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2/5 What's a good river bluff sizing?

ClockClock Posts: 1,133Subscriber
2/5 1K cap
V is mid aged asian lady. She's a regular, she very tight and doesn't play many hands pre.

~1K effective

V opens UTG to 20, folded to HERO in MP calls with K :s: T :s: , a pretty big donk/station calls on BU

Flop (60): A :s: 7 :s: 5 - V checks - I think she would never check a big Ace on such a board especially with the station behind, so HERO bets 40, donk folds and V calls
When she calls I think she def has something other than air, but obviously the most likely hands are mid-big PP like 88-KK...it's also possible she might play set of Aces this way

Turn (140): 3 V checks, I decide to keep the pressure on and bet 125, V now tanks for some time, but eventually calls.
My live read is that she's very uncomfortable.

River (390): 7 V, quickly checks to us...

How much are we betting?
Tagged:

Comments

  • SonnySonny Posts: 390Subscriber
    Stack sizes?

    I am thinking somewhere around $275 would be the sizing I would use. I'm not a giant fan of polarized bluff sizes, like betting full pot. I think polarized bet sizes look polarized (duh), and I think making it look like you are just keeping to bet your AQ, AJ, etc etc, for value is usually the best option. So $275 doesn't look all that out of the ordinary for a value hand, but it is a lot bigger than half pot so it puts on more pressure. If you bet like $400 it might make them think something is suspect and decide to be a hero.

    On the other hand I don't like small bet sizes either. You already bet $125 and she called. I think the chances she was on a draw or was hoping to hit some card are pretty low. So if she called $125 begrudgingly once, she might just sigh call something like $175 or $200.

    I also think there is the possibilty present that your bluff is going to blow up in your face. You said she would play top set this way on the flop, and I agree with that. I might even check call with top set here. But 2 straight draws come in on the turn, its pretty unlikely youre calling pre and playing 2,4 this way, but 6,4 is open ended on the flop. If I check called with top set on the flop and the open ended draw just came in, I'd probably be a little uncomfortable also. More conservative players are scared of draws coming in and she could have just check called the turn with that top set again hoping the board would pair. It did...

    I don't think she check calls with KK-1010 twice. I think if she is very tight she just folds those hands on the turn, since it really looks like you have an Ace. Every once and a while some players loose their minds though and just call down all the way down with KK on a A high board out of frustration too.




  • kaboojiekaboojie Posts: 518Subscriber
    I wouldn’t normally flat an UTG open in mp w/KTs. Especially the V you describe. It’s probaly close, but I would prob nit it up here a bit.

    AP- OTR Id prob go close to pot. Maybe $325. This very much looks like a pp that is worried about Ax. It’s possible she slow played AA or 77 but it’s such a narrow range, I wouldn’t worry about.
    Thanked by 1CycleV
  • ohsnapzbrahohsnapzbrah Posts: 632Subscriber
    Not sure I would flat KTs against an UTG preflop raise, especially since you classified her as a tight player. A 3bet bluff may be an option, but too often we are going to run the risk of RIO.

    We're taking a fairly polarized line here by betting the river. The 7 pairing is pretty bad for us as we now have fewer 77 in our range, if this lady is thinking in those terms. We block AK and KK and it's been determined that she probably doesn't have a big A.

    I think I like a pot sized bet. We can bet larger when we have a polarized range, and a large bet seems like it would put the most pressure on a tight lady who seems to be uncomfortable. We do have 55 and 77 that we can balance the bluff out with, and we have one of the better hands we can have to bluff. I like KQ/KJ/QJss better, but we still block KK.

    I think as has been said, a small bet will just get called since she already called what would be a rough equivalent to the small bet on the turn. We could go medium sized, like $250, but I think with our blocker and live read that we want to be able to put a bit more pressure on her. I think I would use a medium bet size as a bluff with a hand like 65ss or 98ss, hands where we don't have a blocker so we have to give our bluff a slightly better price.
  • CycleVCycleV Posts: 1,197Subscriber
    I'd go 300, since we really need KK-JJ to fold, but I am in agreement with both above me, I would've folded pre.
  • ClockClock Posts: 1,133Subscriber
    Let me add this before I do a reveal.
    When I'm betting the turn, I think she still has stubborn big PP in her range, but after she calls me, I really doubt she does any more.
    On the river, at this point, i'm putting her on some weak Axs. Maybe 1 outta 20 times she still has QQ or KK, but mostly it's like ATs or A9s something like that.

  • Oback2Oback2 Posts: 208Subscriber
    Fold or 3b pre.

    Just give up on river, it’s okay to have 2 barrel bluffs and give ups here. You want her to be x/calling with the nut draw to bluff her off of it here on the river. You really aren’t repping much on this river.
  • ClockClock Posts: 1,133Subscriber
    Oback2 wrote: »
    Fold or 3b pre.

    I don't think 3betting her UTG open is a good idea.
    She's never continuing with anything we beating and we're crushed a lot, so it's WAWB situation.
    I know I'm behind her UTG open range, but I'm in position with suited broadway vs very predictable opponent, so I think it's an easy call pre.
    Oback2 wrote: »
    You really aren’t repping much on this river.
    Why not? :???:
    I'm definitely playing a AJ+ this way. That's AJo+ ... A LOT of combos.
    Perhaps sizing would be slightly different, perhaps not, either way she doesn't know that.

  • FuzzypupFuzzypup Posts: 2,581Subscriber
    $275 is about right. You want to be the least she will fold that looks valuee to a fish. $275 is a scary amount.

    vs a pro that actually thinks with math then you can polarize because his thoughts are on math.
    So if the river comes and I think I am ahead 33% of the time and you bet 3/4psb I am calling. If you bet 4/3psb I am folding.... I think it's math. But for fish just make a smaller scary bet

    Now if their calling range is polarized then you bet small. Either they are calling or they are not, Either they have busted draws or TPGK.
  • Oback2Oback2 Posts: 208Subscriber
    edited September 2018
    You’re flatting AJo as well? Not 3b AK? You have some serious preflop leaks that you tend to find silly justifications for. Also, going for AJ on 3 streets would be pretty thin here. I suggest you nail down preflop and choose bluff combos wiser to improve your WR
  • ClockClock Posts: 1,133Subscriber
    Oback2 wrote: »
    You’re flatting AJo as well? Not 3b AK? You have some serious preflop leaks that you tend to find silly justifications for.

    Nah...
    You need to be able to recognize players and situations and not play like a bot or a nit to maximize your WR.

    And btw- yes I would flat AK in this particular setup ..of course!!!
    Why would I want to iso her and let the donk/station behind me off the hook?
    That's just not smart.
    Oback2 wrote: »
    Also, going for AJ on 3 streets would be pretty thin here. ..... choose bluff combos wiser to improve your WR

    That's a logical contradiction.
    If it's too thin then this is good bluff spot or vise versa..cannot be both :???:
    I suggest you nail down your logic to improve your WR :tu:
  • Oback2Oback2 Posts: 208Subscriber
    Good luck with your average reg goals of 2018
  • CountRoblivionCountRoblivion Posts: 54Member
    Clock wrote: »
    Oback2 wrote: »
    Also, going for AJ on 3 streets would be pretty thin here. ..... choose bluff combos wiser to improve your WR

    That's a logical contradiction.
    If it's too thin then this is good bluff spot or vise versa..cannot be both :???:
    I suggest you nail down your logic to improve your WR :tu:

    I do not believe Oback meant that the board itself was a bad spot to bluff, merely that you should choose other hands to do it with.

    For example, 98s works better as a bluff here because you unblock K :s: Q :s: , K :s: J :s: , and J :s: T :s: , so there are more hands that missed but still have you beat that you can fold out. His response also implies without directly mentioning that if you bluff this spot every time it comes up, people are not going to be folding to your bets for very long. Picking which specific combos you're going to bluff will help ensure you're bluffing with the right frequency.

    Personally, I think you should have very few bluffs on this board against the described player. Your read of weakness is entirely predicated on the assumption that she would bet a big ace on the flop. Maybe she would, but maybe she wouldn't. Taken alone, it feels a bit flimsy to build a case for a river bluff, especially after she calls the turn.
    Thanked by 1Oback2
  • SonnySonny Posts: 390Subscriber
    edited September 2018
    @Clock

    I definately agree that 3 betting pre is awful. That said, I would probably just fold pre. I think by calling you really have to crush the flop to ever win here, 2 pair or bettor. Sure sometimes you might hit top pair and get one street of value, but even if you hit the King it may not be good. So youre probably checking back/down when called. So I'd probably just fold pre. I see your reason for calling, but I would just give up if we dont smash the flop.

    I agree that flatting AK against a tight utg opening range and bad players behind is the best option if you had AK. Its slightly deceptive since a lot of players would 3 bet AK so we can get paid by a lot of hands when we do flop a pair, but also we're not inflating a pot that we're going to miss a lot of the time.
    The other day I flat AK to a utg raise... then the SB 3 bets.. I flat again with AK and everyone else folds... flop Ace high... I double up against AJ. The opponent even said out loud before he called, "you never have AK here."
    Also if we 3 bet AK, she might raise/get it in, and we never have the best hand when that happens. Sure she might have QQ and we're only a slight underdog, but I'm pretty sure we're supposed to be good enough to always get the money in as a favorite.

    As far as AJ? I think calling with AJ suited is good, but I might let go of most of the AJ off hands.
  • ClockClock Posts: 1,133Subscriber
    So like I said I was very confident that at this point V had some Ax type of a hand (AT at the most)

    HERO bet 350 and V tanked for literally 5 min before finally very reluctantly calling with A 4

    I think I almost got it through lol
    It seems like a must bluff spot vs this opponent when her hand is so face up.

    So I was just wondering if in spots like that it's better to just always overbet like 5-600 to ensure a fold? I thought 350 was a pretty large bet, but perhaps not?

    Bet very small to get great price on a bluff? I think I would get snapped If I bet like 150...




  • ohsnapzbrahohsnapzbrah Posts: 632Subscriber
    Clock wrote: »

    I don't think 3betting her UTG open is a good idea.
    She's never continuing with anything we beating and we're crushed a lot, so it's WAWB situation.
    I know I'm behind her UTG open range, but I'm in position with suited broadway vs very predictable opponent, so I think it's an easy call pre.

    This is extremely dangerous thinking. We just call a tight UTG preflop raise in position with a massive RIO hand because we think we will be able to outplay her. What if players behind us come along? What if we see a T hi or K hi flop? What if she isn't willing to fold an overpair when we apply pressure on boards that are unfavorable for her? I agree that there are a lot of flops that we should be able to steal from her, but she is winning much more often when the hand goes to the turn and river, when the pot gets large. I'd 100% prefer 87s or 64s as a flat than KTs, because now we don't have RIO and we will just win much more often on the turn and river on a variety of boards. Plus, we can still steal from her on the flop on boards where she just xf.
  • ClockClock Posts: 1,133Subscriber

    This is extremely dangerous thinking. We just call a tight UTG preflop raise in position with a massive RIO hand because we think we will be able to outplay her. What if players behind us come along? What if we see a T hi or K hi flop? What if she isn't willing to fold an overpair when we apply pressure on boards that are unfavorable for her? I agree that there are a lot of flops that we should be able to steal from her, but she is winning much more often when the hand goes to the turn and river, when the pot gets large. I'd 100% prefer 87s or 64s as a flat than KTs, because now we don't have RIO and we will just win much more often on the turn and river on a variety of boards. Plus, we can still steal from her on the flop on boards where she just xf.

    I'd also prefer 87s (not sure about 64s), but I disagree about RIO.
    I can easily get away from TP vs. this predictable opponent.
  • AmicusAmicus Posts: 190Subscriber
    edited October 2018
    Why would you ever fold pre getting 50:1 on her stack with suited broadways in position? It's not like you have to pay off three streets if you hit a pair.

    I don't think KTs is much worse than 98s. If you hit a K, you can sometimes get two streets if she's playing in a way to indicate that she has a pocket pair below a K. Plus, when you have a straight, she's more likely to have a monster that you can cooler whereas with 98s, you hate having the bottom end of a straight. With that being said, I would probably see a flop for 20 against her with KTs and 98s and 64s. I would draw the line at approximately 64s and probably fold 63s 42s etc

    You don't have to triple barrel every time you're bluffing. Sometimes, the best price is a check. It depends on how she perceives you and bet sizing. I.e. some villains are even more likely to call huge sizing because they think it looks more polarized. Some fold because they don't want to lose that much. You have some players who will fold KK if you just bet another 125 because they don't think you would bet that small as a bluff and some who call just because it hurts less.
  • fozbofozbo Posts: 144Subscriber
    edited October 2018
    50:1 on her stack? I think that's a huge assumption, what boards are we stacking her in? Are we getting all the money on a KT3r board when she holds AA?, or an a Q9J board when she holds AA?
  • AmicusAmicus Posts: 190Subscriber
    edited October 2018
    1000/20 = 50

    Don't fold a decent hand in position when you only have to pay 2% of the effective stack and the villain isn't that great of a player. How much trouble can we really get in when we hit a K and we know her preflop range.

    I'm not saying that we'll stack her every time we have a monster, just that we're deep enough to have a lot of post flop play and therefore shouldn't fold. KTs is a decent hand. It's not like she's a world class player who will play perfectly against us every time. If you're not that confident in your game or don't think you particularly have a skill edge against her, then sure, fold. If Bart opened, KTs would probably be a toss up for me
    Thanked by 1Clock
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