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Bet sizing: turned nut straight against LAG

1/2 PLO Encore 8 handed

H (button $1200 (effective stack)), has been playing tight quite nitty PLO for first hour at the table, OMC image.

V (HJ $1800), fairly solid LAG, not foolish or maniacal, will definitely bluff in spots, but doesn't often make bad calls and will fold when he thinks he's beat without a good draw.

Two limpers early in hand, V makes it $20 in HJ
H calls on the button with 5c,6d,7d,8c, limpers call, 4 ways

Flop ($80) Ac, 8d, 4s, x x V bets $80, H calls, others fold

Turn($240) 7c, V bets $100, Hero???

I think there is a strong likelihood he has a set of aces. I have $1000 left after I credit the call for $100 on the turn, so should I pot ($540) and blow him off the pot, or bet half pot or less (say $250) and try to keep him in? He's already shown weakness by betting small on the turn. Or should I just call, risk the board pairing or higher flush coming in, and induce a bluff OTR?



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Comments

  • GarlandGarland Posts: 518Subscriber
    edited September 2019
    Interested in other opinions. I think your hand would be a good candidate to raise the flop/call off with your pair + wrap + 2 backdoor flush draws. He's not going to go over the top unless he has AAxx exactly as you could conceivably call pre with dry AA pre. As played, is he really going to only bet $100 on turn with AAxx? It smells more like A8xx/A4xx. I'd just raise to $250 and try to keep him in with a set/2 pair/flush draw.
    Thanked by 1Jonesey
  • JoneseyJonesey Posts: 151Subscriber
    edited September 2019
    So I raised pot, he tanked and made a crying fold but didn’t show. I really think i missed a lot of value by either not raising OTF and raising too big OTT. I think you’re read of top two is better than my read after your explanation. I’m definitely not raising big draws enough which I think is how I get value rather than betting when I hit.
  • PhishmanPhishman Posts: 1Subscriber
    Guys Remember hand reading basics. This guy raised pre and bet pot into 4 players on dry flop. This is a value bet all day by him. There are no semi bluffs on this board which is the kind of bluff most players make in plo. Raising him would be horrible as he likely has AA or A8. Just flat and raise turn 3 or 4x. Raising on flop and getting raised and blown off our equity would be a disaster
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