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Flop Broadway, Turn Pairs board..

cruxcrux Posts: 119Subscriber
$100 buy-in "Survivor" tournament at the local card room.
V in the hand is an older woman (late 60s ish) on my direct right on the BTN, has me covered.
This is about the 8th hand of the day for me, after buying in a little late. No real read on the table, except generalizations.

Blind level: 100/200

Hero in SB Q :s: T
~19k effective stack

UTG limp, fold to V 600, H call, UTG call

Flop (2000) A :s: K J
Chk to V 1200, Hero 5,000, fold to V call

Turn (12k) A
Lead 6500, V Jam


Do I fold here?? I've got about 25BB behind if I fold. Busted if call off and V has the boat or maybe even quads...

Comments

  • JustfourfunJustfourfun Posts: 200Subscriber
    After you bet 6500 on the turn you have (19000-600-5000-6500=6,900) so 6900 to win (12000+13000+13800= 38,800). V’s turn shove is giving us 5.5 to 1 on our remaining 6900. So what are the chances that an older 60ish woman is bluffing here? Or, that she is not necessarily bluffing but unaware how scary this board is? Could V be a weak player just happy to have trip As? V having AQ seems possible, V having Ax is also possible. You have really shown strength in the hand otf and turn so wouldn’t V flat your turn bet with AK or AJ and hope you shove the river? This one is close and V may very well have you beat with AJ, AK or AA but I am calling here. I would call because of the 5.5 to 1 and because V should flat the turn holding a big hand.
  • cruxcrux Posts: 119Subscriber
    With it being so early and blinds still low, I ended up folding and hoping for a better spot to potentially go broke, and leave myself a workable stack through the low blind levels.
    In game, I didn't see that many bluffs for this particular V. I thought JJ, KK, AJ, AK and AA were all very likely holdings.
    At best I thought I was calling to chop.

    Afterwards I second guessed my decision, for all the reasons you listed, and think I should have called.

    I never found out what she had.
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