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$2/$5 Overpair Decision

ds2uaredds2uared Posts: 464Subscriber
Hero just sat down. Villain mid 30's white guy.

$800 eff. (max buy-in). 2 limps. Hero looks at K Q raises to $35 HJ. Villain ($1,500 FWIW) calls in CO. 2 callers OOP.

$140. Flop 9 K 3 Check, check, Hero bets $45. V calls. Folds.

$230. Turn 2 Hero checks. Villain bets $200. Hero calls.

$630. What are Hero's plays depending on the river?
River K. Hero leads $200. Villain tank calls and mucks.
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Comments

  • cruxcrux Posts: 119Subscriber
    edited March 11
    It seems like V will continue betting most rivers, but if a comes it would be an interesting decision. V probably would have expected you to continue betting turn if you had hearts, so maybe check-raise river would be effective as it could look like a bluff with naked A.

    I think you have to lead any, any Q for like 1/3 pot with intention to call any raise.
    Check-call any blank to induce a bet.
    King... probably lead again. Could see check to induce bet with intention to raise, too.
    A nine could be a little gross as V could have something like A9 here and bet turn thinking you c-bet flop with A high. Still check-calling, though.
  • FuzzypupFuzzypup Posts: 2,575Subscriber
    Considering the age, race, and the stack size I would lean on your unknown villain to know what he is doing.

    His turn bet to me seems like a bluff or semibluff with hearts. I just don't think with that bet sizing and your passivity he puts you on a King so he doesn't have a set.

    I'd probably X all rives and let him bluff away. He shouldn't have AK here as you raised from HJ and didnt get 3b.
    I am weighing betting 2/5psb OTR and having him call vs Xing and letting him bet as a bluff. If he has value he will make your bet for you. But if he has a bluff he will bet more. So I like Xing to induce and fucking up his mojo.

    I've done this play myself to the frustration of my opponents as they value own themselves with 2nd pair.
  • GarlandGarland Posts: 518Subscriber
    edited March 11
    Flop bet is a little on the low side, I'd prefer $55-$60. Turn check-call is fine. The river, I'd just lead out $275-$300 on any heart (because I've seen too many villains freeze whenever a flush is possible) and check anything else including K or Q (of which, I would plan to check-raise all-in). If he bets river and you don't improve, then you can evaluate his bet size/mannerisms to decide on whether or not you should call.
    Thanked by 1CycleV
  • SuperflySuperfly Posts: 591Subscriber
    edited March 11
    On such a dry board, his range primarily consists of sets for value and bluffs. Either way, that encourages a check call on any non heart river. If a heart hits, bet small for thin value.
  • BeatsmeBeatsme Posts: 603Subscriber
    First off the flop sizing is way too small. I'm going at least 70 here.

    And is everyone really ok with check calling the turn? This is very surprising to me. This is a card I'm donna keep betting. I think checking is the biggest mistake if the hand. We likely still have the best hand and the best draw. I think we should continue to bet this turn. I dont really understand why we check this turn. What hands does he start a bluff here? I cant think of a single one. But he can still call with KQ KJ KT and all 9 x

    The river is hard to analyze for me because I would never arrive here by playing the turn as a check call.

    @Garland @fuzzypup
    Thanked by 1Sugarman
  • BeatsmeBeatsme Posts: 603Subscriber
    after looking at the spoiler I think we got very lucky that villain fired so big ott. Then decided to pay off with what I guess was a medium strength hand like 9x or TT JJ? Most if the time villains will just check these hands back ott. Which is why we should just bet the turn ourselves so we don't loose value in this spot.
  • GarlandGarland Posts: 518Subscriber
    edited March 16
    Beatsme wrote: »
    after looking at the spoiler I think we got very lucky that villain fired so big ott. Then decided to pay off with what I guess was a medium strength hand like 9x or TT JJ? Most if the time villains will just check these hands back ott. Which is why we should just bet the turn ourselves so we don't loose value in this spot.

    @Beatsme. The idea of checking the turn is we probably have a 2 street value hand unless we improve and we are way ahead or way behind (unless villain specifically has A 9). If he has TT/JJ/9x, we can choose the turn or river to extract that value. Think about it, is villain more likely to call the turn or river with TT/JJ/9x given a clean river card? We also want to have some strong hands in our turn checking range because we don’t want villains to have free reign to bet and have us fold our marginal hands. Top pair with a flush draw is a perfect candidate for this. Also, we would hate life if we bet turn and villain raises big.
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