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$2/$5 - Royal Flush Draw - 3! Pot

JredAJredA Posts: 100Subscriber
edited November 2019 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
$2/$5 Live Casino
Currently 6 handed as a few people are on break

Villain appears a bit tilted after getting stacked twice and re-buying. Appeared to get it in ahead and villains got there by the river. Recently bought in for $1k and ran his stack up to $1.4k to start this hand. He has not been afraid to put his money in, even more so since being felted. I have also seen him make some questionable calls (light calls). He seems to be a solid hand reader and pays attention to the action.

Hero has a tight image this session due to a dry spell of cards. But has played with villain in the past and Hero has the image of LAG. Hero is effective and started the hand with $1.1k.

Villain open UTG (6 handed) to $20.

Hero 3! to $75 on the BTN w/ AhKh. Villain quickly calls.

Flop ($150) = Qh Jh 3s

Villain ch. Hero $90. Villain calls.

Turn ($330) = Qs

Villain ch. Hero ch behind.

River ($330) = 4d

Villain ch. Hero $250.

Should I be betting this turn with the plan on going 3 streets?

My thought on the turn was that I would be checking most hands in my range here (AA, KK, AK to name a few). The Q also hits his range pretty hard. I doubt I go 3 streets with a hand like AA or KK, so I thought I would be pretty polarized doing so as a bluff. On the other hand I have a pretty strong draw.

Thanks in advance!
Thanked by 1Baggio95
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Comments

  • kaboojiekaboojie Posts: 518Subscriber
    I like the check back ott. Like you said, V will def have some Qx in his range and it would suck to face a c/r here.

    Depending how light you think V will call, a river bet seems reasonable. I think he's def leading the river with Qx. He will have a hard time calling here with a J or an under pair unless he is very sticky.

    In a true GTO sense, you should prob check back the river, as you are blocking the worse part of V's flop calling range (fds)
    It's live poker tho, so the exploit play should take precedence.
    Thanked by 2neutron212 Niklius
  • kaboojiekaboojie Posts: 518Subscriber
    FWIW, if we had AA or KK here, I think we have a great spot for an overbet. V's range is capped to one pair or less based on his river check. An overbet of say 500 will look polarized as nuts or air. (either you have a Q or you don't) The right V will be very tempted to call with an under pair or J because if you really had a Q, wouldn't you want to value bet smaller?

    I remember Bart referring to this I believe in a podcast. It was called merged over betting if I'm not mistaken.

    I remember you were asking about over betting a while ago @ds2uared I think is a good spot to consider it.
    Thanked by 1Baggio95
  • fishcakefishcake Posts: 1,002Subscriber
    No need to bet so large on flop. River is good.
  • NikliusNiklius Posts: 18Subscriber
    kaboojie wrote: »
    In a true GTO sense, you should prob check back the river, as you are blocking the worse part of V's flop calling range (fds)
    It's live poker tho, so the exploit play should take precedence.

    I think this is right. I don't understand the exploit though. It's live 2/5 and we have seen V make light calls. I think the exploitable thing to do is check back at a higher frequency than GTO give this info.

    Either way, I check back river.
  • SuperflySuperfly Posts: 591Subscriber
    edited November 2019
    This is a good, confusing hand that is fun to try and analyze. My thoughts are below, but I’m not super confident I’ve come to the right conclusions.

    I think we should cbet the flop, 50% pot:
    - we have a nut and range advantage.
    - we would cbet with AA, KK (and possibly even sets?) since the board is very wet.
    - We block V from having good FDs
    - We have little showdown value but great draw equity to the nuts.

    That said, it’s very likely that V did get a piece of this board in the form of a pair and/or SD. So I think we should expect to get called and to have to multi-barrel to win.

    We should continue to bet turn, about 2/3 pot. - - Q on turn is good for us since it makes it less likely V has top pair.
    - Our nut advantage gives us a decent shot at getting V off second pair if we stay aggressive
    - we still have outs to the nuts as a fallback.

    River: no use stopping now. Jam with pot-sized bet. Overbet would be better, but I think $750 pot-sized shove is ok.

    Ok, there it is. Blast away... I can take it.

    @robfarha, would appreciate your comments here. I’m channeling what I think I learned in your cbet and barreling videos, but of course could be way off. Don’t be gentle.

    @robfarhareal
    @RobFarhaReal
    @RobFarha
  • kaboojiekaboojie Posts: 518Subscriber
    Niklius wrote: »
    I think this is right. I don't understand the exploit though. It's live 2/5 and we have seen V make light calls. I think the exploitable thing to do is check back at a higher frequency than GTO give this info.

    Either way, I check back river.

    Fair enough. I think it’s a population exploit more than anything. Once he checks the river, he has a very capped range. Most recs (from my experience anyways) will tend to fold an under pair here facing pressure.
  • FuzzypupFuzzypup Posts: 2,575Subscriber
    V hand range

    AK (1) combo of some random XC float
    QQ/JJ (4) slowplaying check river.
    KK (3) I give 3 because you 3b an UTG raiser.

    TT/99 (6)
    AJs (2)

    Not even tossing in hands like ATs or other Ace hands you beat because this is about betting vs his range that beats you but will fold to a bet.

    You are basically obligated to bluff because you are losing almost always. Betting here an appropriate amount is a less -EV play than not betting. Theory of Poker.

    Also look at your hand. Can you have AA/KK/QQ/JJ? Reverse the combos
    Say he had AJ.... You have 13 combos that beat him. 12 AKs that missed if you bet all of them 100% of the time... which you wouldn't. You would bet probably 4 of those combos.

    So work the math.

    A $200 bet is a good bluff size. He isn't folding KK, QQ, JJ of course (7) but might fold AJ and should fold TT/99 total (8) He only has to fold 1/3rd of the time for it to be +EV or less -EV than checking.

    If you held TT you are checking back because his range is now different. 6 combos of TT make a difference.

    The only thing you have to weigh in here as a modifier is due to him being on tilt, your history of a LAG image, and his tendency to call.

    This is a pretty easy hand and you should know how to figure this out if you are playing 2/5 deep.
  • JredAJredA Posts: 100Subscriber
    AK is obviously a hand that is in my range played this way (bet flop, check turn, bet river) and bluffing with all of my AK combos would be over doing it IMO. Theoretically speaking, should we be checking back river with our heart combos since we are blocking villains flush draw combos which would be more likely to fold to a river bet?

    In addition to that, I agree with some that 3 streets with some AK combos is a good line against the right villains, but I think AK (w/ out hearts) would make for better combo's to do so.
    Villain snapped called me w/ J9o. This is the first time I have seen villain play a range this wide in a spot like this so I was very confused. Not sure if he was tilted or plays this wide with regularity. Results aside, its a spot that I want to make sure I using the correct frequencies of bluffing/barreling.
  • SuperflySuperfly Posts: 591Subscriber
    I discount all AA, most KK and even some QQ from Vs range because he just called our 3bet pre. Once he checks back the Q on the turn on a SD/FD heavy board, I discount most QX too. Same for flopped sets. So I think it comes down to how likely is it we can get him off of Jx and some SDs.

    JredA you say he is tilted and calling down light, so maybe trying to triple barrel here is not such a good idea. But is he really willing to get stacked for a third time with second pair? Guess you have to be there to make that call.

    I agree that on the one hand it’s good to unblock the FD. But on the other hand I love having the equity of being able to hit the nut FD if V gets sticky. Having that equity to fall back on is what makes this a good multi-barrel bluff candidate imo.

    Interesting hand! Thx for sharing.
  • FriendlyFishFriendlyFish Posts: 123Member
    If i played this hand i would check back a lot on this flop. I’ll check river as played since villain is sticky. Never going for a bet bet bet line on this run out
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