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Bad call?

ZachWaldmanZachWaldman Posts: 65Subscriber
edited October 2018 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
Hollywood Park

Hero in HJ with $500 effective
Lojack makes opens to $30
I call with JQ (with Q of spades)
Button and small blind call

4 players ($120)
Flop - JQK with two spades
It's checked to me and I bet $40
Button (professional) make it about $225
SB goes all in
Lojack folds
I've got two pair and a backdoor spade draw
I go all in and so does button

Button and SB both show AT off

The turn and river don't help me and now I'm at home posting this. :)

Whatcha think?


Comments

  • PrimoVictorPrimoVictor Posts: 59Subscriber
    edited October 2018
    Once the out of position sb goes all-in over the raise I would honestly let this one go. You've only lost $70 this point and are facing two big bets with bottom two. Look for a better spot even with holding the Q :s:

    Also with bottom two if checked to you on the flop I would bet a little larger to protect/find out information. $70-80 seems right to me. This will let you know even more about their hand strength I feel when you are raised twice. $40 is letting way too many hands see the turn.
    Thanked by 1ZachWaldman
  • 292YBlock292YBlock Posts: 101Subscriber
    edited October 2018
    Is that a typical open 6 X? Any information "feel" for the lojack? How about others to act, especially the button...the button is key, because if you think he's super nitty you might want to raise here rather than call, I'd rather play this hand heads up in position. When you just call you're giving all kinds of hands, including the blinds a good price to call with suited Aces...Kings...any suited broadways, etc. For me - depending on the other players left to act, and the lojacks' personality - this is more of a raise or fold situation pre-flop. As played the 40 bet is almost a c-bet..encouraging a raise from a wide range of hands, if the pre-flop raiser checks,I'm betting at least half the pot here ---maybe even 2/3 so I agree with PrimoVictor here , bet 60-80 (more towards 80) and if you get raised it's an easy fold... if you just get called be wary of cards that complete draws. Curious if others agree that pre-flop: raise / fold should be considered.
    Hollywood Park

    Hero in HJ with $500 effective
    Lojack makes opens to $30
    I call with JQ (with Q of spades)
    Button and small blind call

    4 players ($120)
    Flop - JQK with two spades
    It's checked to me and I bet $40
    Button (professional) make it about $225
    SB goes all in
    Lojack folds
    I've got two pair and a backdoor spade draw
    I go all in and so does button

    Button and SB both show AT off

    The turn and river don't help me and now I'm at home posting this. :)

    Whatcha think?



    Thanked by 1ZachWaldman
  • kaboojiekaboojie Posts: 518Subscriber
    I would fold pf. QJs is a call. QJo is a fold.

    AP- The small blind’s 3! X/r looks very strong. Unless he is a complete maniac, I would fold.
    Thanked by 1ZachWaldman
  • SpikeSpike Posts: 24Subscriber
    edited October 2018
    PF i could see calling or raising i don't think this was that bad of mistake,

    The issue here is on the flop, you shouldn't bet this hand on this flop and sizing is way to small.

    Once you bet and get 3 bet then the SB check raises all in he definitely is very strong this is an easy fold.

    To answer you original question yes very bad call.
    Thanked by 1ZachWaldman
  • deadinaditchdeadinaditch Posts: 245Subscriber
    edited October 2018
    I might fold this pre-flop but it's not horrible if you're good enough to get away from TP type hands. That said I like the call. I think the ranges of both villains are pretty similar and they're not limited to the nuts. I don't think you're up against many sets as I think most of them 3! pre-flop. That leaves just about every Broadway hand imaginable other than AK which also should have raised pre. Against a range on 22+, AT+, KT+,QT, JT and even 9T (probably suited but lets just leave it alone) your QsJx is a 40% to 30% favorite against either of their ranges. You're getting 3.3:1 to call assuming the Button is calling too and I think you only need about 1.5:1. (The two all-ins complicate the math a bit so feel free to correct me). And here's the thing! Even if you could see both their hands (ATo?) you only need 3.85:1 so even then it's only slightly -EV.

    Good Call. Bad results.
    Thanked by 1ZachWaldman
  • SpikeSpike Posts: 24Subscriber
    I might fold this pre-flop but it's not horrible if you're good enough to get away from TP type hands. That said I like the call. I think the ranges of both villains are pretty similar and they're not limited to the nuts. I don't think you're up against many sets as I think most of them 3! pre-flop. That leaves just about every Broadway hand imaginable other than AK which also should have raised pre. Against a range on 22+, AT+, KT+,QT, JT and even 9T (probably suited but lets just leave it alone) your QsJx is a 40% to 30% favorite against either of their ranges. You're getting 3.3:1 to call assuming the Button is calling too and I think you only need about 1.5:1. (The two all-ins complicate the math a bit so feel free to correct me). And here's the thing! Even if you could see both their hands (ATo?) you only need 3.85:1 so even then it's only slightly -EV.

    Good Call. Bad results.

    Hopefully this doesn't seem like i'm being to argumentative, trying to be conversational.

    The ranges got more defined by the action, once we have a bet raise and x/r all in the x/r has defined his hand to mostly nutted hands.

    I agree with you probably not any sets here which means we can remove all the pairs 22+ from the ranges maybe someone could get crazy with AA or 1010?

    If you can see the hands of ATo if someone hold the A :s: he is 80 20 dog to that hand
  • ZachWaldmanZachWaldman Posts: 65Subscriber
    Thank you all for the feedback. The reason I made such a small bet on the flop was because I'm trying to follow Bart's advice on 1/3 bet sizing to let a wider ranger of hands in. I felt I smashed this flop, but then again I may have overestimated my equity.

    Can someone please give me some advice when it comes to the idea of 1/3 bet sizing on the flop? I'm new to using this size and I may be missing some key concepts.
  • ohsnapzbrahohsnapzbrah Posts: 632Subscriber
    Not looking at other posters right now, but first this should be a fold preflop. QJo just doesn't play well against a LJ range. I'd like this much better if LJ limped and we raised. I wouldn't even think about 3bet bluffing this hand because we'll just be dominated too often and we don't have potential flush draws or backdoor draws to help us with our bluffing equity.

    As played on the flop, $40 into $120 is just way too small of a bet. We're losing out on quite a bit of value from Tx, Kx, Qx, etc. I'd bet more like $80 or $90.

    After the raise and the check/raise jam, just fold. We're beaten and we aren't getting close to good pot odds to draw out. KQ, KJ, AT, T9 are all plausible hands in the range of both players.
    Thanked by 1ZachWaldman
  • ohsnapzbrahohsnapzbrah Posts: 632Subscriber
    I might fold this pre-flop but it's not horrible if you're good enough to get away from TP type hands. That said I like the call. I think the ranges of both villains are pretty similar and they're not limited to the nuts. I don't think you're up against many sets as I think most of them 3! pre-flop. That leaves just about every Broadway hand imaginable other than AK which also should have raised pre. Against a range on 22+, AT+, KT+,QT, JT and even 9T (probably suited but lets just leave it alone) your QsJx is a 40% to 30% favorite against either of their ranges. You're getting 3.3:1 to call assuming the Button is calling too and I think you only need about 1.5:1. (The two all-ins complicate the math a bit so feel free to correct me). And here's the thing! Even if you could see both their hands (ATo?) you only need 3.85:1 so even then it's only slightly -EV.

    Good Call. Bad results.

    This math seems a little off. The best equity we get in equilab is when both players have a straight, which gives us just 18% equity....needing worse than 4:1 pot odds to call. If we include other two pair, all the straights, and JJ in both players' ranges, we have just 11%.

    The pot is $855, $430 to call. We're getting just about 2:1, so we need 33% (we can't count on BTN calling). Even against just SB, we're not getting close to the price (we have 17% against just one player, so need ~5:1).

    I think the math may be a little off because the range is probably off. I don't think either player has 22+, and in fact only squarely has JJ. AT+ is also probably a little wide. Good chance AK and AQ is 3bet preflop, and hard to imagine AJ being raised and/or cold 3bet check raise jammed on this flop. KT may be possible from BTN, but probably not from SB, but KQ and KJ are possible. QT falls into the same boat as KT, as does JT.
    Thanked by 1ZachWaldman
  • JLBJJLBJ Posts: 172Subscriber
    @ZachWaldman I don’t use the 1/3 bet size often, but this would be one of the worst flops to do it on. Times to use it would be on dry boards where your value hands have opponents crushed and you’re betting small trying to keep them in with weaker pairs or ace-highs, and you can balance that with some bluffs too.

    This is as wet a flop as it gets and would actually be a time to size up because it is easy to get called by so many draws, pair plus straight draws, etc.

    As played, it’s a fold after the raise and check-raise jam. It would be hitting quite a parlay to have both of those players beat, and when you’re behind (as you almost always will be), you have very little equity.
    Thanked by 1ZachWaldman
  • deadinaditchdeadinaditch Posts: 245Subscriber
    Spike wrote: »
    I might fold this pre-flop but it's not horrible if you're good enough to get away from TP type hands. That said I like the call. I think the ranges of both villains are pretty similar and they're not limited to the nuts. I don't think you're up against many sets as I think most of them 3! pre-flop. That leaves just about every Broadway hand imaginable other than AK which also should have raised pre. Against a range on 22+, AT+, KT+,QT, JT and even 9T (probably suited but lets just leave it alone) your QsJx is a 40% to 30% favorite against either of their ranges. You're getting 3.3:1 to call assuming the Button is calling too and I think you only need about 1.5:1. (The two all-ins complicate the math a bit so feel free to correct me). And here's the thing! Even if you could see both their hands (ATo?) you only need 3.85:1 so even then it's only slightly -EV.

    Good Call. Bad results.

    Hopefully this doesn't seem like i'm being to argumentative, trying to be conversational.

    The ranges got more defined by the action, once we have a bet raise and x/r all in the x/r has defined his hand to mostly nutted hands.

    I agree with you probably not any sets here which means we can remove all the pairs 22+ from the ranges maybe someone could get crazy with AA or 1010?

    If you can see the hands of ATo if someone hold the A :s: he is 80 20 dog to that hand

    Not argumentative at all. Agreed that the pairs up to 99 should have been discarded from the range and does change the math some but it we give both villains a range of any 2 broadways and maybe TT then Zack is still 27% to win and 4% to tie. So he only needs about 2:1 to call and he's getting over 3:1 which should give him a little wiggle room if you weigh them more towards the nuts. I still think this might be slightly +EV but even if it isn't it's not a WTF! bad call.
    Thanked by 1ZachWaldman
  • FuzzypupFuzzypup Posts: 2,577Subscriber
    Do the math on bottom 2 pair vs a strong range and a semibluff range consisting of a pair + draw or semi-big draw. You are incredibly well behind.
    Thanked by 1ZachWaldman
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