot of boards where we both miss with a c-bet.

    On this flop, I guess that Villain's only semi-bluff is A Qx. Given he's so value heavy, I guess it's an easy fold?
  • ChaosInEquilibriumChaosInEquilibrium Posts: 43Subscriber
    Preflop is sort of interesting.

    Arguments for flatting pre: Player on the BTN is a huge whale. We're very deep with him ($1.2k effective).

    Arguments against flatting pre: We lack position, which is going to make it hard to extract value with a passive line -- if we flat pre, and then put in a raise on the flop, it will look very strong against 2 players. BTN Whale is going to flop weakly so often, given that he's playing 70%, that we're unlikely to get much value from him if we flat.
  • LatvianMissileLatvianMissile Posts: 298Subscriber
    edited June 24
    3! pre is good. there's dead money in the pot. Although, I'd size it to 60-65ish.

    I think you can call and evaluate turn. At 1/2 this dude could have KT no club and be betting or a hand like 99 and trying to take it down since you checked. If the turn is a club and he jams we can give up, but alot of the time the turn will be a blank and it'll go check-check. You're getting 3:1 and he's probably betting most of his range here.

    Folding is not a terrible play here if you are certain his opening range is TT+ or if V doesn't have any bluffs or if V always double barrels. But, I lean call since you under repped your hand on the flop.
  • FuzzypupFuzzypup Posts: 2,581Subscriber
    In these kind of games where your raises don't get respected I actually don't like 3 betting in this spot when you leverage your whole stack. You raised 20% of your stack almost. You will be faced with touch decisions post flop and literally make it easy on your opponents to play vs you.

    But this really depends on both players. If both will call then you have $240 in the middle with $370 left. Very likely you aren't making both fold and after you bet you basically done. You also wont get paid except in rare situations.

    In these situations you are basically raising $450 when you hit and have little chance to bluff. And if you hit you will be coolered more often than coolering someone else.

    While game theory says one thing when you play vs a table of non-folders that pay off sometimes a more passive approach is required while giving them the lead so you can play perfect. In my 1/2 game I play very different than my 2/5. If I played my 1/2 game @ 2/5 I'd be eaten alive.

    But if you are fairly certain you are getting 1 caller here then 3b.

    As played. You just might give him this one. Highly unlike he is bluffing and without mathing this I think he has you beat or with a lot of equity.
  • SuperflySuperfly Posts: 610Subscriber

    Even if MP calls your 3bet pre with his entire opening range, you’re still a slight equity dog on the flop. If you assume a tighter preflop calling range, then that reduces your equity more. If you are right that he plays cautious post-flop, that reduces your equity even further. With no club, guess I’d fold.

    Not really sure about preflop. I think you want to raise with such a strong premium hand, but what about keeping it smaller given the large open and low SPR. Maybe around $50?? Gets more money into the pot while keeping Vs ranges wider. Also makes it less painful to fold if MP shoves and you are absolutely sure this means QQ+ or AK.

  • NathanGuentzelNathanGuentzel Posts: 30Member
    CIE, This is quite the hand. My concern I guess to start with is the sizing. You can't do much about the opener's sizing, but since he opens to $15, gets called and it is on you, lets take a peak at the variables there first, before we move to strategy considerations, alright? 7.5 blinds open, 7.5 called, and now straight to 40 blinds? Pot sized would be approximately 30 blinds, and i assume you are adding on some extra for being in the SB and OOP? 5 more would be okay, but fine...I can get behind 10 more blinds total. I don't mind calling with a real strong hand here either. I do think with the flat caller, you are incentivised to 3 bet.

    However, since you are now nervous....let's take a peak at how we are doing against the likely range you gave him:
    Baggio's post sums up most of his range. If he defended his open with a connected hand you could be against a pair + draw...QQ, JJ, TT, Aces Up, ect.

    I don't think he bets any hand here that you have stone crushed. Especially after you check. Why...because with this large raise out of the blind, and specifically the KQJ all same suited flop....when do you ever have better than a pair? Are you ever checking a set on this flop? Are you ever checking the Ace of the suit, because it is always TP+FDSD...Would you raise out of the blind with KQ?

    I could be wrong, but even a weak defend against your large 3 bet with a hand like QJ is a 3:1 favorite, and won't put in more money if an A or T hit, along with another club. I just think your best case scenario is that he is betting with AQ and no Ac!!! Why would he be betting? Would TT fire at it once?? Maybe, but why? To specifically fold out your hand??? Well, if so, I think that dude can have the pot and I am going to pick up, because I think he can see my cards!

    Pretty gross flop. Keep your cool and keep trying to get to the best decision.


    Thanked by 1Baggio95
  • Letmewin1Letmewin1 Posts: 1,246Member
    Even a tight/ish player’s opening range will change based on positions, I disagree that he only opens the range you assigned from mid and I strongly disagree with “standard”, there isn’t a single play that should fall into a standard category as the only strategy, having said that AKs could fall into your 3B range In this spot vs mid open and a BTN flat, you need to have 3B in your range that don’t just include QQ+.for value.
    I don’t think your sizing is bad but I see some merit in smaller to leave room for a 3 street plan and not just 1/2.
    Flop is interesting, I think betting small and x/c both are viable, i personally would lean more toward a 25%-35% PSB.
    AP
    Eh vs that sizing probably fold, your hand can’t really improve nor can it stand further pressure.
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