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$2/$5 Can Hero Fold?

Villain is super rec. Folded AJ on AQT5 board in $300 pot for $90.

$370 eff.
Villain straddles button. 7-handed. Hero raises utg A :s: Q to $35. Utg1 calls. V calls.

$98. Flop J 6 :s: 5. Hero bets $45. Fold. Call. (V took about 1 minute, stacked up a min raise and almost put it out there several times, then called).

$188. Turn Q :s:. Hero bets $100. V snaps all-in. Thoughts?
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Comments

  • LatvianMissileLatvianMissile Posts: 294Subscriber
    As nitty as it is, I’d probably fold. I know you’re getting 4-1 but does this dude ever have a bluff here?

    I’d also check flop.
  • CycleVCycleV Posts: 1,196Subscriber
    We need 25%. I can construct a theoretical range that gives us 25% and has some bluffs in the form of sd that picked up fd, and a couple of pairs that pick up the fd:

    Equity Win Tie
    MP2 27.92% 27.92% 0.00% AsQh
    MP3 72.08% 72.08% 0.00% 66-55, QJs, 65s, KsJs, JsTs, 9s8s, 8s7s, 5s4s

    The thing is, this just feels optimistic. Would he really contemplate raising otf with KJss, JTss, QJcc, 98ss, or 54ss? Esp given your description of him. Take those out and we have 11%. Seems like a clear fold.

    For kicks I changed your ace to a non spade, so we could add in A5ss and AJss. Still can't get to 25%.
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