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3-bet pot. Flop open-ender/pair/backdoor FD...am I always going for it?

$510 effective. 9 handed 2/3 w/ mandatory UTG 5 straddle. 5 to bring in. Game is pretty decent action and we are seeing the flop with every deal. Maybe 75% of hands are raised pre-flop, few 3-bets, and if it is, we know what it means (AAxx).

Main villain in SB is tightish and capable of making laydowns (~$800). Earlier in session, he lost a big pot (>100BB) getting married to top two on non-flush/non-straight board against other villain below who bet-3-bet the flop big (he had middle set).

Villain on Button (~$1200) is really loose and aggressive and talkative. He's playing like 80% of hands raising a majority of them pre. Calls all 3-bets regardless of stack depth of opponent. Aggressive with his draws and is sticky.

I have a tight aggressive image, playing far fewer hands than the table norm sticking to strategy of only playing 4 cards that work together.

Preflop ($10 - 9 players). There is a straddle, and I open to $20 ($510 eff) with K J J :s: T :s: from HJ, Button calls, SB re-pots to $90, I call, button calls.

Flop ($270 - 3 players). Q T 5. SB tanks for 30-45 seconds, and I'm pretty sure he hates this flop, as this hits my raise-call range pretty hard. Finally, he leads for $125, I ??? My thought process is I have an open-ender and a pair, but 2 of my outs are probably in SB's hand. But I can represent a set or a top two run down? As is, I have the bottom of my range to consider continuing. What would you do given my options?

Comments

  • ChaseSpellChaseSpell Posts: 183Subscriber
    edited December 2019
    Preflop seems good. You have 39% vs SB's AAXX, and 33.5% vs SB's AAXX (42%) & BTN's (11%-80%PPT) (24%). If the SB's 3b! is almost always AAXX, you might fold this hand if it was badugi. The equities drop to 31% and 26% respectively.

    On this flop we have too much equity to fold given that price. With SPR this low our break-even equity is only 38%. We are committed, and thus we should just jam. SPR is so low we should probably jam even facing a pot sized cbet.
    Thanked by 1crux
  • GarlandGarland Posts: 525Subscriber
    Thanks for your response, Chase. Only took 3 months for someone to comment ;)
    I move in, button folds, SB tank-calls after about a minute. He has A A :s: J 3. Turn was 5, River was T and I suck out.
  • Stovall13@hotmail.com[email protected] Posts: 798Subscriber
    Preflop - You could also fold to the 3bet here since there will be just over 1 PSB left OTF knowing that the SB's range is AA heavy. Deeper it becomes a more standard call in position.


    Flop - You have flopped too much equity to fold, so the only question is whether to call or ship. The argument for shipping is there might be some fold equity and you could clean-up your "draws" to a K, J, and or T by forcing out the button who might call a smaller bet. The argument for calling is that you think there is minimal/no fold equity versus aces and you are a current underdog to them, plus you may get to see a free river if turn gets checked through.


    I think it is a really close decision and would base my decision on whether I thought SB would occasionally fold aces.

  • ChristopherSigmanChristopherSigman Posts: 1,147Subscriber
    Preflop - You could also fold to the 3bet here since there will be just over 1 PSB left OTF knowing that the SB's range is AA heavy. Deeper it becomes a more standard call in position.


    Flop - You have flopped too much equity to fold, so the only question is whether to call or ship. The argument for shipping is there might be some fold equity and you could clean-up your "draws" to a K, J, and or T by forcing out the button who might call a smaller bet. The argument for calling is that you think there is minimal/no fold equity versus aces and you are a current underdog to them, plus you may get to see a free river if turn gets checked through.


    I think it is a really close decision and would base my decision on whether I thought SB would occasionally fold aces.

    Folding KJJTds is WAY TOO TIGHT to fold pre-flop in this spot! Even with the stacks being somewhat shallower, it's still a call all day. Your implied odds are way too high to fold pre. Also, if you want to have greater stack depth in order to play more hands profitably, you can a) add on; or b) make your open to $15. Then when you get called by button, SB pops it to $70 instead of $90 giving you deeper stacks post flop.

    OTF I'm always jamming your hand. The only hands you really hate being up against are AQQx, AKQJ, KQJT, and QJT9. You block most of those with your KJJ. Also, if you get cute and just call the flop, you could be in a position to fold out your equity on the flop when the turn comes a 5 like it did. Shipping flop allows you to realize all of your equity.
    Thanked by 1crux
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