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Thin river value - 1/2 Orange City, FL ($200 cap buy in)

I'll be going over this hand more in depth in Vlog #1 (Later this week) to discuss my thought process, but wanted to get some feedback on the turn/River play.

This Villain has played relatively passively - He hasn't 3! at all in 4 hours at the table, and generally only bets with made hands post flop. I have played a few hands with him including where I bluffed the river with the nut flush blocker on a pretty scary board, and he called down with a rivered 2 pair after tanking for a bit.

UTG limps, UTG+1 limps, Hero ($400, covers) opens to $12 from the CO with QsJs. Villain in the BB ($350ish) calls, UTG and +1 call. $42 after rake/drop

Flop Ad 10c 6s Checks through.

Turn is the 8c. BB leads for $20, UTG and +1 fold, and I elect to call with a double gutter. We are both deep enough to where we can play for stacks on the right river card. I considered raising here, but after the flop checkback in a multi-way pot, I cannot expect the Villain to have anything short of an Ace, and he definitely isn't folding to a normal sized bet. If I were to raise here, what kind of sizing would you recommend?

$82 The river is a Kc. The Villain grabs some chips as if to bet, but then checks.

Based upon the action, a backdoor flush is the last thing I expect him to show up with. How much are we betting, why, and what would we expect the Villain to call with for these sizings? I contemplated an overbet...


  • joshofalltradesjoshofalltrades Posts: 134Subscriber
    I don’t like a raise on the turn. Based on player profile, do you think he’s betting light? What are we repping with a check back on the flop and then a raise on the turn?

    On the river it’s bombs away. Unlikely that BB has BD flush (though possible with AcXc), but has decent value (wouldn’t shock me if he has AK). Plus we have the history of getting caught bluffing against him. I’m probably going $100-$125, but larger could be fun, too.
    Thanked by 1Steveo76
  • GarlandGarland Posts: 520Subscriber
    Like the line to the river. By default, usually villains will have a threshold of what they will call and what they will fold, and I try to find a number they will have to contemplate (30 seconds to a minute is good). Usually that number is about half the pot, and can be adjusted based on observed tenancies. If over-betting the pot is a big part of your game with some value and bluffs, then I can get on board with that idea.
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