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$2/$5 AQs versus Villain We Just Doubled

Hero just doubled villain, who is loose, passive rec. who gets stubborn after losing a few hands in a row. (Hero found out the hard way he recently lost with trip jacks versus a flush).

Hero raises $20 A Q utg+1. Villain ($450 eff.) calls from HJ. BB calls.

$55. A J 8. BB checks. Hero bets $45. Villain raises to $155. BB folds. Hero calls.

$365. K. Hero checks. Villain snaps all-in $275. Hero?
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Comments

  • GarlandGarland Posts: 518Subscriber
    These spots annoy me, and I'm sure there will be conflicting views. Loose passive recs aren't going gonzo on this flop with a hand you beat except for maybe specifically K Q or Q T (perhaps T 9). Otherwise this is AK+ all day. I would annoyingly fold the flop, but I don't blame you for calling the flop, but I'm releasing on that turn.
    Thanked by 1CycleV
  • SuperflySuperfly Posts: 591Subscriber
    This seems somewhat V dependent. Is he just stubborn as in not folding draws, or is he aggressive and bluffy?

    The flop raise and turn bet sizes look like value, Also he c/rs into two people on the flop. And you would think the K on the turn would be a scare card for him (you should have all AK). So if he’s not maniacal, guess I would fold here. You need to be right 1 out of 3.3 times.
    Thanked by 1CycleV
  • FriendlyFishFriendlyFish Posts: 123Member
    If hes loose he can have A8s J8s, passive he can have AK JJ.....88 as well obviously. If he’s passive and decides to raise bluff. Q10 is a good candidate since it has 2 gutters (makes it harder to see) to the absolute nuts on non heart K and 9. Now i know we block Qc10c leaving him with 3 suited combos. But if he’s loose enough, there’s going to be some Q10o too. Kh8h might be a stretch (depending how loose) also got there.

    For the bluffs that haven't got there. They still got decent equity like straight draw flush draws, pair + flush draws.

    Also even if villian is not a competent player, they are going to realize bluffing on a A J 8 K board is not a good idea since you will have AA JJ AK. AJs and 88 (if you open those utg) and you will have Q10s too if you open those (i open these utg)
  • kaboojiekaboojie Posts: 518Subscriber
    You need to be good like 30% to break even.

    If we give V AJ+, 88, JJ, AA, and 6 fds of 87hh-T9hh, QThh, KThh, KQhh, you are pretty much breaking even.

    When you consider what a loose passive V will raise the flop then empty the clip with, I think it will have a lot more value hands and a lot less fd hands.

    Turn is a clear fold imo. Folding the flop is debatable, as an exploit.
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