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Does the Math Support Calling an All-In from a Short Stack with a Pair&Flush Draw

Jax1234Jax1234 Posts: 67Member
edited June 2019 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
1/2 Golden Nugget. Six handed. I am in the cutoff with $500. The villain is an attractive female who is incredibly tilted with $143 left. She is in the hijack position. She was an incredibly passive player who struck me as somewhat of a space cadet.

In any event, in this hand I have five six . UTG folds. Villain limps for $2. I raise to $15. Button and the blinds fold. She calls.

Flop is queen ten six She checks. I bet $20. She hesitates before going all-in for her final $128.

I ended up calling. Even though I did not think I was ahead of her at this point, I figured that she only had a better one pair hand and did not have two-pair or a set as she was the type of player who would lead into the pre-flop raiser with a nutted hand on a wet board with a ton of available draws. I thought it was possible for her to have king/jack, jack/nine given that she limped.

My question is again about the math. Does the math support a call in this instance? I have to call $108 to win $178.


  • joshofalltradesjoshofalltrades Posts: 134Subscriber
    $108/($178+$108) = .3776, so you need about 38% equity to be profitable. If you can really rule out 2-pair and sets, it's a no-brainer, as you are roughly 50% against a flush draw and 2 overs and 44%-50% against a single-paired hand. Even against the sets you have about 25%, so it shouldn't drag the average down too far.

    There are also some intangibles that come into play as well. There is value in having a big stack in a capped game, both for image reasons and because it enables you to win more money from players who can't fold a second-best hand. There is also the tilt factor. You mention that she is already on tilt, will she rebuy and continue to tilt if she gets it in good and you suck out on her? That's worth something, too. All in all I think it's a pretty clear call.
  • PiggyPiggy Posts: 172Subscriber
    Could she be doing this with the naked NFD? If so, then it feels like a fist-pump GII (I didn't run the numbers) if we think she doesn't have 2p+.
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