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River decision when we run in to TPTK

$1/$3 $200 Effective. Villain is nerdy white guy in his late 30's/early 40's. He's only been at the table for half an hour or so. I won't go so far as to call him a nit, but like most STEM types, he is certainly cautious, often taking more passive lines.

V limps UTG +1, H to $15 from LJ with A Q, Loose Asian calls from BB, V calls.

($45 3-way) 7 5 5 Checks to H, who bets $25. BB folds, V calls. (Also worth noting that V did glance at his chips prior to his action)

( $95 HU) 7 5 5 J X/X

($95 HU) 7 5 5 J Q :s: V very deliberately leads for $46. Hero?

Comments

  • LatvianMissileLatvianMissile Posts: 294Subscriber
    You only need to be good here 1 in 4 times. If he'd bluff missed Diamonds, then it's a call. That's just the guess you have to make.

    Having the Q takes away some hands that would call flop and bet river that you beat like QTdd. Without the A in my hand against an unknown and probably at the top of my range (only the QJ combos are better here), I call especially to a small bet.
    Thanked by 3kaboojie Steveo76 crux
  • joshofalltradesjoshofalltrades Posts: 134Subscriber
    I definitely feel like it's a call in theory. Do you ever consider an exploitative fold in this spot?
  • hustlinhustlin Posts: 362Subscriber
    U can never fold here.
    U got TPTK. He could have missed flush draws and OESD.
    Also you can consider raising here for value.
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