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2/5/10-straddle, H OOP vs Straddle, Do we barrel off?

Daytime Friday game at Caesars, $2/$5 $10 straddle UTG,
Game seems full of tight regs except for two obvious recs
Hero has been at the table for about 40min and have played pretty much only one pot where H raised all in otr and won without showdown vs a rec,

Details: V is lady who seems like the reg-type. She recently made big hero call vs overbet from a rec on 35TTT and got shown quads

The hand:
$640 effective,
$10 straddle UTG, Rec open limps EP, ABC-reg limps BTN, SB f, H in BB with J T and raises to $75, the V is the UTG straddle and calls, all others fold,

($163) Q :s: 8 3

H $80, V calls quicly

($323) Q :s: 8 3 4

H $175, V quickly asks how much? And mishears the dealer as saying $135 and puts out $135, then gets corrected by the dealer,

($670) Q :s: 8 3 4 8

H ?

What do you think about the turn bet and size? Should we check?

What about going for delayed cbet on the flop? The problem is what to do when V doesn't play along and bets the flop.

Thoughts on all streets are much appreciated, thanks!

Comments

  • philcphilc Posts: 19Subscriber, Professional
    Preflop I could see just over-limping at this short stack depth but if you decide to raise I think 75 is good. Standard would be 60-65 but this is a really nice place just to go for the steal with like any two cards and take down the ~$40 in the pot, so I like exploitatively tacking on like $10 to get more folds.

    I prefer delayed c-bet. Since most players at this level don't protect their ranges, you can just see if she bets flop (she almost always will bet if she has a Q or better). If she doesn't, you can blast a ton of turns for like $120+ for the delayed c-bet as an exploit, probably getting her to fold smaller pairs, A-highs and gutshots that she might have called flop with but that are beating us. Then if she still calls turn you can give up on a lot of rivers unless you hit your hand, and you probably get the same job done with minimal investment. I would probably give up on this particular river.

    As you mentioned, the problem with delayed c-bets in a lot of cases is that you risk being bluffed off your equity as it is difficult to call a flop bet with a gutshot at low SPR and thus little room to maneuver. In this case though I would actually be OK with folding if she 'doesn't pay along' and bets flop. Her range should be super strong due to preflop: she called 10% of her effective stack pre with bad relative position in what could have easily turned into a bloated multiway pot with low SPR; in that config I would personally probably only call with suited broadways/KQo+/99+. This range dominates your hand, so you would have to rely on bluffing her to try to win the pot. You don't really have the stack depth to bluff her, so I would be pretty OK with giving up on this pot.


    If you do bet, I think a good bet size for this flop would be $55--it probably gets the same job done with a little more efficiency. When she calls, what turns do we actually like to keep barreling (other than a 9)? I'd just way prefer to at least have a BDFD or an over card or something else going on along side the gutshot. I don't think this is a great turn to barrel as I still wouldn't expect her to fold much of anything now that she called on flop. Same with river. What hand does she fold to a half pot bet on a board pairing river? Everything screams to me that she has a pretty good Q.

    Maybe this seems a bit too weak and passive; I just feel like you are handcuffed by pot-size and stack depth. I'm interested to see how others respond to this one. What did you do and what wound up happening?
    Thanked by 1neutron212
  • PokerShamanPokerShaman Posts: 107Subscriber
    Disclaimer: The whole reason I am here on CLP is that I am feeling like my poker judgment is compromised.

    I think the real decider as to whether or not to raise preflop is the rake structure. Where I play, a club in California, if we see a flop the entire drop of $5 is taken out, no matter the pot size, so it is a coup to take the pot down preflop and not pay this. If the rake structure is milder as in Las Vegas, there is less incentive to take it down now. I would be inclined to call the straddle and see a flop.

    As played preflop, on the flop it is head up, we are out of position with initiative and range advantage, and the flop is fairly dry. Gutshot draws like what we actually have are the only one-card draws out there aside from overcards, and the only overcards are aces and kings. We have virtually no showdown value.

    Despite being out of position, this is a good spot for a flop c-bet, and I would be betting with a large portion of my range. I would certainly be c-betting gutshots.

    I might not be betting so large, however. Because this is a dry flop, it is hard to connect with, so it won't take much to get villains to fold. We like to size down if we can to reduce our required fold equity - the fraction of time that a villain must fold for a c-bet to at least break even with any two cards. In position I would be betting a quarter to a third of the pot. Here we are out of position, so we should bet larger, maybe a third to half a pot. Hero's half-pot bet is at the very top of this sizing range.

    And I should emphasize that unless we are exploiting a very specific known tendency of the villain, we should be using the same bet size for the value portion of our betting range as for our bluffs Doing this eliminates sizing tells.

    I can see an argument for a delayed c-bet if the villain is very sticky on the flop; but if we are to do this, we should be c-betting cards that favor our range more than the villain's. Aces may be a good choice, but kings would not be, because a straddler is going to have more kings in their fairly wide range than a small-blind raiser. The lowest cards in the deck help nobody, and so preserve our range advantage. If we had checked the flop and the villain checked behind, the 4 is a find choice for a delayed c-bet.

    As for what to do if we check the flop and the villain bets, we fold, of course. We shouldn't be checkraising much of anything for value on this dry flop, so there is no need to balance with checkraise bluffs. Our checking range should be protected by hands like AK, suited A3s (especially in diamonds or spades), 98s, or QTs, and so we ought to have little fear of being exploited by checking and folding a gutshot.

    I am fine with a turn c-bet, but I think half a pot is too light. We are going to bet bigger with our value hands; we should bet the same with our bluffs.

    On the river, the one read we have about the villain is that they can make big hero calls. I think this mitigates against firing a third barrel, especially since they have called our flop and turn bets so readily. Their tendency to call, plus their instacall on the flop may even indicate an exploitative check/fold on the turn.
  • SuperflySuperfly Posts: 591Subscriber
    edited March 2019
    I think the raise OOP vs 2 limpers pre is a little speculative esp given short effective stacks. I wouldn’t do it in a tough table but if limpers are folding and you have taggy image and want to have some fun, I’m down with it. A call is probably more standard.

    I usually don’t delay cbet bluff. In my experience, this often gets interpreted as weakness rather than strength unless you’ve shown some hands where you’ve checked back strong holdings for balance before.

    I would cbet 35% on flop and give up if called. You block what few draws are out there, and you seem to think V is sticky. Not sure the earlier hand you cited is proof of that, however. For example, calling an overbet with a big pair with TTT on the board wouldn’t necessarily be all that hero-y. Still, the fact that she called your raise pre with 2 limpers behind to act indicates strength. So I wouldn’t put a lot more money into the pot on a bluff here.
  • ChaseSpellChaseSpell Posts: 183Subscriber
    edited March 2019
    Thanks for these great responses!

    Im wodering if there is merit to firing river considering the V range might be wider than it would be against a $175 turn bet because V thought the bet was 135?

    My thinking in the moment was that if I bet 175 then V is going to expect the rest of the money to get in on the river, but my plan was to give up if she called the turn.

    In hindsight the line I like the most is a 0.35PSB cbet on the flop and then not barreling the turn, given how strong the V range should be. Maybe we could barrel a turn A?

    Results:
    I checked the river and she quickly checked back with 6 3 :s: and im left with my head spinning wodering if the river barrel would have worked
  • fishcakefishcake Posts: 1,002Subscriber
    I’m raising pre always here in this spot. Checking is nitty. Sizing is good. I’d check flop with no bdfd. Give up river.
  • philcphilc Posts: 19Subscriber, Professional
    LOL well there goes our analysis that her preflop range should be tight considering the action in front of her.... Sounds like she was tilted and may have been liable to call river. If she's calling down that light you just gotta start value betting craaaazyyyyy thin
  • OMGitsWormOMGitsWorm Posts: 272Subscriber, Professional
    Pre flop I will balance this hand between raises and just flatting. 60% flat 40% raise. It all comes down to a couple of factors
    1. Can I get this hand heads up if I raise
    2. Are there those limp reraise types limping along
    3. What’s my current image

    Flop-betting small like you did but I’m not setting up multi streets with your hand because there is no heart on the flop. Cb give up.

    River decision-you hand has zero show down and that’s a time people normal start bluffing. But I feel your possibly lighting money on fire bluffing river on this board. Most of the time she is going to have a Queen if she has called 2 streets on that dry board.

    That Vilain in the hand is a couple banana. I hope you where able to make the adjustments and get the right hands to value bet the crap out of her.
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