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Can this play work enough to be profitable?

SonnySonny Posts: 390Subscriber
edited April 2019 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
$2/5 $500 Cap In Las Vegas

Hero opens A Q to $20 UTG+1 ~$525 deep
Hijack calls ~$250
BB calls ~$1.5k (Main opponent)

Flop
10 7 2

BB donks $40 into $60
Hero calls
Hijack folds

So calling here is a bit lite, but we have two overs and some backdoors with ambitious plans to possibly bluff the opponent off a later street.
Most of the time when the BB donks he probably has a 10 or a draw, and maybe a hand like JJ.
I feel like our overs are live, I dont think he donks A10, and a lot of cards can come where we can put a lot of pressure on. If he is betting a draw we actually have the best hand, but I dont think counting on that is a great idea. Its possible we still could have AA, KK, etc with or without a Heart, and just be calling to let the BB hang himself, granted we will sometimes raise those hands when we get donked into, but sometimes I think just calling is fine, if we do have the backdoor draw. I can easily have AK-AJ, and KQ of Hearts here and just call to realize my equity. On the other hand some players would be raising the nut draw on the flop. I personally probably wouldn't but I know some players would.

Turn
4

BB leads $80 into $160
We call

So we pick up the backdoor nut flush draw. Once the flush comes in on the turn and the BB leads with us holding the nut blocker, I dont know if this would be a good time to raise as a semi bluff or not. If we did have the made nut flush, I'm not sure most players are raising. They might just call. I think most good players are raising for value, but I think a lot of the player pool is just calling and slow playing the hand.
I decided to call do to the fact that calling allows me to realize my equity without possibly facing a shove, and it sets up a somewhat believeable line that I've made my hand.

River
3

BB bets $160 into $320...

So what do we do?

I had figured since I'm holding the Ace of Hearts that he was going to check the River. Then we can bet a healthy amount and get a fold holding the nut blocker. I did not expect him to bet again on the river. It puts us in a though spot. Now with him betting $160, we only have $225 more we can raise. I wouldnt have even called the flop if I didnt think my opponent wasn't capable of folding at some point. So I think he can make some folds. On the one hand $225 more is a decent sized bet for this game, however in relation to the size of the pot its not a ton. Something else that was brought up by a friend is that if we do shove, we are repping a very small range here, basiclly the nut flush or nothing, and since I opened UTG+1 my nut flush combos are a very small range.

So should we abort mission or go with the plan of repping the nuts?

Comments

  • CycleVCycleV Posts: 1,196Subscriber
    I've found myself in a number of spots exactly like this lately, playing it basically the same as well, and the conclusion I've drawn for my own game is that it's not an aggressive enough line. At some point I/we need to win the hand without making the best hand, and that's going to involve a raise. As you pointed out, you might not be deep enough on the river, so I think if we're going to continue postflop, we have to go back a street (or two) and find a spot to put in a raise.

    I think when Bart talks about spots like this, 1-2 overs and both backdoor draws, we're usually the aggressor. Here, V flipped the script by leading out, and combined with the shallow spr, I'm not sure that we have a clear path towards taking this away from him, unless it's bomb flop/shove turn, and tbh I don't like that much at all.

    Against his straight value with a couple of good FD (and one oesd) we're kinda crushed.

    Equity Win Tie
    MP2 18.51% 18.51% 0.00% AhQd
    MP3 81.49% 81.49% 0.00% TT, 77, 22, KhQh, KhJh, 9d8d, 9h8h, ATo

    So we'd need to hope he's leading with a bunch of hands like JTs or 87s that isn't hearts, and that he'll fold that to a flop or turn raise. But how often is he leading into 2 players with those hands? And if we add in hands like 65hh, well he just ain't gonna fold once the flush comes in.

    If we were 200BB deep then we have more room to play around, but we also should remember that we are potentially squeezed otf with HJ left to act. Overall I think it's sad but it's ultimately a fold.
    Thanked by 1Sonny
  • mragemrage Posts: 30Subscriber
    I think this is spew. You still have the HJ to act behind you on the flop. If he had donked a little smaller, I guess vs certain opponents I can see raising to take control of the hand and barreling off on favorable turns. But here, he's made a significant bet into a multiway field. I'm just gonna let it go.
  • kaboojiekaboojie Posts: 518Subscriber
    If you’re going to make a move here, I think it has to be on the turn, and the only move I think will work is to jam. This is where we have max fe. We have a pretty sweet blocker and enough equity with nfd that I think this could be profitable against the right villain. When I say right villain, I would have to have read that V could fold a decent hand. If V is an unknown or the type that doesn’t like to fold, I think it would be too risky to try to push him off.

    AP - our stack is too shallow to try anything otr. I would just fold.
    Thanked by 2PokerShaman hustlin
  • SuperflySuperfly Posts: 606Subscriber
    BB range is very wide and board is relatively dry. His lead could very will be probe bet with TP middling kicker. As PFR we have range advantage and all overpairs. We also have nut flush blocker. Seems like an ok spot to check raise flop to me, even with HJ behind, who is also fairly wide and capped. I’d raise to $130.

    If HJ folds and BB calls, I’d look to continue on A, K, Q or heart turn. Very hard for Tx to call here. I would be more hesitant to try this line at higher stakes, but at 2-5 I think Vs are wide and weak enough for this to work a decent amount of the time.

    As played, it’s close, but getting 3:1 on turn with somewhere between 9-14 outs, I’d prob call and fold to bet on blank rivers. We’re not deep enough to bluff river.

    Not sure how I feel about bluffing heart turn with two overs. Once we just call flop, I feel like we eliminate most of our overpairs. So seems very polar and player dependent.
  • hustlinhustlin Posts: 366Subscriber
    as played. no, just not deep enough to shove here and be profitable and expect villain to fold here.
    villain just has too good odds and will be like what the hell Im gna call u. even with as a weak as top pair

    If you were to make a move ideally it would be the turn. great fold equity and u can rep the flush .
    Thanked by 1Sonny
  • SonnySonny Posts: 390Subscriber
    Thanks everyone for the input. I pretty much expexted the opinions to be what eveyone said... Lol

    In the end, I decided to go through with plan A and shoot the moon...

    He tanked for a few seconds before turning over 89 off and joked that he got cought. So, that was a releaf. Funny that I didnt even need to bluff, I could have just called and won... eh live poker lol I guess...

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