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How thin is too thin?

GarlandGarland Posts: 518Subscriber
edited February 2019 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
Lucky Chances $3/$5. $425 Effective.
Hero J 9 on button. Straddle is on. I limp after 2 limps, SB (only a few hands played, but seem passive) and BB completes, straddle checks.

Flop ($60): J 4 :s: 2 :s: . Checks to Hero who bets $25, only SB calls.

Turn ($110): Q. Checks to Hero who bets $50, SB calls.

River ($210). J :s:. Checks to Hero who ???

Bet? And if so, how much?
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Comments

  • Shorn7Shorn7 Posts: 39Subscriber
    Definitely betting here and folding if checkraised. I bet like $85-$90.
  • GarlandGarland Posts: 518Subscriber
    Results: Hero decides there are very few worse J that can possibly call and villain has a lot of flushes in his range. Hero checked behind and was shown K :s: 8 :s:.

    I have been in these situations several times where it's checked to me on 3-flush boards where I have trips, but the out of position player is afraid of a boat. Each time I value owned myself against a flush.

    Based on the way this played. if I'm getting checked raised here, it's almost certainly going to be a boat and not a flush.
  • BeatsmeBeatsme Posts: 603Subscriber
    I think you could go bigger OTF. I prefer 35 here. After everyone checks this flop I believe we have the best hand here almost always. I like getting more value right now when I can.

    IMO turn can be a bit bigger as well.

    OTR I think villain could have a decent amount of flushes here BUT he checked so I like a small bet. IDK I guess its player dependent. Vs sticky villains im betting small to get looked up by pp and random Qs. Vs nits I may check back because flush gets there and its possible they have better Js. The key is if you bet can you get called and have the best hand> 50% of the time. Maybe not vs a nit but against normal passive villains I think you could.
  • GarlandGarland Posts: 518Subscriber
    edited February 2019
    Beatsme wrote: »
    I think you could go bigger OTF. I prefer 35 here. After everyone checks this flop I believe we have the best hand here almost always. I like getting more value right now when I can.

    IMO turn can be a bit bigger as well.

    OTR I think villain could have a decent amount of flushes here BUT he checked so I like a small bet. IDK I guess its player dependent. Vs sticky villains im betting small to get looked up by pp and random Qs. Vs nits I may check back because flush gets there and its possible they have better Js. The key is if you bet can you get called and have the best hand> 50% of the time. Maybe not vs a nit but against normal passive villains I think you could.

    Thanks for your comments. I am experimenting with smaller betting to keep our opponent's range wide, i.e. I'm pricing in Ax gutshots, or anyone with a smaller piece of the flop. In my personal experience, I am getting more value and not getting into too many sticky situations (e.g. not getting check-raised). This can also give me a good price on some semi-bluffs and can value bet with worse hands.
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