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Line check--Do I go for it on the river?

GarlandGarland Posts: 518Subscriber
Location: Lucky Chances in Colma, CA
Stakes: $3/$5 $1000 max
Effective stack: $390

Pre-Flop ($8): A weak loose passive UTG limps, MP limps, Hero !$30 with Q J in LJ. Folds to limpers who call:

Flop (3 players $98): K 6 5. Checks to me, I bet $40, only UTG calls.

Turn (2 players $178): A Check to me, I bet $100, UTG asks how much and then calls quickly.

River (2 players $378): 8. Check to me and I have $220 left. Do I go for it?

Comments

  • JredAJredA Posts: 100Subscriber
    On one hand the turn card was a great double barrel bluff opportunity. You have all the strong combos of hands like AK, AA, KK, and AQ in your range while villain most likely does not.

    On the other hand, your description of villain makes me think he is not even aware of what you may have and is solely focused on his holdings.

    I would expect to have heard from his strongest hands like 2 pair and sets on the turn a decent percentage of the time so this leaves single pair hands like Kx (unless of course the 8 gave him 2 pair on the river), missed flush draws (which you block pretty heavily). Villain could also have single pair hands that contain the Ah like Ah2h, Ah3h, Ah4h, Ah7h, Ah8h, Ah9h.

    If this villain is a weak passive calling station he may even have hands like 77,99,76,etc.

    My decision would ultimately come down to my read of villain and how wide his calling tendencies are. Against a competent opponent who is thinking about your range I think its a great triple barrel spot. But if this villain is calling with how that A turn card hits your range, he may not be folding much on this river.

    We are risking $220 into a pot of $378 so our bluff needs to work about 37% of the time. But are we getting this villain to fold his Kx hands here? There are several combos of K9-KQ that we may get folds out of that would make this a profitable bluff.

    If I think villain is super sticky and not folding many Kx here I am just checking back. You beat all missed flush draws that didn't pair up as the AhXx combos are probably not folding anyway. So a small percentage of the time you may be ahead.

    If villain is looking super uncomfortable and is capable of folding some Kx hands I think we have a profitable bluff spot.
  • kaboojiekaboojie Posts: 518Subscriber
    Generally speaking, its not good to 3 barrel bluff with flush draws because we are blocking the weakest part of V’s calling range. I think it’s better to do this with sds

    I also don’t like the eff stack sizes for running a 3 barrel bluff. They should be deep enough for close to a psb ott then have enough left for 3/4 psb shove. This will maximize fold equity. With these stack sizes, I don’t think running a 3 barrel bluff is a good option.
  • CycleVCycleV Posts: 1,196Subscriber
    Quick calls are usually draws or weak made hands. You're ahead of every draw and if he didn't blink on the ace, he apparently ain't in the mood to fold a weak made hand. Time to give up, I wouldn't be surprised to see Ax.
    Thanked by 1neutron212
  • Oback2Oback2 Posts: 208Subscriber
    edited March 2019
    Pre good, flop good. I’d overbet this turn. With these stacks it plays better just as an overbet jam imo.

    As played - give up
    Thanked by 1rappcity15
  • fishcakefishcake Posts: 1,002Subscriber
    Jam turn. As played give up.
    Thanked by 1neutron212
  • LessIsMoreLessIsMore Posts: 19Subscriber
    Not sure I like this as a bluff candidate. Rec loose passives are known for limp-calling suited garbage pre. You block a lot of his suited hearts, and clubs got there. Or maybe he was floating with some marginal Ax. I’ve known a lot of rec players to get sticky with top pair if they float a c-bet w Ace high and hit on turn or river (given a marginal Ax they would fold to triple barrel if Ace came on flop). Just my take though. If you think he’s competent enough to fold a FD on the turn, I’d consider jamming turn. As others have said, definitely give up river AP imho
  • PotLuckNeededPotLuckNeeded Posts: 58Subscriber, Professional
    Jam turn. I wouldn't consider bluffing river since we're blocking the FD.
  • GarlandGarland Posts: 518Subscriber
    edited April 2019
    Thanks for the thoughts. Things I was considering: (1) Fast call on turn indicative of draw (2) Getting villain off of a 5 or 6 or K on turn. I didn't consider jamming turn and that's my inexperience with over-betting and it's something I'll apply in the future. Another thought is he could have A x which could just check-call down. Anyhow, I went all-in, opponent paused, called and said "I runner-runner on you" and showed 4 2. In retrospect, as played I should have given up.
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