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Flopped nuts then paired board river big bet

ello' Lords and Lasses of the felt!

Effective stacks $360
$420 Hero A T on BTN

UTG($360) raises to $21, HJ calls, Hero calls, and BB calls.

($79) Flop: K Q J

UTG bets $30 and only Hero calls.

($139) Turn: K Q J 9

UTG checks, Hero bets $60, and UTG calls.

($259) River: K Q J 9 Q :s:

UTG leads for $100 with $175ish behind. Hero ???

I ruled out TT and QJ from this villain. He was loose but more on the call side of loose. Not raising with weak holdings especially from UTG. I ruled out TT because he would not have checked turn. So we beat AA, AK, and AQ but lose to KK, KQ, QQ, JJ, and possibly even 99.

I've only played with this gentleman once before but it was very brief. So far in the first hour 1/2 he has only ever bet when he is going for value. Usually it is a decent size bet. The only weird hand that I saw him bet for value on river and showdown was 9 :s: 5 :s: He made two pair on the river and was just check calling most of the way.
From his preflop bet sizing and how the hand played out. I put him on JJ and I folded. The 9 was the worst card in the deck. I get so little information from his hand when his entire range has to check call except TT. When he checks he no longer has TT. He told me on his way out that he had AQos and thought he could get me off of a worse T then I had. I still feel like more than not, my fold was correct. Opinions?


  • JLBJJLBJ Posts: 172Subscriber
    I would definitely fear being beat with this line, but it’s still a call getting 3.5-1.

    If he shoved his whole $275, it’s probably a fold.
    Thanked by 1PrimoVictor
  • FuzzypupFuzzypup Posts: 2,577Subscriber
    #1 raise the flop. if he bets this board it at least means it hit him.... So plan your hand and follow the action with these scenarios

    TPTK Play A - BC, XBC.... if he has a weak hand he isn't calling much OTR if at all.
    TPTK Play B - BRC. XBF..... same amount as play A or more.

    SET/2P Play C - TPTK Play A - BC, XBC, XBC do you maximize the amount you win?
    TPTK Play A - BRC. XBC, XBC - you maximize your winnings and if he bombs the river you actually could better fold.

    Pretty simple he is rarely betting this flop with a weak hand so get as much value NOW NOW NOW. Because even if he has a weak hand he isn't putting in another dime and has a tiny chance to catch up.

    As played yea I call getting 3.5:1
    Thanked by 1PrimoVictor
  • Letmewin1Letmewin1 Posts: 1,244Member
    Flop can go either way, raising and calling both have merit.
    I’d size larger OTT with $139 in the middle I think $90-$100 seems cool.
    Calling isn’t the worst option.
    Thanked by 1PrimoVictor
  • fozbofozbo Posts: 144Subscriber
    edited October 2018
    AP I might just call river, very villain dependent
    Thanked by 1PrimoVictor
  • BeatsmeBeatsme Posts: 603Subscriber
    As played I prob call getting this price.

    The main thing to take away from thus hand imo is you should be raising this flop! I agree 100% with fuzzy on this one. Villain raised utg then bet this flop... he prob has a hand he isnt folding wether its AK AA KQ all the sets.... all this and we flopped the nuts. We need to raise now so we can easily get the money in before the river. And we need to do it now before an action kiling card falls ott.

    What if a T falls ott and he has KK as played you bet the turn 60 and he calls hoping to pair the board. River bricks he has 270 left in his stack. Will he put that much in when the board has a one liner to a A?
    Thanked by 2CycleV PrimoVictor
  • kaboojiekaboojie Posts: 518Subscriber
    I agree that raising flop here is best. His UTG open range has very likely gotten a piece of this flop and very good chance he calls a raise.

    AP- I think the river is a must call. Odds too good to fold.
    Thanked by 1PrimoVictor
  • ohsnapzbrahohsnapzbrah Posts: 632Subscriber
    I'd almost 100% raise the flop. Reason for this is because this flop should smack UTG's range. We also block his AA and AK, which makes it more likely that his holdings err towards two pair/sets than one pair hands. So we can get quite a bit of value.

    There is merit to flatting. 9, T, and A kind of suck, as does pairing the board. So 19 cards in the deck kind of suck for us. But IMO on a board that favors villains that have a big range advantage, I'd rather get the money in as fast as possible.

    Turn is fine. River is bleh. We have a straight soooooo much after we bet the turn and he still bets into us. There are approximately 15 combos that beat us (assuming he is opening KQs, KQo, and QJs but not QJo). I don't know what stake level this is, as this could tilt the decision one way or the other. If it's 2/5, I think we call all day. If it's 1/3 or 1/2, I kind of pause because that opening sizing is the exact kind that I would expect from a hand like JJ. I think we still call though because he can still have some Tx, and we beat all the Tx. We also just need to find like 4.5 combos of hands that we beat.

    (BTW, I'd fold or 3bet preflop to such a large sizing. Flatting isn't bad, but the sizing seems so large and from UTG that it's pretty borderline)
    If what he told you is true, it's good recognition on his part but bad execution. That card is so good for his range and so bad for our range that, in a theory sense, he could easily get away with jamming river with his entire range.
    Thanked by 1PrimoVictor
  • CycleVCycleV Posts: 1,196Subscriber
    You absolutely have to start funneling money into the middle on the flop.
    It's never a good idea to put V's on one exact hand. You can put them on a range, sure, but none of us are so good that we can call out exact hands except in rare circumstances.
    Thanked by 1PrimoVictor
  • pokertimepokertime Posts: 2,194Subscriber
    Raise flop, bet more turn, call river.
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