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2/5 Easy Fold?

Game is loose passive preflop, but very multiway often.
Hero covers table. Hero has played solid preflop for first hour.

2 calls. Hero raises to $30 otb with 5 :s: 6 :s:. SB ($600) calls. 2 limpers call.

$118. 9 7 4 :s:. SB donks $75. 1 limper calls. Other limper tank folds. Hero...

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Comments

  • neutron212neutron212 Posts: 23Subscriber
    It's a fold. You have a back door flush and if you hit the 8 ( only three of them are good) you'll have the dumb end of the stright. Also with a donk and a call in front of you both of them are most likely on a draw better then yours with overs.
  • GarlandGarland Posts: 520Subscriber
    edited February 19
    I'm assume $600 SB is the effective stack. I can see going either way on the flop (raising or folding)...really depends on SB tendencies. By default, I'm probably taking the equity, calling and playing my position.
    Thanked by 3Steveo76 CycleV hustlin
  • Steveo76Steveo76 Posts: 161Subscriber
    If the SB is the effective stack I like calling on the flop. There might be ways to win this hand that open up on later streets. This is a great spot to utilise the power of position. You are just about deep enough IMO. Also, I don't agree that your non diamond 8s are all that dirty. I don't see the Villains having much J10 here, unless it's exactly Jd10d. And I can't envisage any combos of 10 6 being in the equation, unless the SB is terrible enough to call pre-flop with 10d6d. Granted, anything is possible at these stakes! So I'm feeling good about my non diamond straight outs.

    It might even be that neither player is on the diamond draw and that could be something you could rep yourself if one falls OTT and the Villains check to you.

    This is an opportunity to put your post-flop game to the test and $75 is a reasonable exam fee. Of course this isn't reason enough to call by itself. There are the 3.5 to 1 pot odds and implied odds. But I think there's another way that we stand to gain. That is the intangible 'poker growth' that takes place within us for the experience. A bit deep, maybe, but it's not always just about the money.







    Thanked by 1CycleV
  • 3BBRC3BBRC Posts: 33Subscriber
    I think folding here is way too tight. We can call and play some turns or raise and jam on non diamonds non 9x. When we call flop we will have plenty of turns to take it away when checked to. If we call and the sb bombs turn we can just fold
    Thanked by 3Steveo76 CycleV hustlin
  • hustlinhustlin Posts: 366Subscriber
    What above posters said. All made some great points.

    No way folding this OESD + bd flush draw. Also u got the best position. Your in a favourable spot here.
  • FuzzypupFuzzypup Posts: 2,581Subscriber
    You got on average 4 outs. 1 has the FD very likely. The other maybe a pair maybe a SD maybe a FD. Likely an out is gone on this board since they limp called the raise. Neither has paint which isn't a FD. only 3 outs get you paid. An 8 is obvious. You really need to makes at least $400 more on this hand. Two passive players are continuing.

    I'd say if they will X the turn you could call but if they bet no. Pots $275 already and I don't think you have bluffing room.

    Say you raise $175 and dodge the 9 flush cards. Pot will be 575 OTT with you having $400 left for a bluff shove. Assuming both call.

    Really this all depends on the players. I lean on folding in spots like this where it's hard to bluff vs 2 and the sucker end of a SD vs very likely a FD
    Thanked by 2neutron212 Superfly
  • 3BBRC3BBRC Posts: 33Subscriber
    First rule of poker: pot odds. We’re getting a great price closing the action in position. Cant imagine folding a hand this good
  • LatvianMissileLatvianMissile Posts: 296Subscriber
    edited February 21
    I'd raise it to 250. SB looks like he has a 9 and will fold. You can bluff out the other limper if he decides to call with a FD.

    I do understand the arguments for calling and I think calling is fine, but I prefer repping an overpair and just taking it down on the flop.
  • ds2uaredds2uared Posts: 464Subscriber
    edited February 22
    I ended up folding for a few reasons:

    Stacks aren't so deep I can raise effectively and continue to bluff on the turn;
    There could be a flush draw and some of my outs can be dead;
    Only 3 cards give me the best possible hand;
    Even if one of those 3 cards comes on the turn or river, a scare card on the other street could a) make me lose the pot or b) scare away the money I should be winning anyway;
    And lastly, the SB donked 66% of the pot into 3 players, including the preflop raiser and got one caller in between. There's at least a 50% chance I only see one card at this price;

    I think calling is the worst here.
  • SuperflySuperfly Posts: 594Subscriber
    edited February 22
    We have at most 6 outs, possibly less, if either V has a FD. That’s about 12% equity, meaning we need 9:1 pot + implied odds or or a chance to earn $675 in total to justify a call with the hope of hitting the OESD on the turn. So I have trouble seeing this as a situation where we’re getting a great price to call. It’s so-so ok at best.

    And thoughts about raising on the flop seem way too optimistic. SB donking 60% pot multi-way on a wettish board is strong. Limper calling with PFR yet to act is also strong. You can’t have high confidence that both will fold.

    As for expecting to be able to bluff many turns on blanks, I don’t know. This board hits callers range harder than PFR. And we’ve already noted that Vs seem have hit this board based on flop action. I think the spots where the turn will check thru to us and give us a good bluff scenario are negligible. Maybe a high non-diamond? I can’t see bluffing much else. And I’d only attempt it if it checked to us. Low probability. Thus we shouldn’t use the potential opportunity the bluff turns as motivation for calling flop.

    So I think our options are to call or fold on the flop, and it’s a close decision. I can see how enticing it is to call on the surface, but not sure it’s the right decision after evaluating the odds.
  • ChaosInEquilibriumChaosInEquilibrium Posts: 42Subscriber
    edited February 22
    This doesnt seem like a very close spot. We're getting over 4:1 on the call, we have 8 outs to the straight, plus 1 out for the BDFD. We have 9 outs on the turn, so ~20% equity assuming we only see 1 more card. Factoring in implied odds + we can bluff certain scare cards (we can jam A/K non-diamond turn if it checks to us), I think it's an easy call.

    I think comments so far are too nervous about our diamond completing outs being dirty. That might be true, but we'll be able to suss out cooler spots if the diamond completing straight card hits due to our position. I.e., if the 8 comes, and if the middle player leads into us, we can fold.
    Thanked by 1Steveo76
  • SuperflySuperfly Posts: 594Subscriber
    edited February 22
    @ChaosinEquilibrium, SB donks into multiway pot vs PFR and another field caller calls with PFR yet to act, and you’ don’t expect either to have a flush or some kind of bigger combo draw? What do you put them on? A set and an TPTK? You’re giving yourself way to many optimistic outs. And you don’t even hit the nuts even if you do hit. It’s close AT BEST.
  • GarlandGarland Posts: 520Subscriber
    You have a deceptive hand and can try to take it away on various turns using your position.

    If you are not continuing on this flop, I contend you should not have raised it pre-flop in the first place. It is not a sin to limp or even fold pre.
    Thanked by 13BBRC
  • 3BBRC3BBRC Posts: 33Subscriber
    This ^
  • ds2uaredds2uared Posts: 464Subscriber
    edited February 23
    Garland wrote: »
    If you are not continuing on this flop, I contend you should not have raised it pre-flop in the first place. It is not a sin to limp or even fold pre.

    This is not logical. There is obvious value in taking down the dead money preflop and/or on the flop. This configuration is only one exception

    For instance, if the 9 on the flop is an Ace, K, Q, J, T, 6, 5, or 2, it definitely moves the needle toward continuing in the hand (call or raise).

    Ex. If I raise over 2 limps with K :s: K otb and get 3 callers and the board comes out T98's, I will probably be calling the SB donk and 1 caller because I am likely still ahead but raising is suicidal. With the 6 :s: 5 :s: hand, I am definitely not ahead and a lot of cards that improve my hand on the turn don't get paid off and/or have reverse implied odds.

    So the "shouldn't have raised it pre" is inconsistent (even thought KK obviously has more solid value than 65), there is still certainly value in raising otb with the bottom of my range.
  • ChaosInEquilibriumChaosInEquilibrium Posts: 42Subscriber
    edited February 23
    @Superfly
    SB should not have a lot of 9x cold calling from the SB. This screams TT or JJ to me. I don't think SB is donk leading with a set, usually a set is going to be taken for a x/r. Still, whatever the case may be, SB doesn't block our outs, and he likely has an overpair+. We're getting paid by SB if we hit our outs.

    I think the inbetween limper has a split range of straight draws (T8s,68s,65s), diamond draws, and some 9s. He has diamonds less than 50% of the time. If one of our diamond outs hits, we can play it conservatively and check back turn to play rivers, or if limper leads into us we can just fold. It's not like we're married to the pot in a huge RIO spot if limper has diamonds.

    So, we have between 7 and 9 outs (counting the BDFD as 1 out per street), depending whether limper has diamonds. We have on average 8 outs. That's 17% ish equity assuming we only see 1 street, or 5:1. We're getting around 3.5:1 in pot odds with a chance to stack SBs likely overpair. That's not even accounting for the fact out call makes our hand look a lot like QQ-AA and theres a chance we can take the pot away on the turn if it checks to us. All considered, I think it's a profitable spot to call. Without the BDFD I'm more inclined to fold 65s in this spot.
    Thanked by 1Steveo76
  • SuperflySuperfly Posts: 594Subscriber
    @ChaosInEquilibrium. I don’t think you’re implied odds vs SB are as good as you think. An 8 on the turn is a huge scare card to JJ/TT. And it could very well give V2 a better hand.

    I also think the turn cards you can bluff confidently are few (A/K), and that your bluff success rate is uncertain vs two Vs - one of whom is liable to have an overpair, with the other quite likely on a combo draw.

    So I’m sticking to my guns on this one. To say this is not even close still seems very optimistic to me, and TBH I think even your own analysis demonstrates that.
  • ChaosInEquilibriumChaosInEquilibrium Posts: 42Subscriber
    edited February 23
    @Superfly
    Okay, I'll just say one last thing: When we overcall it looks a lot like an overpair, QQ-AA, and I think we get to see a second free card a decent chunk of the time when the SB has TT,JJ. If we get to see a second free card just one time in 3, that increases our equity by 33%. So our equity goes from 17% to 23%. We'll be +EV based on pot odds alone.

    The analysis above doesnt factor in additional money we can win if we hit, or additional money derived from bluffing certain runnouts. That's why I think it isnt particularly a close spot.

    But I can see your side of things as well. I wouldn't say I'm loving this spot. It's not a slam dunk call. It's just that a fold is a little too tight for my style of play... if we can handread a little bit on later streets, we can avoid RIO spots where limper has a diamond draw and 8/3 hits.

    JTo from the limper is a valid concern, but if he really is loose enough to play JTo preflop, he's gonna have a lot more 9x to compensate, like A9o/K9o. I kind of doubt that as many of our outs are dirty as you think.

    FWIW I think this is an easy fold if we were acting OOP for the rest of the hand
  • SuperflySuperfly Posts: 594Subscriber
    @ChaosInEquilibrium, IDK, I don’t think I would just call with AA-QQ multi-way on a wet board with lots of draws but few made hands that beat me. Pretty sure most people would raise here for value/protection, possibly folding to a shove.
  • GarlandGarland Posts: 520Subscriber
    edited February 24
    ds2uared wrote: »
    Garland wrote: »
    If you are not continuing on this flop, I contend you should not have raised it pre-flop in the first place. It is not a sin to limp or even fold pre.
    This is not logical. There is obvious value in taking down the dead money preflop and/or on the flop. This configuration is only one exception

    For instance, if the 9 on the flop is an Ace, K, Q, J, T, 6, 5, or 2, it definitely moves the needle toward continuing in the hand (call or raise).

    Ex. If I raise over 2 limps with K :s: K otb and get 3 callers and the board comes out T98's, I will probably be calling the SB donk and 1 caller because I am likely still ahead but raising is suicidal. With the 6 :s: 5 :s: hand, I am definitely not ahead and a lot of cards that improve my hand on the turn don't get paid off and/or have reverse implied odds.

    So the "shouldn't have raised it pre" is inconsistent (even thought KK obviously has more solid value than 65), there is still certainly value in raising otb with the bottom of my range.

    Make no mistake: When you have KK, you are raising for value. When you are raising with 65s, you are bluffing with a speculative hand with no showdown value and raising for deception. If you choose to raise 65s, then you will need to (1) find ways to win with the worst hand and (2) if you flop about as good as you get (barring the rare 2pair+ flops) be willing to continue with your draw in position.

    I get your concerns about dummy end of straight and diamonds, but as played, no one is likely to have JT (or T6) unless specifically they are suited in diamonds, that's 2 combos. You can't worry about this. If turn comes 3 or 8, you are entitled to fold if you see action you don't like, thus the power of position. Another consideration is the turn is dynamic and the top card can easily change. You may not be faced with a turn bet and you can very possibly see 2 cards (or try to take it away if checked to on the turn).
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