$2/5 $500 cap at the Bellagio
Just sat down in the game so I have no reads. Everyone has me covered since I sit at about 5:30 am. I like to get to the game between 3-5ish on Saturday mornings since everyone is usually good and drunk. People are stuck or up a good deal so its generally a good time for action.
Game is 5 handed due to it being late and 2 people being away from the table.
Hero has 7♦ 7♥ in the SB with about $540eff
Utg limps ~$1200
Button raises to $25
BB calls ~$2k? (A lot, didnt have an exact count)
Utg calls ~$900
7♣ 6♥ 2♦
Button bets $65
I check raise to $165
Button calls $165
I lead $200
I check with $150 behind
After the button calls my very strong looking check raise on the flop. I range him on a very premium hand, basically over pairs or possibly hes getting sticky with an AK, AQ type hand however I highly doubt it. I think I'm mostly up against over pairs. The only draws are 98 or 54. 85 is also open ended but I highly discount that posibility. I don't think any of these hands are really in most $2/5 players pre flop raising ranges, however he did raise on the button so they are slight possibilities. I think if anything 98ss is more likely than 45ss pre. Either way I don't really suspect either of these draws to call a check raise on the flop, since its very unlikely that he will get to see a free river since I check raised the flop, which means a turn lead is coming almost 100% of the time and he'a not getting a good price just for one card.
The 9 on the turn does bring in 85 but again, I have a hard time seeing someone open 85 over a limper. If he has 98 now he has top pair with his open eneded draw. Still though I feel like JJ+ is very likely here.
I really don't like the Broadway card coming in on the river. If I put him on an overpair, an overpair just made a better set. Am I loosing value by not shoving river? Backdoor Clubs also come in on on the river, but I have a hard time putting him on anything that connectscts with that since he raised pre, so he probably doesn't have 6♣ 2♣ as the pfr. I suppose he could have made a very light float with like AK suited on the flop, but don't see that being realistic. We're never folding once we get to the river right?