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PLO facing a 4! with mid rundown

CycleVCycleV Posts: 1,196Subscriber
1/2, $5 bring in. Uncapped so the game plays very aggressive and splashy. V1 tough TAG, V2 full time pro, knows the math better than most. (We've talked some.) Like to build pots pre. My stack is $500, the two relevant V's each have over 2K. It's a 3-table must move system, this is the 2nd table and given how deep most of the table is, I'm just a fly on the wall in this game. Hero is known as tight, a PLO noob, but frankly my image is pretty irrelevant.

TBH I don't have all the limpers in the hand tracked correctly, but I know the 4! bet and stack sizes are correct. V1 utg raises to 10, a few calls, V2 in HJ raises to 20 (possibly 25), CO calls, I call otb with 8765 sooted to the 8. In hindsight it's not great(?) with the action being open to utg, who indeed pots for 185. One limper and V2 call, I'm closing the action. (EDIT: It's possible one of the blinds called pre but pre-loaded that he was going to fold. I wrote "closing" in my notes, but I can't work ot how the 4! worked out to 185. Doesn't change my question about my decision, but I want to get the HH as accurate as possible.)

This seems like a perfect spot to see a flop and go with it if I flop well, even though if you'd told me before the action that I'd have to plunk down 2 bills with this hand, I'd never be in this spot.

Please critique my thinking! TYIA
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Comments

  • ddzddz Posts: 152Subscriber, Professional
    I would be super wary calling when there is a min open, a few calls, and then a supposedly good villain min 3-bets. Is he getting fancy and trying to set up a pot-repot scenario? I think there is a very high chance that u put in $20 and have to put in a lot more to see a flop
  • betgobetgo Posts: 35Subscriber
    Calling is probably OK, but is a super big gamble. If the first raiser is trapping with AA, you have enough equity either 3-ways if the 4 bettor has a big pair or high rundown or HU with dead money if the 4 bettor folds to a 5 bet. If the 3-bettor calls or folds, you go to the flop with significantly less than pot behind, so you need to get it in a lot. However, it is probably a profitable situation, as you can fold on many high or very low flops that you miss. So it is probably $EV+ to call, but you are gambling for $200-500.
  • CycleVCycleV Posts: 1,196Subscriber
    edited May 2018
    Yeah I knew it was a gamble but there was almost no way anyone was folding. Maybe if I backraise and then the OR puts in a 6bet shove, then it goes HU, maybe. But my thought was that it is better to go MW for 200 with this type of hand, where I can realize all my equity on favorable flops, rather than all in pre and HU for 5. I just want to make sure that makes sense, and see what holes are in me thinking.
  • TerpHimselfTerpHimself Posts: 328Subscriber
    Going to use Pro Poker Tools to take a look at this. Both FreeLunch and I have produced content warning about these types of hands.

    Let's give each opponent a 30% range to keep it simple, though V1 and V2 could actually be tighter.

    You're a 60/40 dog heads up vs a top-30% opening range, but if you combine the three other players, their equity drops to an even 25% split across the board b/c of the likelihood they can share cards/outs.

    So you need to call $165 to try and win the current pot of $585-ish, which is the right price. Here's the problem, you now have 40% of your stack in, and with the current pot of 750, your SPR is about .4. Your equity is calculated by seeing 5 cards, and if you ever fold flops where you hit a tiny piece, you are giving up too much.

    Calling this spot and then only firing when we smash flops isnt going to show a long term profit. Since we likely can't fold out all three opponents on flops where we catch a piece but would prefer to fold out the V's equities, we now are at the mercy of variance. Plus if we every make a folding mistake on the flop, that's a disaster. Are you OK with calling off on an AQ5 flop when V1 leads pot and the other two fold? B/c you have enough equity to call vs his range given the pot size even though 95% of the time you'll be behind heading to the turn.

    Initial equity math says we can make the call, but the fact that we are neutered by our low SPR means it's a long term losing play.

    Thanked by 1iamallin
  • betgobetgo Posts: 35Subscriber
    Why would you put them on top 30% hands with that kind of action? Likely they have AA, KK, or high rundowns. I did simulations on propokertools and this hand is 31% 3-way against 2 30% hands, 33% against 2 top 10% hands, and 34% against 2 top 5% hands. 35% against AA and KK, and 35% against AA and a 5% hand. That is, it plays better 3-way against really strong hands, which are usually both high hands and maybe both include pps.

    If you get HU against AA or something, you are maybe 40 or better and there is dead money with people folding, so you have pot odds. Plus you see that you are likely crushed on some flops and fold them, so that is an advantage.

    It is a huge close to even gamble, but calling is probably $EV+.
  • CycleVCycleV Posts: 1,196Subscriber
    Thanks Terp and betgo, this was good stuff.

    Terp, you're right I wouldn't have called HU on AQ5, even though I watched one of the videos recently that talked about how much equity 1p hands can have. FWIW I wouldn't need to smash a flop, any kind of draw would be good to go at this SPR. And I don't have PPT or really know what 30% range even looks like, bad I know. My thinking was closer to betgo's, I put V1 tighter, while V2, well he could be at 30% easily.

    V1 and V2's hands were turned over by the river, so I know what preflop equity I had vs those exact hands (I was fine, but also lucky since both had a suit but not mine; the other caller folded otf), but I do want to learn about what I have vs the ranges.

    Tx again. I haven't played PLO since this night, but I want to keep learning ranges and the like.
  • LABLAB Posts: 3Subscriber
    ***If you can stand the variance***

    Any thoughts on shoving preflop, instead of calling, to allow the raiser to go all in and push the other two players out? You will be a dog on the hand but should be a nice money favorite heads up with the dead money.
  • betgobetgo Posts: 35Subscriber
    I am not sure about pushing, but there are advantages to having 200 in the pot with 300 behind with this hand, as there are many flops where you are obviously crushed by your opponent or opponent's likely range. Also, the hand does play well multiway against likely high hands.
  • betgobetgo Posts: 35Subscriber
    There are advantages to seeing a flop with this hand and like 60% of pot left in your stack. Something like 20-25% of flops you will have less than 15% chance of winning at showdown against a top 10% hand HU. So it is very advantageous to fold the flop. Basically, any flop where you don't have a pair, direct flush draw, or some straight draw, you will likely have less than 15%. You actually need 30% or so chance of winning for it to be close between gii and folding.

    This gives you some advantage over villain, because he can never fold a big pair. He also might incorrectly fold a high rundown on some flops, thinking he is crushed by your range, but actually has sufficient equity against your mid rundown.
  • CycleVCycleV Posts: 1,196Subscriber
    That was pretty much my thinking (rudimentary as it is)
  • FreeLunchFreeLunch Posts: 1,311Pro
    CycleV wrote: »
    My stack is $500, the two relevant V's each have over 2K.

    We should not ignore the mixed stack strategy here - that is our ability to use our stack size to effect the play of the others.

    If we call we can expect V1 to bet a lot of flops - probably pot or close to it. If V1 (supposedly a smart player who might know this) bets enough less than pot then V2 is in the spot that we can reopen the action this make it a lot less likely that V2 continues with only ok equity/visibility. If V1 does bet pot then we have position at least and can make a good decision knowing the price we will be getting.

    That said - calling with 8765 is a variance embracing strategy and there really is no judgement left - folding when we hit anything on the flop is a huge mistake and if you are going to make that mistake you have to fold pre. A board like J72 looks pretty bad, and it really is if V2 also calls, but if V1 leads and especially also if V2 folds we still have to call as we have the right equity, and probably need to call even if V2 calls (we have the right price unless his call narrows his range a lot)

    betgo wrote: »

    This gives you some advantage over villain, because he can never fold a big pair. He also might incorrectly fold a high rundown on some flops, thinking he is crushed by your range, but actually has sufficient equity against your mid rundown.

    This is true and well put. But I would not seek out situations like this - its not a reason to play 8765 in worse positions (not saying anyone has suggested that but for sure people use this logic in earlier positions.)
  • CycleVCycleV Posts: 1,196Subscriber
    Great points. The room I play the most PLO in is a 3-table must move room, and usually I stand up once I'm bumped from the entry table to the 2nd one. But I was waiting for a NLHE seat so usually(!) I play a tight range vs the aggressive deep stacks. I just got caught in the middle here, but ended up in a spot pre where I don't mind the variance, as long as I'm making the right play.
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