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AA OTB vs ALL the Limps

Weeknight $1/2 Session at Twin River Casino

When I came to the table I was in the straddle position and I like to make a loose impression, So I straddle to $4. I have been seated for about 20 minutes and am up $35ish from my $300 buyin. I have been active early, and have had KK, QQ, AKo already. I'm feel like my image is pretty loose at this point and I haven't had to show down any hands so far. This table has more limpers than usual, as you will see in this hand. Hero has $335, MP Villain has $275, and HJ Villain has us covered with about $450.

Hero on the Button with Ah Ad

Every player at the table limps over to me. $12 in limpers, and $3 in blinds. I make it $20

The MP Villain is a man in his late 50s, and he calls.
The HJ Villain is a 25ish looking grinder, and he calls

Pot is $68ish. Flop is Kc 9s 5s
Both Villains Check
I Cbet $45
The MP villain calls (I have cbet him out of 2 pots already)
The HJ Villain check raises to 165.

What Now? If I call, I only have $150 behind.... In a pot that will be at LEAST $440 (if MP Folds)

It feels like a Jam or Fold situation, or am I failing to consider any information? I don't block nut flush draws (I have both red Aces) and its unlikely anyone is limp calling KK. Is there an amount that the HJ could rationally checkraise to where we can flat?
Jam? Call? Fold?
  1. Jam? Call? Fold?16 votes
    1. Fold
      25.00%
    2. Jam
      75.00%
    3. Call
        0.00%
Tagged:

Comments

  • Maximilian65Maximilian65 Posts: 36Subscriber
    Jam. Nobody showed any strength preflop. The board is pretty wet... I'd be jamming targeting top pairs, flush draws, and straight draws. We can expect to sometimes run into K9 for top 2 and some sets.
  • SonnySonny Posts: 390Subscriber
    edited February 2019
    I think the fact that no one showed any strength pre flop is a worse reason to jam than if they did. If someone showed strength preflop you could at least reasonably put them on AK, which we beat.
    When a player who limp calls all of a sudden goes for a check raise over the pre flop raisers c-bet and a call, thats awfully strong.
    I think the check raiser probably has a range of sets, or Kings worse than AK and Kx of Spades hands.

    I doubt they have two pair, maybe K9 once in a while but thats doubtful. Even if they did have top two with K9, I wouldn't be really supprised if they just called down in a $1/2 game. Its only a bordline "nut" hand and in most $1/2-$1/3 games players are only really willing to get in a lot of money with sets or better. Obviously a player who has even a bit of a clue knows K9 is good, but not all $1/2 players are going to be willing to go broke with two pair. On the other hand some really bad $1/2 players are willing to loose lots of money with two pair when its never good.

    So what do we do? Good question. 99 is a limping hand for most $1/2 players, so they can have lots of sets.
    We really only have a bluff catcher, or a hand that beats someone over valuing a King. Lower limit players don't check raise bluff almost ever. Most players at this level aren't check raising a flush draw. If you think this player is capable of over valuing a King here than jam. I would probably lean toward folding however.
    Thanked by 1neutron212
  • ds2uaredds2uared Posts: 464Subscriber
    edited February 2019
    Preflop for me this is at least 25-30. Especially if you get someone in earlier position who limped to call, it could cascade. If it does, I want this pot to be huge. You are quite deep. Bloat the pot with Aces, especially in a situation which is a confluence of superb circumstances (literally EVERYONE limps, you seem aggressive and loose, you have the button, you have a winning image).

    There is every A :s: X :s: out there, including A :s: K :s:. (You'd be surprised how many players will limp-call with AK preflop and then overplay their hand).

    The K is not a :s: . Top pair and flush draw might be a huge part of limp-calling ranges, all the way down to K :s: 8 :s: .

    Because the board is also K95 with 2 spades, there are also several straight-flush draws that might play very aggressively. QJ, QT, JT, 87, 86, 76 :s: :s: :s: :s: .... (Against K85 or K94, I'd be less inclined to call.)

    6 straight-flush draw combos. 8-9 Ace-high flush draw combos (depending on if you count AK). Let's play it safe and say only 3 top pair-flush draw possibilities. Let's say half AK combos, so 3 combos.

    A chance the MP villain has put in 45 of dead money. And that dead money might be inducing aggression from a big stack who sees a squeeze opportunity with a semi-bluff.

    There are 18 value combos.

    Against the value and semi-bluff range, 2 red Aces are about 45%. Throw in dead money, bluff-equity (versus low flush draws), spazz factor, loose, bluffy image (versus AK's), and the fun of getting your money in bad and sucking out (it happens), I think a jam is in order.

    If I hold the A :s:, this changes to a fold.


  • VdaraVdara Posts: 2Subscriber
    [img][/img]I appreciate the analysis and the votes in the poll. DS, I do agree my sizing preflop was a bit small, and you basically described everything that was going on in my mind. The range that made sense in my head at the time was AKss, KQss, KJss, 78ss, 67ss, 55, 99, AsKx, QJss, JTss . I have approximately 40% equity vs that range. If i fold I have 270 from my initial 335. If I jam, and only the check-raiser calls, I have 39.67% of 745 = $295. Obviously if your ranging is wrong the results can be skewed, but is our train of thought here correct given the pot size and expected equity?
  • irwinbetirwinbet Posts: 408Subscriber
    Haven't read responses yet. Given your image & the description of this game I would size a little larger pre.
    I think this is a shove on the flop. No one should have 2 pair on this board & there are only 2 combos of K9 suited they could have. I would think the HJ would raise w/ 99 some of the time so I would be less likely to give him that set although he could have 55. He could be going with top pair & a flush draw. The fact that you don't have the A :s: makes it more likely someone could have that draw. Your image probably looks like you could be getting out of line so they might be a more likely to "take a stand" lighter than usual. Given all of that I can't fold this hand here.
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