I probably made this hand more complicated than it needed to be. I'm sure there will be a lot of "3! pre, raise the flop" advice, but I wanted to keep the station around. If that guy wasn't in the hand, it would've played out more normally. But then it wouldn't be live poker.
V1: solid reg, I think he plays full-time. (There is only one 2/5 table at my casino, and this night, the lineup was ass.) Tighter than average pre (meaning reasonable ranges for most of us), definitely can press people post. I know he plays in some deep plo games, and I know his math game is very strong. (We talked one night about 5 card PLO and he was pretty quick with rattling off equity with various wraps, etc.) I've talked w him before about ranges, I know he will fold hands like ATo to my raises. Just moved to table with over 500, had to top up after 2 aggressive moves otf (one a raise, other a c/r, he had to give up both times, but I don't think he's the type to tilt. Back up to $500
V2: rec, station. Been playing with him 5 hours, has shown virtually no agression pre or post, but calls standard sized bets all day long. Has folded to big bets/3bets/raises consistently (and appropriately) but that's about it. He covers.
Hero: MAWG, to V1 I'm solid, uncreative TAG. V2 may think I'm loose and kinda spewy, my stack has been up and down all night, and I'm pretty loud. $550
V2 limps EP, V1 raises 15, I have AQ ♣ ♣
in CO. Normally a raise, but I want V2 in the hand (and possibly BTN/blinds, all passive players). Folds back to V2 who calls.
Flop ($45) Q♦
V2 ch, V1 30, I don't think he c-bets air very often on a board that smacks a calling range. I elect to smooth call to keep V2 around, V2 calls.
Turn ($135) 8
: Both V's check to me. I'm not terribly concerned about the straight getting there, and I think it could even entice a hand like QT to call. My goal is to target the likely still wide range of V2, so I bet 65. V2 calls, V1 surprises me wih a c/r to $200, with $220 behind.
I really didn't see what value hands would play this way, and risk giving a free card on such a wet board. QQ, JJ maybe. T9s wouldn't block any pairs so I would fire pretty large with it myself. I guess he assumes I would have raised 2p or sets otf, but he also knows I fast play draws some % of the time. All I can think is, I was basically targeting the station, but he was counting on my turn bet?
Turn I give him all the OP, QJs, T9s, and a couple of bluffs (QTs, JTs). TBH I just don't know if he plays an OP this way, but I don't really know what to give him, in a spot where I could have 44, JJ, T9s.
MP2 64.90% 64.90% 0.00% JJ+, 44, QTs+, JTs, T9s
CO 35.10% 35.10% 0.00% AcQc
I think I have no FE and while it's unlikely, there's still a chance V2 will stick around. So my questions:
1. Calling this turn?
2. What am I doing on blank rivers if he shoves? At that point it would calling $220 to win $820 (assuming V2 folds turn).