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Crush Live PLO Video No 57: Variance Management in PLO And Variance Masterclass

CLP_CraigCLP_Craig Posts: 772Administrator
Free Lunch examines if we should consider spots to lower our variance in PLO, provides guidelines on ways to lower variance, and takes a deep dive into variance. Bringing in new research from decision theory he raises the question " is EV always the right framework for evaluating decisions in poker"

Episode Posts at 11 AM PST.



  • FreeLunchFreeLunch Posts: 1,311Pro
    The video I mentioned at the end is

    I had planned on spending more time on the last part of the video but the video was getting really long. Also - its the last part where I still need to work the "if this is true what do we do" part of my own logic. I do think its true that poker (other than limit) has multiplicative aspects in the result we want - bigger bankroll. Since that is true then per Peters thinking about poker decisions only as EV decisions is a mistake and we should be thinking more about the time series effect of our decisions on our goal.

    There has to be some way to take this observation and turn it into useful guidance - something like a guideline of when to lower bet sizes or avoid low EV risks that scales somehow to bankroll differently than Kelly does. For a very well bankrolled person playing low variance games this is likely a non issue. But the higher the game variance (PLO ) the more likely it becomes smart to think about time series and thus reduce risks that have low EV/variance at some point (Im just not sure what that point is)
    Thanked by 1noregrets
  • FreeLunchFreeLunch Posts: 1,311Pro
    I should have also mentioned - this is also a new math approach to what Taleb has been talking about as a black swan. So the way he would put it is that this shows we undervalue survival when we only measure risk using EV
    Thanked by 1noregrets
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