$50 max BI (25c-50c) full ring PLO on WSOP.com is down to 5 handed at midnight. No maniacs or fish at the table. I had a nice run and am at $175. V1 UTG HJ ($65) opens $1.75, I call CO w Kh, Qs, Th, 8c. Folds to BB ($60) who 3bets to $7.25. HJ 4 bets pot to $23.75 (always AA). Despite not closing the action I call given I have several ways to crack AA. BB calls, so 3 ways to flop ($69 after rake). Given how short the 2 Vs are, this seems like 2 clear calls PF (the initial raise and then cold calling the 4 bet knowing BB would at least call as well).
Note I considered the risk that the BB would 5 bet shove when I overcalled the 4 bet PF. Had he pushed the HJ clearly calls, so last to act I would have needed to call another $40 for a total pot of 190-8 rake = $182, which requires 22% equity to call. I believe I have that much equity vs. AA and the BB's strong but wider range (a lot of smooth rundowns, double paired/double suited, etc.).
Question 1: Is my analysis correct on calling the 4 bet, committing me to call a push 5 bet from the BB? In other words does my had have more than 22% equity (a strong broadway rundown plus the 2nd NFD) vs. the hand ranges I described?
Flop = 3J7r (no H). As expected, BB pushes his last $35 and HJ pushes his last $40 so pot now $144. With the J as my Broadway pivot card I see nut potential and get (too) excited. Since the math here = the AIPF math, I still need 22% to call. I have a gutter 9 to the nuts and several other ways to get the nuts by the river so getting almost 5-1 it seemed a no brainer call during the game.
However, in analyzing it after the fact, I think I had a clear fold after the flop. The immediate gutter to the nuts could be rivered by whatever BDFD will become available on any turn, and if I miss the 9 on the turn I will need runner-runner B/Way cards to hit the nut Str8 (assuming I dodge the BDFD). Remembering HJ likely has AA, on the turn I had 4 9's to the current nuts, plus 2 (NOT 4) Aces and 3 each of K,Q,T that would leave me with a 11 card wrap to the nuts on the river. Thus on the turn I have 15 cards/45 = 33%. If I hit one of those 15 cards on the turn, then I probably lose 5 outs to whatever BDFD hits on the turn, leaving me only 10/44 = 23% on the river. 33% * 23% =7.5%, so I had nowhere near the odds needed to call the flop. Despite what looked like a clear call getting almost 5 to 1 it looks like I needed over 13-1.
Q2: Is my math here accurate or am I forgetting something?
Q3: If the math is right, that means I should call AIPF but I need to fold to the flop bets as I only have a gutter to the nuts or runner-runner A,K,Q,T for B/Way (which could end up 2nd best if we go R-R BDFD). So I should call the PF action even if its AI, but save $40 (almost 1 full buy-in) by folding after the flop?
Thanks for the help as I try to develop the skill of doing these essential calculations quickly AND ACCURATELY during a live hand.