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Yet another PLO spot for Cycle

1/2, $5 bring in, uncapped BI. It's a 3-table must-move system, I just got bumped to 2nd table along with a very happy, very drunk guy. He has about $460, I have about $525, everyone else at the table has over a grand, and most are waaay better and richer than hero. (I was on the list for 1/3 and got called right after this hand, naturally.) Thoughts on not just my decisions but my reasoning greatly appreciated.

One limp, V1 is the drunk guy in EP2, pots to $20. I am next to act with A K Q 5 :s:. I see no point in trying to iso, it'll never get through, so I call. V2 in HJ calls, one blind and EP limper call.

Flop $100 JT8 . EP checks, drunk bets $70. I elect to just call, reasoning that there isn't value that I can get from worse hands, and strong hands or draws aren't going anywhere anyway. Make sense?
Anyway, V2 MAAG, headphones, no table chatter at all, stack covers the table, raises to $300. He has to know there's zero chance the drunk will fold so I assume this is pretty damn strong. He also didn't pot it, so I assume he wants a call or two? Folds back to drunk who shoves for $360 total. So there's $830 in the middle, it's about $300 for me to call, and I'd have about $130 back.



  • FreeLunchFreeLunch Posts: 1,311Pro
    Has drunk guy been agro?

    Pre: I agree that there is no point in trying to iso - because it rarely works and also your hand is only ok. A three card hand in middle position is only ok. Im not folding it, but its not a raise. So I agree so far.

    Flop. 13 outs. Decent not amazing. Good viability. No current showdown value. No reason to think villain will outplay you later. Calling does lower SPR to the point where you are committed unless a bad card comes so calling vs someone who will represent cards that hurt you when they dont have them might be a mistake, but thats not likely the case here. So calls fine.

    Villain 2 -Well that just sucks but now we need to think ranges - does this range seem reasonable : Acc,(QJ97+,QT97+,QT87+), TJ, TT, JJ

    If so you have 35% heads up vs V2. If they both have that range you have 23%. The drunks range being weaker than that probably helps but there are probably a lot more sets than draws in V2 hand. So is a shity spot now as you are a dog with something close to the right price. Interestingly, the 5 in your hand does not really matter (I was thinking this might be a good example of why 4 card hands are so much better than 3 ) as a T or J would not have changed much - you wanted a 9 pre. You cant call to fold so its either fold or jam. If you are short rolled or want to keep variance down I have no problem folding now tho long run the +ev play is jam, its not a huge +ev play.

    Thanked by 1CycleV
  • CycleVCycleV Posts: 1,196Subscriber
    Tx lunch. Guess I learned something from your videos cuz my thinking on every street was pretty much exactly as you laid out. I went into the tank a wee bit, as I buy in short (300-400 depending) so that I can have relatively straightforward decisions, and I don't mind the variance too much. I opted for a fold here, odds were enticing and I like me a good price, but I figured some of my outs are likely to a chop, and obv there's a quadrillion redraw outs for one or maybe both V's.

    I'll post the result in a day or two.
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