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Free Video: CLP Video No. 287: Home Game Bart Reviews His Splashy At $1-$3 Deep Part 2

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Limped pot, 3way, flop checked, now I got second pair

No option for .50/$1 (KingsClubPkr)

Effective Stacks $100
CO limps, SB calls, Hero BB checks Qs7c

no reads

Flop Ad9d5c ($2.91)
check around

Turn Qh ($2.91)
SB leads out for $2.31 Hero Calls, CO calls

River Ac ($9.50)
SB checks, Hero Checks, CO bets $4.75
Hero? What if he bets $6.50? Should Hero have Bet here, I know CLP does not like check calling river, hard habit to break.

Should I be posting spoilers or waiting? newbie first post.

Comments

  • FuzzypupFuzzypup Posts: 2,581Subscriber
    If you post spolier do it hidden. There is a mechanism for that.

    I would have bet the flop ~3/8 pot. SB already checked so it is very likely he missed here. You only have to beat the limper with the wide range. Since the Ace is the FD and 32 is VERY unlikely in his range AND your hand has ZERO chance to win the pot this I believe is a less -EV play then checking. Also balances for when you do have a random BB special.

    So OTR either our better has a busted FD or he has a weak ace. He could have some goofy set he played like an clown also. The fact he limped in on the CO tells you this guy isn't a good player.

    A Qx hand is very unlikely in his range. The SB seems to be the one with the FD here but his actions. He still could have the weak as well. So you are looking at (42) Ax combos (A2-AT no 2 pairs) we toss in (1) combos of boat and roughly 20-30 combos of FDs depending on how loose he is. The Ace out there means that is 10 combos gone of a potential of 55 (I think it's 55 if he plays all suited hands but most dont). You also have one more person in the pot that either has a weak ace of the busted FD himself.

    So between both possibilities I would fold here. I have seen this scenario so many times where the guy shows up with an Ace. He pot controls his A2o then when the river trips up and everyone checks he feels confident betting. What I think pushes this over the edge from calling to folding is the 2nd player. Very likely he has the FD and that removes a lot of combos from the FD range. Usually around 10 combos 66% of the time. Kxs, Qxs, SCs which each around around 10 combos. So if we weigh this down we remove 6 combos from the total FDs the better can have bringing it down to 15-25. There are 42 Ax combos an you need 3:1 here to be good + beat the 2nd player. Since the SDs are incredibly unlikely I lean on folding. If the board was Ad8d7c 2s Ah and this bet was made and you had like T8 here then I would consider calling as there are a ton of SDs in his potential range.

    His bet size is about the range I see fish doing goofy bluffs with. Usually it is slightly less.

    Do homework on combinatorics so you can work it out in your head at the table or at least get a good feel for them. Very important that way you aren't in a haze in these spots.
  • NotReallyMeNotReallyMe Posts: 7Subscriber
    He had Q9. After the hand I did think it was a pretty clear fold. I have a hard time with the super wide ranges and how often they will bluff rivers. Some do it every time others never. Figured he had enough 9s to warrant a call.
  • FuzzypupFuzzypup Posts: 2,581Subscriber
    Yea I forgot about that hand
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