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Free Video: CLP Video No. 287: Home Game Bart Reviews His Splashy At $1-$3 Deep Part 2

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Episode 9 "When Not to Value Bet"

I always talk about value betting thin but sometimes there is an art in checking back the river when you have a strong hand. Discussion here.



  • First 30min were so obvious I felt like skipping the rest. Is the skill gap between your listeners really that big that you have to go through such obvious examples to make everyone happy ? Serious question here, maybe you should try and get a better idea so you know whether you really have to delve into such basic strategy...
    Really liked the A9cc hand, very good call in a spot where I regularly misplay the river.
  • Aldune,

    I didnt think that the first 30 minutes were that basic at all. Sometimes people taking valuebetting too far when they shift their games over and I was just trying to explain why in certain situations it may not be correct to even bet with the second nuts in position.

  • UntreatableFPSUntreatableFPS Posts: 1,004Subscriber
    I should have listened to this episode before playing my last session.

    Would this be another example of a river check from OOP?
    I think there are times not to go for 3 streets with TPTK if you're up against decent competition who will never call/call/call with worse if you bet/bet/bet

    I could tell villain here was a good grinder, and I think I made a mistake by betting this river

    Hero has been playing solid so far with a whole bunch of unknowns. 250BB effective.
    Hero makes it 4BB from UTG with AK
    Two callers, villain calls from button

    4 way to flop ~16BB to flop
    Flop K 8 4 rainbow
    Hero bets 10BB
    Folded to villain who calls

    Turn offsuit 8
    Hero bets 18BB
    Villain calls

    River 5

    If somebody like Bart is the villain, I believe this is a check, and more likely a c/f than c/c. Hero's line here looks a little too strong to ever get called by worse, and this is one of those situations where it just doesn't look like hero can be bluffing.
    I ended up betting the river and folding to a small raise. In retrospect, I don't think there was much value in betting here.
  • shmedshmed Posts: 321Subscriber
    Claire, I like with a bet fold here. You are getting value by betting the river vs. letting him check behind a weaker K. 2 pair seems unlikely on this board as is a chased gut-shot. Although an 8 is obviously possible (thus the B/F line), it's not especially consistent with the turn, where a better player would probably try to make the pot bigger at this point. I'm always trying to bet fold more and my thought is this seems like a good place for it.

    Here's a recent thin bet-fold I made -- I'll explain my rationale and see if you all agree or if it was too thin.

    $3/5: I have ~$440 and raise $25 in MP with QdTd, CO calls (new to the table, no reads) has me covered, BB calls, has about $200.
    Flop comes Jd 8c 3h. BB checks. I c-bet $50 as it's a nice board texture and I have a tight image. CO calls, BB folds.
    Turn is a 9c, giving me the nut straight. I bet $100, and CO thinks and calls.
    River is the Jc, pairing the top card and completing a back door FD. I bet $200. My goal here is to specifically get value from a J that spiked trips on the river based on the following hand analysis:

    I think a club flush is less likely as it is back door -- and couldn't have been completed by something like AcJc given the Jc on the river.
    I think a set becoming a FH is unlikely as the villain would likely have raised by the turn.
    The most plausible hands that beat me are J9 or J8 two pair, but even then I think many times I would have faced a raise on the flop or the turn.
    Also my hand is disguised, it's probably hard for him to put me on QT or T7 since both were gutshots. Bottom line is that most average players can't fold trips here despite the dangerous board, and his calls in position seemed consistent with a a TP kind of hand.

    The CO called after not much thought and wryly mucked after he saw my hand. One thought I did have was whether I should have just shoved for $265 as I wasn't deep enough to bet fold anyway. I chose $200 because I thought it was more likely to be called by what I thought he had, but I definitely could have missed value there.

    Anyway, I felt this was a well-reasoned value bet on a very dangerous river card, but of course welcome discussion.
  • I'd shove there schmd. A jack is never going to fold.

    And as far as the AK hand above I definitely that the river is a bet. Maybe vs me I fold a weaker K there to three streets of aggression but most live players are incapable of folding a hand like KQ or KJ in that spot. You have to go extract more value.

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