This hand is from Poker After Dark | Rumble with Jungle | Day 3
Thursday, September 07, 2017
(1h:38min) ( https://pokergo.com/video/poker-after-dark-972017
6-handed, $300/$600/$1.2K straddle NLHE
Rast HJ (first) raise $3.5k A♥
Haxton call from straddle Q♣
Flop ($8.5K) 3♦
Hax chk, Rast $4.5k, Hax call,
Turn ($17.5K) 3♦
Riv ($17.5K) 3♦
Hax thinks a bit then chk, Rast $11k, Hax c/r $60K,
After the hand:
Rast, '...I kinda fell like I'm supposed to fold, but I wanted to call..."fairly capped range here, I'm just gonna bet river with a hand I know I might get fucked with,"'
Hax: 'I mean, you can have the nuts there.'
R: 'I can, but, I can also just have one pair a lot, and you know, like some of the time that I have the nuts I would bet turn too, so it's like, yeah I know it's not totally capped, but, you definitely have more non-nut strong hands than I do...it's like, how many sets do I really have, you know? Like, you can have a set. I really can't have a set.'
On the flop, it seems like a great spot for Rast to c-bet. Based on configuration he can rep a strong range, and Haxton's range is very wide defending the straddle heads up closing the action, and this flop doesn't connect well with many hands. This reminds me of how Bart often says that part of the reason why he loves QJ is that when we c-bet with overcards to the flop and then we fire a 2nd-barrel we get called (we get value) on turn Q/J and we folds on turn A/K.
Interesting c-bet sizing from Rast. The bet seems a little bit on the larger side. Perhaps Rast chose this sizing because it's less likely to induce a float or bluff from Haxton and maybe gets more folds from better hands immediately on the flop (compared to a 1/3 pot sized bet).
I thought Rast might barrel that turn card to get folds from the part of Hax's range that is AK that peeled the flop (some combos might not 3! pre) or under-pairs to the ten. It seems like we get a decent amount of better hands to fold and it's an easy bet-fold if we get c/r. AJ has insufficient showdown value against Hax's chk/call-flop-chk-river-range to just check back turn hoping to show this down, right?
On the river, Ali comments that an overbet by Haxton would be very "interesting". But doesn't Haxton have too much showdown value here to turn his hand into an overbet-bluff?
Do you think Rast's river bet is too thin, considering that Haxton is our opponent? Once Hax raises, Hax's value range contains probably all three comobs of set of nines, maybe two combos of set of tens (cuz he could !3 pre, etc), maybe one combo of set of jacks, he has some of the KQ (maybe 6 combos), he has at least a few combos of 87, and that's probably it for value-hands. But what about his bluffs? It seems like he could have a lot of bluffs because he has a ton of TX combos, JX combos, pocket-pair-with-blockers like 77/88, maybe some AK combos and other hands that floated the flop and then decided to check river for whatever reason. I expect the frequency of Haxton c/r river with T9 or JT (or any two-pair) here is virtually zero.
Rast was getting 1.8-1 so he has to win 36% of the time to profit. Given that Rast's range is sort-of-capped, and Hax seems to have many more combos of hands he could be turning into a bluff than combos of value-hands, it seems like calling is going to be profitable here. If Haxton is bluffing as often as I suspect here, then it seems like Rast is going to catch a bluff at least 40% of the time. Am I over-estimating how often Haxton is turning one-pair into a bluff here?
I know in general we should focus our efforts on trying to exploit the losing players, and not what to do against legends, but hands like this are sometimes a lot of fun to think about. Thoughts on this hand?