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Ace King facing a small turn raise

Jax1234Jax1234 Posts: 67Member
edited March 2019 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
1/3 Seattle. I am the effective stack with $300. I am under the gun. The villain is on the button.

I have ace king :s: I raise to $10. The button and big blind call.

Flop is king 8 7 :s: Big blind checks. I bet $15. Villain calls, big blind folds.

Turn is the 9 I bet $35. Villain raises to $75. While it is effectively a minimum raise, should I call? I have the ace of clubs, which makes it less likely that the villain is on a flush draw. If I call the turn, can I call any large river bet (e.g. $100 or more) that is not an ace or a king, which would just be five outs? I made what I thought was an exploitative fold because I couldn't figure out a hand that would call the flop and raise the turn that I was beating (pocket tens perhaps with the turned open ended straight draw?).

This spot is a pretty standard 1/3 spot, which is figuring out if the villain actually has a value hand that even has ace king dominated or if the villain is a fish who is accidentally raising for value by overvaluing king queen or king jack. My table image was that of a total nit and nits do not usually get raised on king high boards by villains unless the villains have two pair or higher.
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Comments

  • Jax1234Jax1234 Posts: 67Member
    edited March 2019
    Is this the right way to think about it?

    I have 0% equity against a straight or set.

    I have 94% equity against king queen or king jack.

    I have 78-80% equity against tens or king ten

    I have 6-16% equity against a two-pair hand.

    So (0+94+79+11)/4 =46. If I call the turn, am I committed under the math to calling a half pot bet on a relatively clean river?
  • FloydBFloydB Posts: 12Subscriber
    It's really player dependent, If V is strong opponent he knows the turn doesn't improve your hand then maybe there's a reason to call the turn and river if opponent is capable of making moves. As you said at 1/3 against a nit not many are raising without two pair or better. My best guess is V has 98 and 65. Possible bluff hands are Tc9c and TcTx. And you would think the raise would be more than $75. Good fold on the turn.
  • Jax1234Jax1234 Posts: 67Member
    Any merit to checking the turn? Checking does give the villain a chance to think his King/jack, king/queen hands are good. If I am behind, I get to see a river to draw out against a two pair hand and it probably costs me around the same $35 anyway with the difference being I get to see a river.

    I know bet for value and fold to a raise is considered the most profitable and exploitative play at low stakes but was that line the most optimal to pursue.

    I probably should just call off if I do not have the ace of clubs in my hand right?
  • GlennJonesGlennJones Posts: 176Subscriber
    edited March 2019
    Not sure I follow the equity calculation above. That calculation doesn't appear to take into account villain's range.

    One recommendation I have would be to raise more preflop. In the games I play in here in L.A., typical preflop raise would be in the $15 to $18 range. Sometimes that has the side benefit of narrowing the villain's ranges a little bit (sometimes not - I try to observe everything that goes to showdown).

    In this hand, villain is button, so the preflop calling range is probably going to be pretty wide to a small preflop raise. What is the villain's VPIP? What have they been calling with? Are they positionally aware? Are they capable of thinking of your range or are they just playing their hand? Do they even recognize that you are playing tight/nitty?

    I think one thing that makes these low stakes games difficult (for me at least) is the assumption that my opponents are thinking about their hand the same way that I would.

    As far as checking the turn? No. I would bet bet bet for value. When raised, I am probably calling the turn, and checking the river and assessing villain's action. Bart had a recent call in hand where the hero was raised on the turn on a board where the straight completed. Hero called. Villain then checked back the river with a two pair hand. Point being - if this is typical low stakes passive game, the min raise could be a "let's see where I am" with KQ, KJ. Once you call, villain is probably only continuing with nutty hands. Just my two cents....
  • Chester DrafmanChester Drafman Posts: 36Subscriber
    I agree with Glenn.
  • neverlearn2neverlearn2 Posts: 2,862Subscriber
    Most villains I fold here and I'm right it seems. The few that make moves if you call get ready for fifth Street chicken or can lead River as blocker but that doesn't work too often and we are good
  • PotLuckNeededPotLuckNeeded Posts: 58Subscriber, Professional
    edited March 2019
    I agree with Glenn's breakdown. Since we're holding the Ac, are we considering turning our top pair into a bluff if certain clubs hits the river?
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