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Combo draw flop spot

SugarmanSugarman Posts: 39Subscriber
edited February 14 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
1/3-300, H has $390, 7-handed.

Hero “UTG” (+2) open 8s7s $12, HJ, CO, BU and BB c.
($54). Flop: QsJsTc.
BB x, H bets $30(?), HJ ($230) c, CO r $100. Folds to H. H?
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Comments

  • FuzzypupFuzzypup Posts: 2,575Subscriber
    More likely neither have a flush but you still have BB to deal with. $214 and $70 to call. You need 4 for 1 to make this call with implied odds. But your mistake was betting the flop. Why were you betting on a 3 paint board vs 3 callers? You have no fold equity here. Your straight is no good most likely.
    Thanked by 2CycleV Superfly
  • SugarmanSugarman Posts: 39Subscriber
    edited February 14
    Fuzzypup wrote: »
    More likely neither have a flush but you still have BB to deal with. $214 and $70 to call. You need 4 for 1 to make this call with implied odds. But your mistake was betting the flop. Why were you betting on a 3 paint board vs 3 callers? You have no fold equity here. Your straight is no good most likely.

    Why would I need 4:1 here? How did you arrive at that?

    Also, I bet bc the Vs in this hand were very soft/passive so I thought that betting this way would allow me to realise my equity best than going into xc mode but am open to being convinced otherwise.

  • DaddyslapDaddyslap Posts: 110Subscriber
    edited February 14
    Being a 5 way flop and one of the wettest possible boards we can ever see, I don't like the Cbet even with a flush draw. Our gutter doesn't play as it's quite easy for any of these villains to a have a K, and our flush draw can easily be dominated by Axs and Kxs type hands that won't 3! pre but will be happy to call a Cbet in a multiway pot. Combo draws are all over the place with 4 opponents.

    If we are intent on playing this hand aggressively, I can see an argument for checking with the intent of raising/Jamming the flop for fold equity, but this is typically suicide as we are usually getting it in against worse draws.

    The biggest factor in this pot is that you are 5 ways. This should be a c/f most of the time as we don't have any idea where we are against 4 Villains.

    As played, I'm folding to the raise as there is just far too many hands we have reverse implied odds against.
  • CycleVCycleV Posts: 1,196Subscriber
    OP, I'm guessing you may benefit from listening to Bart's C-bet Matrix pod (just search and it should come up, or it's in the curriculum). This board is so wet I wouldn't be surprised to learn that the dealer called custodial services for a clean-up... but the guy with the mop couldn't get through cuz the table was so crowded with preflop callers. Other than that, it's a perfect spot to c-bet with 8 high!

    In seriousness, a loose-passive table is the exact wrong time to bluff this flop. They aren't aggressive enough to raise AK pre so they definitely have all straights and sets in their range. They call JTo type hands pre so all the 2p are here, and who knows if they are good enough to fold to 3 barrels. And I wasn't kidding when I said that almost half the casino called pre. Trying to bluff 4 guys is suicide.
    Thanked by 1Superfly
  • SuperflySuperfly Posts: 591Subscriber
    Custodial services, lol. You kill me @CycleV. I agree with everyone’s response, but enjoyed yours the most!
    Thanked by 1CycleV
  • FuzzypupFuzzypup Posts: 2,575Subscriber
    Sugarman wrote: »
    Fuzzypup wrote: »
    More likely neither have a flush but you still have BB to deal with. $214 and $70 to call. You need 4 for 1 to make this call with implied odds. But your mistake was betting the flop. Why were you betting on a 3 paint board vs 3 callers? You have no fold equity here. Your straight is no good most likely.

    Why would I need 4:1 here? How did you arrive at that?

    Also, I bet bc the Vs in this hand were very soft/passive so I thought that betting this way would allow me to realise my equity best than going into xc mode but am open to being convinced otherwise.

    I was just stating what you needed to break even assuming no one else had a flush draw or a set amd the BB not playing back. You are getting 3:1 direct. You can't count your straight and you still have to discount the chance someone else has a flush. So 4:1 is the most optimistic total odds. So you need to think if you can at least make $70 more OTT to break even. I would want to make $140 for all the other variables. So if you think you can get paid $140 go for it. I didn't imply you shouldn't call. I just implied to consider all the values.

    Off the top of my head I think the BB has around a 4% chance to have your FD in his hand.
  • SugarmanSugarman Posts: 39Subscriber
    edited February 15
    CycleV wrote: »
    OP, I'm guessing you may benefit from listening to Bart's C-bet Matrix pod (just search and it should come up, or it's in the curriculum). This board is so wet I wouldn't be surprised to learn that the dealer called custodial services for a clean-up... but the guy with the mop couldn't get through cuz the table was so crowded with preflop callers. Other than that, it's a perfect spot to c-bet with 8 high!

    In seriousness, a loose-passive table is the exact wrong time to bluff this flop. They aren't aggressive enough to raise AK pre so they definitely have all straights and sets in their range. They call JTo type hands pre so all the 2p are here, and who knows if they are good enough to fold to 3 barrels. And I wasn't kidding when I said that almost half the casino called pre. Trying to bluff 4 guys is suicide.

    I have listened to the cbet matrix podcast and I agree a x (likely looking to xf) is best here but just because a player is loose passive doesn’t mean they don’t necessarily raise their premiums, I expect JJ+/AK to be 3b off here by somebody at a high frequency preflop. Certainly they can have lots of other strong hands like K9/98/2p.

    I will say, the purpose of the flop bet wasn’t to “bluff 4 guys”. It was to clean up the field, try to get people with position on me to fold, and allow me to keep initiative when I do make my hand. I agree though, the bet is poor as we’re so MW against ranges which interact well with this board, our FD may very well be dominated, we’ll frequently be raised on textured boards such as these and will be put into a spot such as this one where I’m forced to fold what could be a heap of equity.
  • FuzzypupFuzzypup Posts: 2,575Subscriber
    You would much rather make this bet on a 234 flop than the paint flop. This forced those with KQ, KJ, QJ to fold their equity. Here you are only making 22 fold. Which you would love a 2 to come with your flush card.

    Or if you could block bet. In some situation my callers will only call whatever bet I make but if I check they will blindly bet pot.
    Thanked by 1Sugarman
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