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Do we have enough to make a river bluff?

Just played this hand and want to get some feedback.... 2/5 nl 1k cap
Hero opens in mp with acqs to 30 (standard open) cutoff calls and villain in bb calls. Villain is a winning reg. Respect his game. Good timing with his bluffs value bets thinly, etc... solid thinking player.
Effective stacks are 1400 villain has me covered
Flop q73ccc
Checks to me I bet 45. Can get value from worse and have equity against made hands — thoughts on the flop bet??? Cutoff folds and villain check raises to 145. I call seems standard??
Turn 5d
He leads for 285 large sizing is concerning but I still feel like it’s a call??? and I make the call
River 7
He bets 425 at this point I know I’m beat but tanked because I thought if I jammed it would be hard for him to call but my jam would only be for 500 more. I thought better of it and folded.
My question is does anyone see this as a good spot to turn my hand into a bluff and jam the river?
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Comments

  • hustlinhustlin Posts: 366Subscriber
    As played. I would just play your line. Folding to the river bet.

    Jamming on river is not a +EV play. Just because you don't have enough chips left. Hero will most likely look you up. Just because the odds are quite favorable. If you have SAY u go 1k+ in chips over the top. Than I can see it being a great play. You block QQ, 77 for quads is unlikely. U can get worse flushes to fold.

    if you want to make a play. I believe the turn is the place to do it. if you want to steal it from the villain. its pretty high variance and you need the right dynamic.
    Thanked by 1CycleV
  • RagingOwlRagingOwl Posts: 172Member
    edited August 2018
    You say that villain is a good player, so then there's probably zero chance he expects you to fold to his check/raise with that sizing. That's a value bet. Clearly. Here's about a dozen and a half flush combos, plus sets, plus 2pairs, plus (and I'm being super-generous here) two combos of KcQx. (what other bluffs could he have? What bluffs in this spot with this sizing???)

    7d7h, 7d7s, 7h7s, 3d3h, 3d3s, 3h3s, KcJc, KcTc, JcTc, Kc9c, Jc9c, Tc9c, Kc8c, Jc8c, Tc8c, 9c8c, Qd7d, Qh7h, 9c6c, 8c6c, 9c5c, 8c5c, 6c5c, 6c4c, 5c4c, Qd3d, Qh3h, 7d3d, 7h3h, 7s3s, KcQd, KcQh

    We have 38% equity against that range, and we only need 26% to make the call. However, we have to seriously weight the possibility that we don't get to showdown. I think a strong case can be made for a fold here. Your equity here is based on seeing both turn and river cards, and that's really not a guarantee at this point. And you do not have the express odds to draw to just the turn. Villain's range is very heavily tilted toward value. Folding would be the exploitative play.

    Turn is a clear fold. We need 30% to call. Against the range stated above, we only have 25%, and I'm not sure we can count on implied odds.

    If we drop the KcQx from his range, then the numbers get alot worse for us. Which makes me like a flop fold even more.
  • HomelessPizzaHomelessPizza Posts: 15Subscriber
    edited August 2018
    Against a standard V, I think this line is right since it's very unlikely we can get them off any flush. I also think a standard V is not going for 3 streets with a set on this board.

    But against this V I think he is capable of bet-folding sets/ mid flushes when we make a super nutted looking raise OTT. A jam OTT is very profitable

    @RagingOwl - I think you are ranging this guy incorrectly. You need to remove many of those combos...eg a winning reg is never calling w/ 95s or 73s
    Thanked by 1CycleV
  • RagingOwlRagingOwl Posts: 172Member
    @RagingOwl - I think you are ranging this guy incorrectly. You need to remove many of those combos...eg a winning reg is never calling w/ 95s or 73s
    Doesn't matter. He still has virtually 0 bluffs.
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