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$2/$5 Experimenting With Overbets

I don't overbet often. And experimenting with overbets with the essential nuts is easier. In any case...

In two previous hands with villain, he has shown himself to be the utmost station that exists. Hero lost a lot in absolute, but the actual minimum possible in each situation. (Maybe $700 total in last orbit to villain specifically).

On to the Hand:

$800 eff.
Villain calls Utg2. Mp2 calls. Hero raises to $35 otb w/ A K. Only villain calls.
$75. Flop K J 8. V checks. Hero bets $35. V calls.
$145. Turn 5. V checks. Hero bets $70. V calls.
$285. River K. V checks. Hero bets $350.

Thoughts?
Tagged:

Comments

  • ds2uaredds2uared Posts: 464Subscriber
    edited October 2019
    Do NOT read this until you comment on the hand.
    V calls. Shows JJ. That's right. V calls and shows Jack-jack. [email protected]& fucking [email protected]&*. The ultimate calling station.
  • FetterfoolFetterfool Posts: 19Subscriber
    Even stations have a number they'll fold to. I think you're only getting called by a king here. Bet around 200 and any Jack will likely look you up from a stationy guy.
  • McLovinMcLovin Posts: 50Subscriber
    I love this bet-size a lot on river when we have A in our hand. I will go slightly big on river around 400 if i decide to OB this spot just considering the nutted combos we will have on this board.

    Just for a pure exploit and considering the V tendencies we can go around 200ish on river to get called by any K and decent J.
  • ClockClock Posts: 1,133Subscriber
    edited October 2019
    I like a larger bet on the turn and smaller bet on river on this board.
    There're many draws especially with BDFD that V will not be folding.
    On river, no FD bricked, so I'd prefer to just give him a better price to call.
    That sizing I believe you're only getting called by Kx which are not a lot left in his limp/calling range....
  • kaboojiekaboojie Posts: 518Subscriber
    I dont know or do a lot of overbetting myself. I've tried it a couple times on the "classic" over bet boards (3 flush cards and we have nut blocker, double paired boards) but that's about it.

    Like the others have said, I think I would go a 2/3 sizing knowing this V will call pretty light. This scenario is printing for you. The overbet is a bit of a risky (risky in the sense you could push a station off his marginal holding where he would def call a smaller bet)

    Not a lot of insight I know, but that's all I got for now on this subject.
    Thanked by 1CycleV
  • CycleVCycleV Posts: 1,196Subscriber
    If the guy's a station, any two cards higher than an 8 give him at least either a pair or a gutter. Def going bigger otf and ott.

    On the river, in theory I want to incorporate more overbets into my range, but here, it just seems like a classic 2/3 psb spot.
  • PokerShamanPokerShaman Posts: 107Subscriber
    I want to bet more on the turn.

    I note that we've got the club ace, so that blocks a bunch of potential backdoor flush draws that have bricked.

    Do we think the villain is a thinking player? Betting this big on the river is polarizing, and it may paradoxically induce a bluff-catch in a way that betting smaller might not. But they have to understand polarizing bets for this to work.
  • PokerShamanPokerShaman Posts: 107Subscriber
    I read the spoiler. This villain is not going to understand polarizing bets.
  • SuperflySuperfly Posts: 591Subscriber
    I think it’s important to define what type of station this is:

    Does he just call with even strong hands? In this case I like the overbet as he probably has a K. He might have KJ, but so be it.

    Does he call light with second pair, etc? In this case I think you should bet smaller for value.

    My pref would be to not post the reveal right away, even if it is hidden. I was afraid to read other comments before posting for fear they commented on the results. I think it more useful if later posters can respond to earlier posts, rather than just repeat the same info.
    Thanked by 2ds2uared CycleV
  • GarlandGarland Posts: 518Subscriber
    I'd prefer a slightly larger sizing on the flop and turn, $40-$45, then $85-$90. Whatever calling range he had for the amounts you bet, I think will still call slightly more.

    In order for an over-sized bet to work for him to call light, you'd need some dynamic with villain, for example, you know this guy is itching to bluff catch you. Classic villains will have a pain tolerance with marginal hands to call you, so I think the over-bet will get folds from everything but a K.

    As played, I'd prefer $200, or about 2/3 PSB on the river.
  • FuzzypupFuzzypup Posts: 2,575Subscriber
    #1 bomb the flop he has a hand is fairly polarized on the flop where the size bet difference doesn't matter. He will call or he will fold.
    #2 If you bombed the flop now you can bet large OTT without it looking large like 2/3p. Very likely his hand will get polarized again. Either he will have a set that will XRAI and you can safely fold, he has a GS which likely folds, or he has a SD/TPGK which calls
    #3 If you did #1 and #2 you now have a PSB left and the pot is too big to fold in his eyes. But you need to ask yourself. How often does he have a King here since 3 are out? You would combine his range and his behavior to determine the right play. I'd say you shove less often then bet smaller.

    If any street you want to overbet the pot I'd do it on the flop because of his polarization.

    If he by chance has a hand like JJ, KJ, 88 shit happens. That is rare and more often then not he will have a weaker hand.

    But you need to analyze the river situation. That 3rd king changes a lot of his range. I don't want to work it out.
  • ArenzanoArenzano Posts: 1,464Subscriber
    Not really sure what your river over bet is looking to accomplish. You don’t have the nuts and you don’t have a bluff, but you turn your trip Kx into an unnecessary bluff. Why do you want the opponent to fold worse hands and isolate yourself against better hands?
  • ds2uaredds2uared Posts: 464Subscriber
    Arenzano wrote: »
    Not really sure what your river over bet is looking to accomplish.
    It's actually why I used "experimenting" in the post title.
    Arenzano wrote: »
    You don’t have the nuts and you don’t have a bluff, but you turn your trip Kx into an unnecessary bluff. Why do you want the opponent to fold worse hands and isolate yourself against better hands?
    I think he's an absurd calling station. Perhaps a more accurate question would be: Is this traditionally a good spot to overbet? Is this a GTO spot to overbet? Is this deviation from GTO, an exploitability, more +EV?

  • ChaseChase Posts: 182Subscriber
    Arenzano wrote: »
    Not really sure what your river over bet is looking to accomplish. You don’t have the nuts and you don’t have a bluff, but you turn your trip Kx into an unnecessary bluff. Why do you want the opponent to fold worse hands and isolate yourself against better hands?

    OP isn't turning his hand into a bluff with overbet sizing. He is repping KX+ or busted QTs/T9s/67s. In theory, one could choose to have only one bet size on this river that is an overbet and rep the above range. Alternatively, one could have two bet sizes, and the smaller size would be much smaller and include hands like AJ and AA for value and a few bluffs (or against this particular V maybe no bluffs).

    Since we know this particular V tends to make big calling errors, we should focus on how to get max value, which is going to be sizing to max our EV according to the basic formula ([bet size] x [chance opponent calls]) = EV. Exploitatively, since you think V makes big calling errors, size up on every st post and consider having very few bluffs in that range, with the best bluff candidates probably being Q T and Q T because you have no SD value, block some of his natural bluff-catchers, and unblock backdoor A X .
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