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1:2 NLHE Missed Value?

1:2 NLHE, optional $5 straddle. Players involved: UTG, total whale pissing away his fourth $100 rebuy, I’m in the cutoff with about $800, button (villain)is a strong, aggressive player with a wide range, winning a lot of pots without getting to many showdowns. I’ve played with him a lot. His stack is $1100.

Whale shoves. I have Ac Jh. I consider iso raising but believe I have enough equity to get value on future streets so I just call. Villain calls. Pot is $228.

Flop comes Js 9h 7s. Pretty connected but I think top/top with back door spades is worth a bet. I make it $175. Button calls. Pot is now $580. ($225 main. $355 side). Turn is 6h. More draws come in.

Now, I know a bet is pretty mandatory but how much? I have like $550 left. A bet will be half my stack, maybe more. I know I’m ahead because villain cannot have a set, two pairs or an over pair because he’s 100% raising the flop with those based on his style and our history. If I bet this flop and one of the draws hit on the river, then what? If I check the river villain can easily bluff or bet for value. I am blocking the back door hearts and hold one of his spades but still. If a draw hits on the river I’m in a really tough spot.

I figure if I bet this flop I’m pretty much committed regardless of the river so I shove it all in. Villain tanks for 2 minutes and folds. My question is did I miss value by not just betting the turn? (BTW villain told me later that he folded a combo draw with a 10h which I believe knowing him as well as I do). So. Missed value?

Thanks. Bill
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Comments

  • NorbertHeringNorbertHering Posts: 16Member
    This question is easy: BU-Range 28.90% 27.20% 1.70% JJ-22, ATs-A2s, KJs-K9s, Q9s+, J9s+, T8s+, 97s+, 86s+, 76s, 65s, AJo-ATo, KJo+

    You: 71.10% 69.40% 1.70% AcJh - maybe you missed some value, but you got a great nice pot. Why risk it with TPTK?
  • Bart HansonBart Hanson Posts: 6,113Administrator, LeadPro
    This question is easy: BU-Range 28.90% 27.20% 1.70% JJ-22, ATs-A2s, KJs-K9s, Q9s+, J9s+, T8s+, 97s+, 86s+, 76s, 65s, AJo-ATo, KJo+

    You: 71.10% 69.40% 1.70% AcJh - maybe you missed some value, but you got a great nice pot. Why risk it with TPTK?

    Not sure about this range.. He certainly doesn't have 22-88 here after calling the flop, if he called preflop.. This spot is a little bit dicey. Weird SPR. I would be concerned about exposing my stack and overplaying my hand. With you having a jack it probably lends it self for the button to have more draws then say KJ or AJ that you are trying to get value fro. I don't mind you're play. Not sure how often button with be slowplaying 99 or 77.. If he's a strong player he should never have J9, T8 etc etc..
  • SonnySonny Posts: 390Subscriber
    These spots come up a lot in capped games. These amounts are bigger but the SPR is similar.
    I do agree with we dont want to overplay TPTK here.
    So the pot is $580, $335 on the side and you have $550 left, and you have to beat the guy all in btw... I think if you are going to bet, jamming is probably best. You're probably never bluffing here regardless, however if you just bet $200 it looks really strong, going all in at least looks polar, and leaves the posibility of you to be bluffing. If you make a smaller bet it also opens you up to being shoved on and puts you in a ugly spot.
    I think generally at these stakes with these amounts it doesn't matter much. If they're going to call $250 they're probably going to call $550. Likewise if they're going to fold for $550 they're probably folding to anything more than $200 anyway.
    If the opponent is knowledgeable enough he might call a bet where hes getting the right price, but giving him the right price is a bad play.
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