I'm going to give a specific situation and attempt to describe a triple barrel betting range that would be MAX EV against a typical rec Villain. Please share your thoughts of these ranges and sizings. Thanks!
$2/$3 casino game, $300 effective stacks, 9-handed
H opens $15 UTG with Ki’s preflop range for UTG open (77+, 98s+, A5s, ATs+, KTs+, QTs+, AKo, AQo).
V1 (a loose rec) flats in the CO, BTN folds, the blinds are both regs and they both call.
(4 players - $60) A♣ K♣ 8♦
Both blinds check, H $50 with the following range:
Total 36 “value” combos:
Sets 9 combos
Two pair 9 combos
AQs and AJs 6 combos
AQo 12 combos
Total “Bluffs” 9 combos
All possible FD:
T♦ 9♦ (not GS but can turn OE, gutters, as well as BDFD)
So “value” to “bluff” ratio is 36-9 or 4-1, and H is betting with 45/97 combos or ~46% frequency. H has a big range advantage and nut advantage on this flop, so betting at a high frequency seems reasonable, but on the other hand the pot is not heads-up but 4-handed, so 46% frequency is likely better than betting at a much higher frequency.
Is the ratio of 4 "value" to 1 "bluff" too few "bluffs" considering H's significant range advantage and nut advantage on this flop? Should I add additional "bluffs" into this c-betting range?
V1 quickly calls, and both blinds fold,
(2 players - $160) A♣ K♣ 8♦ 7♥
H $75 with range of:
All the "value" hands that were bet on the flop (36 combos),
And the 4 best "bluff" combos (straight-draws that unblock clubs and block some of V’s AX hands):
It seems like all the hands above make for better "bluffs" than the front-door-FD hands because when H has the FD that blocks V from having some FD, so then V's range is AX heavy, and since V is a rec he probably isn't going to fold an ace.
V1 calls pretty quickly,
($310) A♣ K♣ 8♦ 7♥ Q♥
H betting for value (28-31 combos):
Sets 9 combos
Top-two-pair 9 combo
AQ 9 combo
AJs 3 combos (Should we go for thin value with this hand against this V? V is a rec so perhaps we can get value from AT,A9,A6-A2 and maybe even Q♣ X♣ )
How many bluffs should H have?
If H bet $50 on flop, $75 on turn, and $160 all-in otr into $310 pot then V is getting $470-$160 odds or just under 3-1, so H would need to have roughly 1 bluff for every 3 value hands to make V indifferent to calling. H is betting 28-31 hands for value so that’s means about 10 bluffs. H only has 3 obvious potential bluff candidates on this river. So H can't possibly have enough bluffs to reach the indifference point unless additional "bluffs" are included in H's betting range on earlier streets. H could bet the turn with the front-door-FD hands, so then H arrives at the river with an additional 4 (J♣ T♣ makes a straight) possible bluffs, but those hands don't seem like good triple barrel candidates in the first place because they tilt V's range toward AX.
H's obvious potential bluff candidates are: Q♦ J♦ , Q♦ T♦ , & (to a slightly lesser extent) T♦ 9♦
These hands unblock clubs and block the V’s best AX call-downs.
It seems like those hands make for such profitable bluffs that we should jam with all those hands even against an opponent who might make calling errors. What do you think?