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Why I am not on Discord

As many of you know I have had the worst 2 years in poker in my career. It seemed like I have been in an endless cycle of never having any hands, never getting value from hands I do get, and my value hands never holding up. I am sure that many of you just assume I am just on tilt and that it really hasn't been that bad. I can assure you it has. Statistically my two year run bad is not even slightly out of significance. I don't play 40 hrs a week and since I have really been running badly I even took a month off. so the number of hands I am seeing is just not that many and previously I know the math for the long run is in the 10s of 1000s of hands if not in the 100s of 1000s of hands. This is basically years of playing live.

So that out of the way I felt it necessary to just disengage since I basically didn't like whining on my tilt thread, nor do I think it was that healthy since I think it feed my emotions of how wrong it was that I was just endlessly losing money even though I was playing the best I could.

NOTE: for god's sake please don't say bluff more! I get that so much , but it just laughable. Sure I bluff when the board is right, sure I bluff when I basically don't have to make a kamikaze all in bluff. That said when the board pairs top pair that isn't always the best spot, or the river is basically every card in my villains range, or yet again that nasty fourth flush card comes in. Sure I can rep some of those but not when you are constantly playing from oop as pfr. and yes I do play tight from that position. in fact much tighter than I used to. but having alot of AQ+ and never flopping anything is tough to make any money.

So I felt I needed to just step back not play for a while and only play when I had an excuse to play and only on Saturdays. So I am concentrating a lot more on my tourney game and played the last two Saturdays during Hustler's current tourney series. I am actually enjoying tournies and over the past couple of years I have realized they are much more complicated then I had originally thought and there is value in playing them. Even if it's just to get my poker fix in for a few hours!

thanks for listening


  • NikliusNiklius Posts: 18Subscriber
    edited October 2019
    Though hard to hear at first, I think your message is ultimately positive. Especially as a player who is recreational and plays for fun, not for a living, it's amazing to hear that slight tweaks can bring enjoyment back to your game. I.e. - tournaments vs. cash. Tournaments are infinitely complex because you add ever-changing stack sizes and ICM into the mix...lord, it's beyond me.
    so the number of hands I am seeing is just not that many and previously I know the math for the long run is in the 10s of 1000s of hands if not in the 100s of 1000s of hands. This is basically years of playing live.

    I don't want to believe this only because I don't want to find myself in a similar position. I'm not that familiar with variance and RoR math because I do not depend on my bankroll to sustain life. I do have a question that maybe you can answer since you seem to be more qualified.

    Just because it is possible to go on a 10,000 hand downswing or greater, what is the actual likelihood of that happening?

    If you don't know the answer to this question - can you point me in the right direction to learning?

    Thanks - and good luck with your new tournament addiction!
  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,090Subscriber

    I honestly don't know the answer to how likely you could have a similar situation happen. I do know that the better your win rate is the less likely it is to occur. This is simply because as you are a better and better player you can squeeze out more and more expected value from each hand. all of that said not even Bart or any other Pro on this website would have been able to make much money given what I have experienced. And I am being 100% honest on my feelings there.

    One of the most tilting things to experience was listening to Bart's podcast and hearing him complain about not having flopped a set in a week or two. OMG. this isn't a complaint thread for him, I wish he would flop a set vs every fish, but not flopping a set vs a pfr for months and months and then when you do they don't have anything and you win a tiny amount. Or worse being at his table when a fish just punts a 2k stack to him when Bart turns the nuts. I cannot tell you how long it has been since that happened to me.

    this past Saturday I did play cash after busting the tourney and I stayed until 6 am because the game was really good. Only after 4:30 did i finally hit some hands that got paid off. One hand I turned a FH vs a fish who likely had trips and I busted him right after he trippled up for a 1k pot. Then about an hour later I FINALLY flopped a set vs a player who 3! me pre and almost stacked him for a 3k pot. I believe that is the first time this year I have done that in a cash game.

    Just a few weeks ago i had finally got it in pre AA vs KK to lose to his turned set.. that was the stuff I had been dealing with. Win a few hundred just trying to grind out a few pots or losing over 1000 every session because i basically never connected to the flop.

    So the moral of the story is it can happen to anyone at anytime. I now know EXACTLY why a fish or even a pro quit when this has happened to them. But I was only able to quit for 28 days. but I am not rushing back to play, I am just going to chill and wait for the next tourney to play...

  • NikliusNiklius Posts: 18Subscriber
    I really think you nailed it when you said that when you implied it hasn't been over that many hands so your bad run is not statistically significant. I don't doubt that the bad run and variance is unbelievable frustrating, even when you understand the math. However, the start of each new hand stands on its own and really should not be viewed as part of a sample in order to classify as run good or run bad. I think it's pointless.

    I have small sample sizes and have swung over all of them, but right now I am getting a lot of live volume (50+ hours a week) and am not focused on flopping sets, full houses, flushes or any of that. I get 1-3 hands per session that I have questions on, write them down and go from there. I'm certainly not keeping track of good vs. bad hands. I am only tracking session results (winnings vs. losses) because it is a mandatory part of taking the game seriously...you do have to track something.

    It can happen to anyone at anytime, well said.
    Thanked by 1Steveo76
  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,090Subscriber
    one thing to note I have still played around 2000 hrs in the last two years so not like it was a couple hundred. So this is months and months of what would be a full time schedule.
  • fishcakefishcake Posts: 1,002Subscriber
    I've had 2 separate huge downswings. I get what Wendy is going through. Most everyone else runs amazing or even. Live poker variance is beyond many people's minds. Only good online players have actually believed some of the shit I've told them. Take care Wendy.
    Thanked by 1Thehammah
  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,090Subscriber
    my session tonight typical of the kind I have had the last two years

    first hand i raise AK three players in pot. flop top two get it in vs short stack on turn he rivers a flush

    next hand I raise A3dd. flop nut flush vs two other players I cbet they both fold.

    flop pair and flush draw whiff and lose to top pair

    players raises 25 utg i am only caller w 56ss in sb flop 934dd. i ch he bets 25 I call. 3h turn puts bd heart draw i ch he bets 25. i call river 2s i bet 120 he snaps has AdAh

    call utg raiser w QJ hh bb also calls flop Qxxsss. he bets 35 I call. Turn jc. utg bet 125 i raise to 275 bb goes all in utg calls. I tank but not getting right price. bb has set of 3 and utg has 89ss. i never get value from my hands and they are always second best. I am literally the most unlucky player ever

    fish limps I raise to 25 w AA two players call. flop A25r. chs around turn 5. bb ch I bet 40 both fold. yet again I make a big hand and make nothing

    one limper I have JT suited raise to 25 two callers. flop 789 ch to me I bet 40 they both fold.

    fish raises utg to 25 i call 97hh. flop comes AKJ all hearts. fish bets 20 I raise to 65 he calls. turn 9c he ch I bet 145 he calls river 4. he ships I call so frustrated he has KxQh

    my previous session

    guy 3! me three times I call w AQ flop ace he has JJ flops set I call off

    guy limps KK late pos I flop nut flush from sb calling straddle he flops set river fourth diamond keeping me from stacking him

    guy raises to 45 one caller. I have KK in sb I raise to 175 he calls has 200 and change left flop Axx i ch he goes all in i fold he shows 76ss

    whatever they need to win or me to make the min

    i overcall fish who had KK earlier fron btn sb raises to 25 we go 3 ways. ch flop I hit gutter turn get both to call river I have to chop w sb

    It wouldnt be all that bad except people you thought were your friends never call to say hi guess the rumors of epic bad run is transmittable are true.

    this year ai have had two winning months the rest losing some losing big. I need at least one big jackpot to only get me to even

    by fat my worst year in poker andi it's not even close. with tourney losses and expenses to wsop I am around -20k for the year. quite the turnaround from winning over 60 in 2017.

    but the worst part is not having what I thought were my friend check in every once i a while. guess no one was a real good friend then. I get it. only when the "crew wins" are they accepted. now that I am a losing player I dont get the invite.
  • TerpHimselfTerpHimself Posts: 329Subscriber
    Hey Wendy, I know this is BBV, and I'm also not a NL coach on this site, but I'm seeing some things in these HH's that might be playing in to your downswing a bit. If you want feedback, let me know.

    I'm glad you're taking things slowly as you return to play. Having been through some brutal swings, one of them this year, sometimes I don't want to talk poker at all, and sometimes I just need to vent. I think this is a good community, and if you don't want to talk poker or get feedback, there are still plenty of ways to connect with folks and stay "in the game" even when you're not playing.
    Thanked by 1StreetFighter
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