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1/3 TP+NFD vs turn c/r

CycleVCycleV Posts: 1,196Subscriber
I probably made this hand more complicated than it needed to be. I'm sure there will be a lot of "3! pre, raise the flop" advice, but I wanted to keep the station around. If that guy wasn't in the hand, it would've played out more normally. But then it wouldn't be live poker. :kiss:

V1: solid reg, I think he plays full-time. (There is only one 2/5 table at my casino, and this night, the lineup was ass.) Tighter than average pre (meaning reasonable ranges for most of us), definitely can press people post. I know he plays in some deep plo games, and I know his math game is very strong. (We talked one night about 5 card PLO and he was pretty quick with rattling off equity with various wraps, etc.) I've talked w him before about ranges, I know he will fold hands like ATo to my raises. Just moved to table with over 500, had to top up after 2 aggressive moves otf (one a raise, other a c/r, he had to give up both times, but I don't think he's the type to tilt. Back up to $500

V2: rec, station. Been playing with him 5 hours, has shown virtually no agression pre or post, but calls standard sized bets all day long. Has folded to big bets/3bets/raises consistently (and appropriately) but that's about it. He covers.

Hero: MAWG, to V1 I'm solid, uncreative TAG. V2 may think I'm loose and kinda spewy, my stack has been up and down all night, and I'm pretty loud. $550

V2 limps EP, V1 raises 15, I have AQ in CO. Normally a raise, but I want V2 in the hand (and possibly BTN/blinds, all passive players). Folds back to V2 who calls.

Flop ($45) Q J 4 V2 ch, V1 30, I don't think he c-bets air very often on a board that smacks a calling range. I elect to smooth call to keep V2 around, V2 calls.

Turn ($135) 8 :s: Both V's check to me. I'm not terribly concerned about the straight getting there, and I think it could even entice a hand like QT to call. My goal is to target the likely still wide range of V2, so I bet 65. V2 calls, V1 surprises me wih a c/r to $200, with $220 behind.

I really didn't see what value hands would play this way, and risk giving a free card on such a wet board. QQ, JJ maybe. T9s wouldn't block any pairs so I would fire pretty large with it myself. I guess he assumes I would have raised 2p or sets otf, but he also knows I fast play draws some % of the time. All I can think is, I was basically targeting the station, but he was counting on my turn bet?

Turn I give him all the OP, QJs, T9s, and a couple of bluffs (QTs, JTs). TBH I just don't know if he plays an OP this way, but I don't really know what to give him, in a spot where I could have 44, JJ, T9s.

MP2 64.90% 64.90% 0.00% JJ+, 44, QTs+, JTs, T9s
CO 35.10% 35.10% 0.00% AcQc

I think I have no FE and while it's unlikely, there's still a chance V2 will stick around. So my questions:

1. Calling this turn?
2. What am I doing on blank rivers if he shoves? At that point it would calling $220 to win $820 (assuming V2 folds turn).
Tagged:

Comments

  • JLBJJLBJ Posts: 172Subscriber
    Man. Weird spot. C/r to 200 with only 220 behind after you and V2 put in 65 seems super strong, but like you said, would he really risk letting a value hand check through on such a draw-heavy board? Maybe he was pot-controlling AA or KK, but decided you were just betting because he checked and V2 couldn’t have much because he just called? Still seems like he might jam instead of this smaller raise.

    If I’m beat in this spot, he did a great job of confusing me. I’m not folding. Question is whether to call and try to get V2’s money in there. Of course, that really leaves you in an awkward spot on a river K, T or 9.

    Don’t know if it’s right play, but I’d jam.
  • deadinaditchdeadinaditch Posts: 245Subscriber
    Yeah, this is weird. Based on V1:description as a solid reg this line is designed to do something, but what? I think you can safely remove overpairs from his range. As you say, would a decent player ever take this line? I don't think so.
    It it looks like the turn improved him, so 88 and T9. I mean I wouldn't risk a check getting through on the turn but it's really the only thing that makes sense.

    I'm not sure purpose jamming will serve. If you get there on the river you can probably get the rest in. If you brick then all you have is a bluff catcher.

    I'm confused too but I go with call and fold the river to any reasonable bet.
  • CycleVCycleV Posts: 1,196Subscriber
    I'm glad y'all feel confused as well. I'll post results in a bit, see if anyone else wants to chime in.
  • neverlearn2neverlearn2 Posts: 2,862Subscriber
    edited June 2018
    i dont like flatting flop because we still just rep flushes so even if he has the K :clubs: he still gonna be protceting himself from that. I know our preflop action probably has a lot more lower FDs in theory.

    i dont mind pre

    as played i think we get raised here a lot by a wide value range but unsure on villain tendencies. Id rather check back turn and go for a polarized sizing on river. IDK maybe its too face up.
    Thanked by 1CycleV
  • FriendlyFishFriendlyFish Posts: 123Member
    9c10c makes the most sense to me so i’m just gonna put him on that one combo of hand :P
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