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He's not supposed to bet! river decision

NotReallyMeNotReallyMe Posts: 7Subscriber
edited May 28 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
$200 Effective Poker Club 1/2

Villain is a reg but that is about all I know, I don't have him marked as a good player so he probably does some strange things, as in this hand.

Full Ring: Hero UTG + 2
A Q Hero Raises to $6 BB calls

Flop $14 2 T 7
BB check - Hero Bet $5 - BB call (Solver has this as 30% bet / 70% -- I am trying not to do the auto Cbet here, but thought I had enough)

Turn $24 Q s (Solver slightly favors a pot size bet, but it's close)
Check Hero Bets $15 - call

River $54 6
BB Bets out! for $40 ... Hero ???
I folded, I'm near the top of my range but can't beat anything. Tried running solver but it never has him betting here based on standard BB ranges

Comments

  • LatvianMissileLatvianMissile Posts: 297Subscriber
    edited May 29
    Yeah, I'd check that flop, but it's not a bad C-bet since we have 2 overs and a bdfd. We'll be able to call half the deck against a turn bet. I like the turn sizing.
    River is tough. This doesn't really look like a blocker bet and people do crazy stuff, but I lean towards a fold since the straight draw and the flush draw came in and I'm not sure what V would bet for value that we beat. I guess J9 and KJ could be bluffs. But I haven't seen many lead out bluffs with this line.

    Side note: I've seen a ton of bizarre lines online and on apps. Way more so than live.
    Thanked by 1NotReallyMe
  • FuzzypupFuzzypup Posts: 2,581Subscriber
    FLOP CB is fine with 2 overs + 2 BD draws + overs as a bluff
    TURN I'd pot it with the over or close to pot it.

    The turn bets forces his hand to be face up for MOST poor players.

    This means OTR he will be less likely to bluff since you looking like you now hand TPTK or some slowplayed set in his eyes.

    It also means that you can gauge his reaction OTT if he Xs the river and effectively bets. If I see this guy snap calling twice I am leaning on giving up. Either has has a hand he isn't folding or has a draw which I beat most of the time.

    If he normal calls the flop then hesitates calls the turn I lean on bluff betting the river.

    These tactics are vs bad players who are unaware of themselves and how their behavior shows the strength of their hand. Very good players will always plan their hand.
    Thanked by 1NotReallyMe
  • hustlinhustlin Posts: 366Subscriber
    Have to pretty much fold here. He’s in the bb and repping a flush. Which he has many more combos of from the blinds. Also sizing is large.so ur less incentivized to call.

    U r top part of your range here, I also don’t see too many bluffs. Theirs some but not too many.
    If bet was 1/2 -2/3 pot I would be a much tougher decision.
    Thanked by 1NotReallyMe
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