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$1/2 3! Straddled Pot, Turn decision

cruxcrux Posts: 119Subscriber
edited February 6 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
$1/2
$10 Button Straddle

H ~$455 effective BB 5 6
BTN has about $2k, is 48 hours into his session apparently. I have seen him call very light and have caught him bluffing with bottom pair once already with a big overbet where I had two pair.
UTG1 about $1k, LAG, also deep into a 24hr+ session. Competent, but 3! a lot and showing up with a big mix of hands.

H open $25, UTG1 55, BTN Call, H Call

Flop ($166) 4 7 J
I lead $75, call, call

Turn ($391) J
I lead $125, call, BTN jam, ?


As to how I played the hand to the turn, I think there is certainly a good argument for folding pre-flop, or 4! bluffing once I do choose to open. 56 is a hand I've used a couple of times for this, but against these particular V's I don't expect a fold from much of anything pre unless I jam so I elect to flat.

On flop, better to check-raise? I'm ahead of everything from an equity standpoint unless one V is holding higher diamonds. My thought was to lead expecting a raise from over-pairs and planning to 3! jam.
--
I got myself in a bit of a pickle, obviously, but in doing the math in game I think I still should call based solely on pot odds.
Assuming V has Jx or over-pair, I have 16 outs here (8 flush since the 7d is removed, and 8 straight), which is about 30% to win going to the river.
Pot is now $765, another $250 for me to call.

I did call off. UTG1 folds.

River bricked and I'm felted. Wrong move?

Comments

  • GarlandGarland Posts: 524Subscriber
    edited February 6
    You don't mention how many handed, but 56s is just a fold preflop. You're only 45 Big Blinds deep with a $10 straddle and 1st to act on all streets and don't want to face a 3-bet. Once you're 3-bet, even given the price with a 3rd player, I would actually find a fold.

    Once you arrive at the flop, the best play is to check with the intent of check-raising all-in. The plan to bet, 3-bet is flawed because (a) you are not guaranteed a raise, even from an overpair and (b) if a raise occurs, you won't have enough money back to induce a fold.

    The turn is a check and evaluate. I do not envision getting 2 folds through. Hope someone doesn't put you all-in and maybe try to take your equity. Unfortunately, you could be drawing dead.

    As played, you can calculate the pot odds: $240 into a pot of $765 means you need $240/($765+$240) = 31% equity to call.

    There are 9 diamonds and 6 non-diamond straight outs, but let's say you only have 7 diamonds (because 7 and whatever kicker Jx has is dead) and assume all offsuit 3 and 8 are good, then you have 13 outs. Assuming you're not drawing dead, you have 13/46 = 28% equity. If you calculate the times you're going against 44/77/JJ, you have 0% equity a certain % of the time. This is close, but I probably find a call to gamble gamble.
    Thanked by 2crux Daddyslap
  • hustlinhustlin Posts: 366Subscriber
    X/C or X/RAI is ideal on this flop. Leading really accomplishes nothing, if anything it bloats the pot too much with your drawing hand. these guy seem aggressive, give them some rope to bluff here.

    As played on turn I think its a fold, your kind o of have enough equity off the top of my head. the problem is the paired board some of your outs are no good if villain has like Jx. also i would never lead the turn haha, especially for that small sizing.

  • FuzzypupFuzzypup Posts: 2,581Subscriber
    You played this wrong on every street.

    Fold preflop.

    XRAI flop which would totally make it look like you hold a set. The pot is huge and you are indifferent if they fold or call with a XR. Assume one of them bets $100 into $166 = $266 ... You have $425. You risk $425 to win $266 which translates into you having to be ahead 61% of the time to pull this play which by raw equity vs an entire range you are considering they will fold better holdings like a weak Jack. Even vs a set you are 40%. if the 1st bets and the 2nd calls you are in an even better equity situation.

    Turn X. Why are you betting? For value? For bluffing? For information? For naming your price? You basically can only bet large here repping the J which doesn't seem to fit your -1UTG range. If you had quads you'd check. Since 2 called it is very likely one of them has a Jack. As played you have 14 outs if you aren't already drawing to 2 outs. You need 24% equity here to call. If the board wasn't pair it's a call. But since it is I believe this is a fold.
    Thanked by 1crux
  • cruxcrux Posts: 119Subscriber
    edited February 8
    Fuzzypup wrote: »
    You played this wrong on every street.

    Yes.
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