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Top Pair facing a raise on wet board.

5/10 Commerce. Our image is fairly good/snug. Note: we previously 3! $200 from EP to steal the dead money from a bunch of passive callers against a standard $35 raise. That time it worked so it’s possible villains might be defending more...onto the hand in question.

We pick up AQh from SB. V1 Brazilian pro raises $35. Two callers. Hero 3! $200. V1 pauses to think and makes the call. Heads up. ($480).

Flop QcTcJd. Hero bets $200. Any mistakes here with sizing or perhaps just checking on such a wet, coordinated board that should hit villain’s preflop 3! calling range? Villain raises to $800. ($1480). He has another $800 behind.

Unfortunately, I don’t have any history with villain so don’t know his tendencies...I think just calling is worst option oop? Seems like it should be shove to deny equity or fold?



  • DaddyslapDaddyslap Posts: 110Subscriber
    I'd agree that calling here is the worst option - Villain's 3! flat range connects with this board including hands like 99, 88, 910s, J10s, 1010, KQ, etc. Your 3! range vs this board is also kinda scary - You have the sets, you have AK, KK, KQs, AQs+os, AJs, possible A10s, etc.

    This is the kind of board where we should Cbet (typically down bet is advised to $150-175), and when the Villain shows us a massive flop raise that immediately puts us to a decision for stacks, their range becomes heavily weighted to value. Combos draws are still present, but your range holds all combos of the nuts, so I can't see this being a bluff unless they have a read on you.

    If we think the Villain is flatting AK, QQ, JJ, or 1010 in this formation, I think we end up with a shrug fold. I think the range is wider than that, but we are never getting a draw to fold to a jam based upon stack sizes. The sizing of this raise is quite suspect...

    What did you do?
  • GarlandGarland Posts: 520Subscriber
  • DaddyslapDaddyslap Posts: 110Subscriber
    Thanks Garland, Glad to see my analysis wasn't far off from the pack!
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