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Maximize value with AA vs. Nitty Villain

1/3 $300 cap. $375 effective.

V is MAWG who plays pretty snug preflop and even more so after the flop. He's the kind of guy that's scared on monsters under the bed, and I think he would generally fold to 3 barrels the vast majority of the time.

MP1 opens to 11, Hero to 50 with A A from MP2, V cold calls from CO, MP1 folds. When V cold calls I am putting him squarely on TT-KK, AK, and maybe AQs.

Flop (Heads up $115) 9 :s: 4 2 Hero bets $35, V raises to $80. Now I'm certain Villain has TT-KK and we'll have $245 remaining after the call. I really think he'll fold TT, JJ, and maybe QQ to a 3!, so what's the plan moving forward?


  • GarlandGarland Posts: 521Subscriber
    Wow, what a 3-bet pre! Congrats on getting action with that sizing. I probably wouldn't go more than $35-$40 unless table dynamics warrant it. With your read, I think the play is relatively simple. Call, hope the turn is clean. Check and let him hang himself.
  • joshofalltradesjoshofalltrades Posts: 134Subscriber
    Admittedly, it was a bit of a mis-click. I meant to make it $45. However, I had been experimenting with larger open sizing (sometimes as high as $25-30 over a few limps), and MP1 limps more often than raising, so the fact that he is opening tells me he is skewed towards the top of his range.
  • FuzzypupFuzzypup Posts: 2,581Subscriber
    So you have $245 left and the pot is $275

    I highly suspect he flatted with KK especially if the raise didn't phase him and he called pretty quick preflop and raised calmly post flop.

    Ok so if he has TT-QQ and you 3 bet... he might fold. If you min-3b he might call. Now if you call will he check through the turn fearing AA.

    I think I would lean on calling and leading turn and river for $110 and $165 (allin). Tough to get all the money in
    min3b get called... That +$45 for turn pot of $365. Now you have $230 left and it is easier to get it in. KK is stacking off anyways.

    Problem is if you just call you will probably get one street of value from him if you check the turn. If he has 99 nothing you can do.
  • joshofalltradesjoshofalltrades Posts: 134Subscriber
    Hero does elect to just call and hope for a favorable turn.

    Turn (Heads up $275, $245 behind) 9 :s: 4 2 3 Hero checks, V snap checks behind.

    River Q :s: It definitely seems like leading is the way to go, so the question is, how big do we go?
  • FuzzypupFuzzypup Posts: 2,581Subscriber
    I'd lead $60ish because he either has QQ or he has an underpair which will be hard pressed to call more. Now your hand range also includes QQ so he certainly WONT bluff you.
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