1:2 NLHE, optional $5 straddle. Players involved: UTG, total whale pissing away his fourth $100 rebuy, I’m in the cutoff with about $800, button (villain)is a strong, aggressive player with a wide range, winning a lot of pots without getting to many showdowns. I’ve played with him a lot. His stack is $1100.
Whale shoves. I have Ac Jh. I consider iso raising but believe I have enough equity to get value on future streets so I just call. Villain calls. Pot is $228.
Flop comes Js 9h 7s. Pretty connected but I think top/top with back door spades is worth a bet. I make it $175. Button calls. Pot is now $580. ($225 main. $355 side). Turn is 6h. More draws come in.
Now, I know a bet is pretty mandatory but how much? I have like $550 left. A bet will be half my stack, maybe more. I know I’m ahead because villain cannot have a set, two pairs or an over pair because he’s 100% raising the flop with those based on his style and our history. If I bet this flop and one of the draws hit on the river, then what? If I check the river villain can easily bluff or bet for value. I am blocking the back door hearts and hold one of his spades but still. If a draw hits on the river I’m in a really tough spot.
I figure if I bet this flop I’m pretty much committed regardless of the river so I shove it all in. Villain tanks for 2 minutes and folds. My question is did I miss value by not just betting the turn? (BTW villain told me later that he folded a combo draw with a 10h which I believe knowing him as well as I do). So. Missed value?