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Trips on River after being raised on Turn - 3 flush board , and now a River Shove - Hero's Action?

292YBlock292YBlock Posts: 101Subscriber
edited January 2019 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
1/2
Main V has about 180, and H has him covered

Hero's standard open from mid position is 9 + 1 blind for each limper, and it folds to hero in MP1 with JsJc
V button - older, but not necessarily OMC, haven't played much with him before, V calls, SB calls, BB folds
(29) flop 89 2 (two spades) H -15 Button calls , SB folds
(59) turn Qs H- bets small (25)..and gets raised to 76..51 to call, H tanks for a bit, probably too long, and calls. V has about 75 behind, my thinking is his raise is a little off if he has a made hand - unless he's raising for protection, a flopped set maybe? I decided to call and re-evaluate the river. If a spade comes I might be good, only loosing to A or K of spades.
(221) river is a red J, so now I beat hands like Q 9, 8 9, etc. Hero checks, V shoves, ..Hero, 75 to win 296, action?
I decided to call, he shoved really fast, which I often see as a live tell (bluff), you don't see that many river bluffs at 1/2..so I gave it a lot of thought, he turned over 67o with one spade, so I was good - think my turn sizing was definitely small, and maybe that's why he raised with the open ender. Is my check, a mistake - am I potentially missing value there?

Comments

  • ChaseSpellChaseSpell Posts: 183Subscriber
    edited January 2019
    Bet at least 25 on the flop, anything less is just missing value here.

    This isn't a great turn for hero. You should probably check.

    Betting the turn isn't terrible as long as we don't bet too large. After villain calls a large turn bet our jacks will lose much of their showdown value against villain's range. A big bet here is going to start to threaten stacks, and we are far from committed. You shouldn't be looking to build up the pot in this situation.

    The best play on the turn is probably a check. With the J :s: in our hand we can check-call against most sizes on the turn, and check-evaluate on blank rivers. Bet-folding red jacks here is ok, but facing a raise with our hand is far from ideal at this SPR.

    As played, I don't like the line of just calling the turn raise because there isn't enough stack depth left to consider just calling and then evaluating rivers. Once we call that raise you said V only has 75 more behind, so we are virtually committed to any further action. So you should treat the turn raise as if V shoved 151 all in. It would be $235 in the pot and $126 to call, or about 1.8-1 odds. If you think you have better than about 36% against V range then you should ship the turn, if not, fold. The only possible way calling is better than jamming is if V can be on some bluff (that he would fold to a jam), and he will continue to bluff if we just call and check to him on the end. I realize that is in fact what occurred, but in my experience most opponents won't try to bluff you for the last 75 into 221 in these situations because the bluff succeeds so rarely, and by not jamming turn you're just giving him a cheaper price to realize his equity with his semi-bluffs.

    You ask if your river check is missing value, but don't worry about that because the line goes wrong earlier in the hand.
  • 292YBlock292YBlock Posts: 101Subscriber
    Chase wrote: »
    Bet at least 25 on the flop, anything less is just missing value here.

    This isn't a great turn for hero. You should probably check.

    Betting the turn isn't terrible as long as we don't bet too large. After villain calls a large turn bet our jacks will lose much of their showdown value against villain's range. A big bet here is going to start to threaten stacks, and we are far from committed. You shouldn't be looking to build up the pot in this situation.

    The best play on the turn is probably a check. With the J :s: in our hand we can check-call against most sizes on the turn, and check-evaluate on blank rivers. Bet-folding red jacks here is ok, but facing a raise with our hand is far from ideal at this SPR.

    As played, I don't like the line of just calling the turn raise because there isn't enough stack depth left to consider just calling and then evaluating rivers. Once we call that raise you said V only has 75 more behind, so we are virtually committed to any further action. So you should treat the turn raise as if V shoved 151 all in. It would be $235 in the pot and $126 to call, or about 1.8-1 odds. If you think you have better than about 36% against V range then you should ship the turn, if not, fold. The only possible way calling is better than jamming is if V can be on some bluff (that he would fold to a jam), and he will continue to bluff if we just call and check to him on the end. I realize that is in fact what occurred, but in my experience most opponents won't try to bluff you for the last 75 into 221 in these situations because the bluff succeeds so rarely, and by not jamming turn you're just giving him a cheaper price to realize his equity with his semi-bluffs.

    You ask if your river check is missing value, but don't worry about that because the line goes wrong earlier in the hand.

    Interesting, I really appreciate the detailed feedback, re: the turn, in my experience checking the turn is pretty exploitable, I like my small bet, but can see a fold / shove response to the raise... I just don't think there's much fold equity here.

  • ChaseSpellChaseSpell Posts: 183Subscriber
    edited January 2019
    292YBlock wrote: »
    ...I just don't think there's much fold equity here.

    Yes, the turn raise is pot-committing for both players, that's why just calling the raise makes no sense. Your opponent is unlikely to attempt to bluff the river when you appear to be pot committed. Jamming the turn isn't better than calling because jamming gets V to fold any better hands (it's very unlikely). Remember, we are treating the raise to 76 as if it was an all-in for 151. You're jamming because, by continuing vs the raise you'll be committed, and you think you have enough equity vs V range to make committing +EV.
  • 292YBlock292YBlock Posts: 101Subscriber
    Chase wrote: »
    292YBlock wrote: »
    ...I just don't think there's much fold equity here.
    You're jamming because, by continuing vs the raise you'll be committed, and you think you have enough equity vs V range to make committing +EV.

    Got it - thanks

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