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Folding Aces preflop multiway?

Stakes: $5-5-10

Table is full of recs and we've all been drinking and playing for several hours (dream). It is late in the night


UTG ($800 eff, just sat down and was at the other table. Claimed to be stuck piles over there).
UTG+1 ($1000 eff, been here since the beginning very loose and drinking)
UTG+2 (another loose player with action)
CO (Hero with table covered)
BTN (Around $2.5k, just sat down an hour or two ago not drinking, hasn't been playing many hands)

Action:

UTG+1 opens for $30
UTG+2 3! for $80
I flat in CO with AAJ2r
BTN pots for $370
UTG Straddle shoves for $800
UTG+1 shoves for $1000

Hero?


I haven't played too much PLO, less than 100 hours lifetime, is there a clear decision here? I'm aware that while this is aces this is not a particularly great hand as I'm not suited and J2 doesn't give me any options for wraps.

Comments

  • JoneseyJonesey Posts: 151Subscriber
    I’m assuming UTG2 folded? It’s a very high variance situation and for that reason alone I might just fold. But if you’re fine with the variance then the most important factor for me is the button. If you jam you could get heads up for his last $1500 and you aren’t in that bad of shape heads up for the big side pot with chances to win the main with top set or a KQT board. You might also have a bunching situation where a lot of the players share the same Broadway outs, which would improve your equity. Nothing wrong with avoiding high variance situations but I don’t think you’re in bad shape equity wise for the price you’re getting. I would jam or fold.
  • tripleuptripleup Posts: 3Subscriber
    Jonesey wrote: »
    I’m assuming UTG2 folded? It’s a very high variance situation and for that reason alone I might just fold. But if you’re fine with the variance then the most important factor for me is the button. If you jam you could get heads up for his last $1500 and you aren’t in that bad of shape heads up for the big side pot with chances to win the main with top set or a KQT board. You might also have a bunching situation where a lot of the players share the same Broadway outs, which would improve your equity. Nothing wrong with avoiding high variance situations but I don’t think you’re in bad shape equity wise for the price you’re getting. I would jam or fold.

    Sorry yes UTG+2 folded, and yes I also recognized it was a jam or fold situation. While I'm not opposed to avoiding high variance situations I'm just wondering if I even have enough equity 4-ways to consider going with this. Button hasn't made a play since he's sat down so I'm guessing if I jam he's calling, and he's calling for a reasonably sized side-pot. While it could be bunching and blocking each other they could also be blocking me with NFDs or Aces. I do feel like someone has Aces here because I haven't seen a 4! or 5! since I sat down and we were at the tail end of a 14 hour session.
  • JoneseyJonesey Posts: 151Subscriber
    If this is highly unusual action you might be correct that AA is out there, and your aces look pretty weak. What did you do?
  • tripleuptripleup Posts: 3Subscriber
    Jonesey wrote: »
    If this is highly unusual action you might be correct that AA is out there, and your aces look pretty weak. What did you do?

    I ended up shipping but I didn't like the play. The button ended up have Aces double suited, but luckily me and him chopped our side pot. The $800 eff player had kings and flopped a king, the $1000 eff player had some sort of runout I would imagine (only showed JT when the board runout had KQxxx on it). Only ended up losing a minimal amount, but still unsure as to whether or not this was correct or not.
    Thanked by 1Jonesey
  • JoneseyJonesey Posts: 151Subscriber
    Thanks. I love PLO but this forum has gone dry. I’ll try to post more.
  • TerpHimselfTerpHimself Posts: 328Subscriber
    Hey @tripleup thanks for posting. If you're a sub, I would recommend the latest podcast I did "PLO Handreading" b/c this situation is a very clear example of the concepts I was talking about in that podcast.

    Let's break it down from your perspective as describe:

    -Action players are raising and getting their money in. We definitely fair to have the best hand pre vs their ranges.

    -Button, as described, has not been action. He willingly 3-bet, knowing that his bet will likely commit both action players, and maybe you as well (I'm not sure how he views you)

    So Jonesy is right, the button's stack is the most important, b/c of side pot implications. But what do we read the button has based on his actions, and the fact that he is willing to put his large stack into play vs three opponents, two of which have show strength (and you, the caller, actually have AAxx here).

    Yes, the probability of someone also having AAxx here is low, but let the action do the talking. The most likely candidate to also hold AAxx is the button, and your particular AAxx hand is going to not be favored vs his AAxx range (and we find out he was indeed double suited).

    So your decision is based on the more likely than usual outcome of getting it in vs another AAxx and hoping to hold on for a chop, then also beating two other hands with likely just one pair, as you only have hopes of Broadway or a wheel to improve your hand, with no A available for a set.

    Running this hand in PPT vs expected ranges (I tightened up our loose V's to 30% ranges b/c they are willing to get their chips in pre-flop) we get this:

    AAJ2r = 16.29%
    AAxx = 23 %
    V1 30% = 30.37%
    V2 30% =30.26%

    Side pot match up vs AAxx leaves us a 55/45 dog, and it should be a little worse b/c his AAxx range is weighted as stronger than the random AAxx calculation.

    So we are willingly getting our money in 4 ways with the worst equity, but committing the most money. Getting into a $3K side pot is a -$150 decision (5% of $3K), then we are also negative EV vs the other two players in the respective side pots, while often chopping whatever we win.

    The situation is quite different if one of our wild friends is the effective stack. Let's say we are pretty sure that the button is not a good player and will GII vs us with a 30% range. Now our equity in the side pot swaps to our AAJ2 hand holding a 62/38 equity edge in the pot that matters most.

    So in this exact instance, if I read the button for likely having AAxx here, and his action really screams it is so given the action, his stack size, and how we view him and how he likely views his opponents, we do need to fold here to avoid putting a large amount of money in bad. The results are actually one of the better outcomes we can hope for.

    Thanks for the reply @Jonesey I apologize for my recent forum absence.
  • JoneseyJonesey Posts: 151Subscriber
    When plo miyagi speaks, we listen and learn.
  • TerpHimselfTerpHimself Posts: 328Subscriber
    Haha I am here for my grasshoppers. But don't ask me to catch any flies. I'm terrible with chopsticks.
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