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Wierd River donk bet makes me re think my crappy pair.

$5/$10 nl. Villain is 70ish reg who limps with all kinds of crap but folds his air. He's not terrible but is no student of the game. I've got about $2k and he's got me covered.

I open to $40 from CO with 8 :s: 8 and get called by villain in BB.
[$82] A A Q He checks and I bet $70 'cause, why not?
[$222] K I bet $180. Call
[$582] 5 Now he bets $250.
What could he have that would prompt this? Honestly before he bet I thought I was beat for sure but I can't see any weak ace taking this line and wouldn't anything else that beats me would have raised PF?

Comments

  • Purple_DrankPurple_Drank Posts: 28Subscriber
    I wouldn't bet the flop, I'd also bet smaller if I was going to bet for protection. Definitely check the turn! Being an older player I don't expect them to peel every Qx out of the BB. A lot of his Q's are going to be stronger AQ KQ QJ, so barrelling the K doesn't really fold anything out. They can also have J T , J T . It is also very rare that the older generation 3-bet AK, sometimes even Bart will flat AK heads up closing the action out of the BB. I think villain can have a lot more strong hands than you expect and a lead on the river from an older player is almost always strength. However the sizing would lead me to think they do not have a full house, as they tend to bet the strength of their hands, so would expect to see J T or J T if you were to call the river.
  • deadinaditchdeadinaditch Posts: 245Subscriber
    edited May 2018
    He had AT. I'm not sure what made him decide that a toothpick on the river improved his hand. I guess he thought he was trapping me the whole way, and in a sense he was.
  • StonewalledStonewalled Posts: 480Subscriber
    I think a 70s reg can have many Ax here, and even QQ occasionally.

    I think the flop is a check most of the time, although I suppose you could bet it to try to get 99-JJ to fold. Obviously not betting it for value.

    I don't like the turn bet. I think once this kind of player calls the flop on this kind of board, you're almost always behind or unlikely to get value from a draw on the turn.

    The river lead here from this type of player is almost always a strong value hand that doesn't want to risk a check back. I just don't see bluffs in this spot from this kind of player that often. Frankly, I don't see from anyone this often where you led, go bet-bet, and the board smacks your range.
    Thanked by 1CycleV
  • jwitjwit Posts: 35Member
    As mentioned previously, a smaller flop bet is better here. $50 would do the same that $70 would do (any A or Q will continue on either bet). Definitely check the turn. What hands did he call the flop with that a bet will push out? Even if he called with a KJ type hand he now picked up a pair with his straight draw. $250 on the river is very rarely a bluff from this type of player (also what hands would he turn into a bluff after the call on the flop?)
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